Market Review: May 11, 2026

Closing Recap

Monday, May 11, 2026

Following another up week, US equity futures came out of the weekend flat. Despite the ongoing US/Iran stalemate, the week saw a neutral start in equites. No incrementally aggressive rhetoric supported further early gains in equities though breadth held about even despite big small-cap outperformance with IWM (+0.79%) versus SPY (+0.18%) and QQQ (+0.07%). Energy (+1.77%), Materials (+1.09%) and Technology (+0.97%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (-0.70%), Consumer Staples (-1.04%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.38%) paced the underperformers with eight sectors gaining versus three declining. In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index registered 69/100 (Greed), up slightly from 66 (Greed) last week but 38 (Fear) last month. Despite later Trump comments that the ceasefire was weak and on massive life support, equities extended gains through the morning.

In data of note today, as another week of earnings gets rolling, it’s worth noting we’ve already heard from 445 S&P 500 companies. Thus far 86% have beaten estimates versus 78% at the same time last year, with an average beat of 25% versus 21% a year ago and an average miss for the laggards of 23% versus 19% last year. Average year/year earnings growth thus far is 26% versus last year’s 13% with median growth of 13% versus 6%. Thus far, Information Technology, Health Care and Industrials have the highest beat percentage, while Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Communication Services have the lowest with the remainder fairly tightly grouped in the middle.

An early afternoon Trump comment about weighing military action against Iran put a little pressure on markets, but not enough to push to red. Heading into the final hour of trading US equities held modest gains with small caps having given up the leadership position they held early. Earnings continue this week and likely will steer direction for the markets absent any significant change in the Iran negotiations, though markets await key inflation data tomorrow with the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and then Producer Price Index (PPI) mid-week.

• June WTI crude futures gained early following President Trump’s rejection of another Iran counterproposal. Later headlines indicating Iran had deployed deep-roaming submarines in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump is once again weighing military action against Iran after also saying the ceasefire is on life support propelled oil higher into the afternoon. For now, oil remains a headline-driven asset, and nothing is likely to change in that regard until the Iran situation is settled. June futures finished the day higher by $2.65/bbl, or +2.78%, at $98.07.
• Treasury yields rise ahead of an expected uptick in U.S. inflation and as tensions rise in the Middle East. President Trump refuses Tehran’s counterproposal for peace talks and says a ceasefire is under "massive life support." April CPI is also due tomorrow. Inflation is now seen as the Fed’s focus and bets on hawkish monetary policy rise. The 10-year yield rises 0.048 bps to 4.411%. The two-year is up 0.054 p.p. to 3.946%

• In Discount retail: Keybanc previewed the sector saying ahead of Q1 earnings for Mass/Dollar Stores, they expect strong results from WMT, TGT, FIVE, and DLTR, and see potentially softer trends for DG and OLLI Overall, believes the consumer was resilient, benefitting from higher tax refunds partially offset by higher gas prices. Keybanc also expects WMT and AMZN to continue to gain share, which remains a competitive threat.
• In Beauty: SBH Q2 adj EPS $0.44 vs. vs. est. $0.41, Q2 comparable sales growth 1.3% and Q2 sales $903M vs. est. $900.8M; tightens FY26 net sales range and reiterates all other metrics; now sees year sales $3.725-$3.750B vs. est. $3.75B.

• In Lodging: TH shares gained after news of a $750M multi-year contract for AI infrastructure community offset weaker earnings and revs, while its Q1 net loss widened and adjusted EBITDA declined, reflecting higher expenses and contract transitions.

• In Utility/Nuclear: CEG Q1 profit topped consensus at $2.74 vs. est. $2.57, helped by rising power demand and contributions from its recently acquired Calpine assets; total Q1 operating revenue came in at $11.12B, above consensus $8.7B and compared to $6.79B y/y.

• In Private Credit: APO has been holding talks to sell MFIC, its publicly listed BDC valued at roughly $3B, the WSJ reported. Talks are ongoing with no guarantee of a deal. MFIC reported a $61M loss last week. KKR largest private-credit fund held by individual investors took a $560 million loss in Q1 when a growing number of loans tipped into default. The write-down was equivalent to about 10% of the fund’s net asset value and defaults in the fund jumped to 8.1% in the first quarter from 5.5% in December, KKR said.
• In Consumer Lending: UWMC raised its bid for TWO to $12.50/share in cash, topping CrossCountry Mortgage’s $12.00 offer. UWMC says holders can also elect 2.3328 UWMC shares, with no cash cap or proration, and is urging investors to vote against the CCM deal on May 19.

• MLTX said it has aligned with the FDA on submission plans and the label strategy for its investigative therapy for a chronic inflammatory skin condition.
• MRNA adds to last Friday’s gains on news last week it is developing a hantavirus vaccine in collaboration with VIC-K following an outbreak on a Dutch cruise ship that left at least three people dead and several seriously ill.
• Healthcare Technology: CERT shares fell after mixed Q1 as EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.11 on inline revs $106.9M while guided year adj ES to $0.35-$0.41, below consensus $0.45 on light revs $395-$405M vs. est. $425.7M.

• E&C Sector: PRIM was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho while lower price target to $135 from $175 saying following the post-earnings selloff, Primoris’ renewable execution issues, which are transitory, are now better reflected in estimates and the stock’s valuation
• In Waste sector: RSG was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus after recent results noting shares have underperformed the Benchmark S&P 500 over the past three months, declining 8% compared to a 7% increase for the broad market saying recent earnings trends have been weaker than the long-term record.
• In Fertilizers: MOS posts Q1 adjusted profit of $0.05 missing the $0.24 consensus and posted a Q1 loss of $258M vs/ year ago profit $238M while withdraws its phosphate production guidance for 2026 as it reviews its operating plan for the rest of the year; adjusts its 2026 capex forecast to $1.25 billion from about $1.5 billion previously.

• In Ai: NVDA rival Cerebras (CBRS) is planning to raise the price range of its initial public offering to $125-$135 per share from $115-$125 per share as soon as Monday, according to Bloomberg. In AI Data Center/infrastructure: IREN announces proposed $2B convertible Senior notes offering due 2033 maturing December 2033; says initial purchasers may buy up to $300M additional notes; NBIS tgt raised to $205 from $175 at Bank America as they are focused on data center capacity ramp ahead of Q1 earnings and expects infrastructure expansion to support continued revenue growth.
• Hardware and Components: DELL was downgraded to Neutral from Buy but raise PT to $243 from $167 at UBS saying the risk/reward going forward is more balanced following strong execution over the past 12 months as the shares are up ~170% vs the S&P 500 up ~30% as Dell’s differentiated tech and supply chain strategy has resulted in strong growth in Ai optimized servers
• In Software: sector remains volatile on earnings (TEAM, FTNT positive results last week and HUBS tumbled on weak commentary) as MNDY reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS $1.15, above consensus $0.93 on better revs rising 24% y/y to $351.3M vs. consensus $339.07M saying its launch of AI Work Platform with native agents contributed to Q1 results; guided Q2 revs $354M-$356M, up 18%-19% Y/y.
• In Optical sector: LITE is set to join the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Index, replacing the real estate services provider CSGP later this month, Nasdaq Global Indexes said late Friday; overall early strength in the momentum sector with GLW, COHR, CIEN, AAOI all showing early gains before paring back.
• In Media: FOXA shares strong early following quarterly results (EPS $1.32 tops $0.97 est.), boosted by strong advertising sales in its sports and news divisions and strength in the media company’s Tubi streaming service; NWSA upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie after Q3 results showed growth across revenue and EBITDA ahead of Visible Alpha consensus, citing robust growth, upside with Dow Jones and AI content deals and an "attractive" valuation for its upgrade. NFLX was sued by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who accused the streaming company of spying on children and other consumers by collecting their data without consent, and designing its platform to be addictive.
• In Telecom; TDS and AD both downgraded to market perform from outperform at Raymond James, which sees limited upside potential in the wake of recent gains.