Market Review: March 25, 2026

Closing Recap

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

U.S. stocks opened higher and held gains most of the day in another quiet and narrow afternoon trading range as investors eagerly await any type of resolution with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Another positive market breadth day as 10 of 11 S&P sectors finished higher with Energy (XLE) the only sector lower, but some more tough talk late day has markets on edge the next 2 days. Late afternoon, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. will hit Iran “harder than they have ever been hit before” if Tehran doesn’t make a deal to end the conflict. “President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell,” she said. “Any violence beyond this point will be because the Iranian regime refused to understand they have already been defeated and refused to come to a deal.” Leavitt said the Iranian regime was looking for an “exit ramp” due to the success of joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. Lots of other market moving parts, but the war remains the main driver, with stocks popping and dropping with each passing headline daily. Then of course in the final hour, Iran foreign minister also weighed in saying there are no talks with the U.S. noting an exchange of messages via mediators “does not mean negotiation” with the U.S….more of the same, to be continued tomorrow.

Details of today’s U.S./Iran talking points to reach compromise/cease fire:

Iran received a 15-point plan from the U.S. overnight aimed at bringing the Middle East conflict to a close. Among them in summary, to dismantle all existing nuclear capabilities; commit never to pursue or develop nuclear weapons; end all uranium enrichment on Iranian territory; hand over its entire stockpile of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); fully dismantle the three main nuclear facilities: Natanz, Isfahan (Esfahan), and Fordow (Fordo); grant the IAEA full, unrestricted access and monitoring of all remaining nuclear sites and activities; abandon the “regional proxy paradigm” (stop supporting and directing proxy groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.); cease funding, arming, and directing proxy militias across the Middle East; limit Iran’s ballistic missile program; restrict missile use strictly to self-defense; ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains fully open for international shipping (no threats or attacks on energy facilities or vessels); end strikes or attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

Iran rejected the U.S. proposal, laying out its own five conditions to end the war, per senior Iranian security official:

A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparation. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

In other news, ARM shares surged in semiconductors after unveiling plans to sell its own semiconductor chips for the first time. @Bluekurtic noted on X, “$VIX spent 18 consecutive days above 20. Only the 25th such streak since 2000. Longer streaks like 50 days typically led to or occurred during deeper corrections. Currently, elevated oil prices are driving volatility. Deescalation is essential before damage becomes lasting.” Also note the SPY closed below its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive days, the longest streak since May. Precious metals rebounded while Treasury yields fell. In other macro news, White House press secretary Leavitt said the long-awaited meeting with President Xi in China will now take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15^th, while the White House will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C. at a later date, to be announced this year.

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $90.32/bbl, down $2.03, or 2.20% while Brent fell -$2/27 or 2.17% to settle at $102.22 per barrel, paring losses late day while Iran reviewed a U.S. proposal to end the war that has disrupted global energy flows from the Persian Gulf. Iran is still reviewing the U.S. proposal to end the war in the Gulf despite its initial negative response, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday.
• U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on reports of progress in peace efforts in the Middle East conflict. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell over 6 basis points at 4.32% after earlier reached a session low of 4.308%. The yield on two-year notes was last down 5 bps at 3.87%. U.S. Treasury yields rose after an auction of $69 billion in two-year notes met underwhelming demand, as market uncertainty persists around the Iran war and elevated oil prices.

 Sector News Breakdown

• In Auto Suppliers: BWA was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research with $68 tgt, following its detailed analysis of their Power Gen opportunity. While some investors are understandably skeptical, the combo of competitive specs, tight supply/demand and a compelling TCO could make this an attractive oppty, which is not priced in after pullback. DAN said plans up to $2B in cumulative share repurchases through 2030.

• In Beauty: COTY tgt cut to $1.50 from $2.50 at Bank America and lowers FY26 estimates due to sales weakness following the conflict in the Middle East as estimate Coty’s exposure to the Middle East is in the MSD % range on revenues, but a larger proportion of profitability given a higher end mix of sales in the region.
• In Boating/RV sector: WGO reported Q2 revs $657.4M vs. est. $627.1M and adj EPS $0.27 above the est. $0.24 while raises fiscal 2026 reported EPS guidance to $1.50-$2.20 from $1.40-$2.10 but maintains rev guidance. Keybanc said Boat Industry data for February’s was -12.5% Y/y was softer than normal seasonality (+low-thirties% vs +mid-fifties% normal sequential), with January revised upward (-8.1% Y/y vs -16.1% Y/y prior). Looking ahead, the firms Marine view remains cautious. BC stronger vs industry (-2.8% Y/y) Ski/Wake: Category -17% Y/y; MBUU softer, MCFT stronger Pontoon: Category -16.6% Y/y; WGO softer.

• Housing sector: The 30y mortgage rate now at a 5-month high at 6.43% after climbing 13bps this week as the rolling 4-week change is now the fastest since January 2025. Weekly USS mortgage market index declined -10.5% to 310.7, lowest since January, in week ended March 20 as per the Mortgage Bankers Assoc (MBA) weekly data; mortgage purchase index falls 5.4% and the refinance index falls 14.6%. In an amazing stat, @Barchart noted on “X” that, “Home Sellers now outnumber Buyers by 630,000, the largest gap ever recorded.”

• Oil Refiners: Raymond James upgraded CVI to Market Perform from Underperform saying its refining portfolio is positioned to perform in a strong margin environment, but this appears reflected in its premium valuation relative to SMID- and large-cap peers. The firm also raised price tgts in the group with DK to $54 from $47, DINO to $75 from $66, MPC to $270 from $210, PARR to $77 from $50, PSX to $205 from $175 and VLO to $290 from $215saying consensus estimates for Q1 may have risen sharply due to oil market and Middle East conflict-driven margin spikes, but short-term refiners may struggle to fully capture these spiky margins.

• In Crypto: CRCL shares bounce after yesterdays’ 20% pullback (its distribution partner COIN fell over -9%) as Bernstein said markets are misreading the Clarity Act, confusing issuers with distributors. The drop has been tied to draft provisions in the Clarity Act that would restrict yield on stablecoin balances. HOOD board approves new share repurchase program authorizing up to $1.5B repurchase.
• Financial Services: AXP launches new graphite business cash unlimited card with $295 annual fee that has unlimited 2% cash back on eligible purchases and 5% back on flights and prepaid hotels through Amex Travel. In FinTech/BNPL, shares of DAVE, SEZL saw notable weakness today.

• APGE 5M share Secondary priced at $70.00.
• AVXL shares declined after saying it withdrew its EU application for experimental Alzheimer’s drug, blarcamesine, after regulators said they could not support approval. The EMA committee has said it was not in a position to give a positive opinion for the drug as an add-on treatment for early-stage patients, company says.
• BEAM said its experimental gene‑editing drug BEAM‑302 showed promising results in an early‑stage study for alpha‑1 antitrypsin deficiency, as a single 60‑mg dose kept patients above healthy levels of a protective lung protein for up to 12 months and sharply cut a harmful mutant protein; drug was well tolerated.
• CCCC announced that the first patient has been dosed with cemsidomide, an oral IKZF1/3 degrader, in a Phase 1b trial evaluating cemsidomide and dexamethasone in combination with elranatamab, an FDA-approved B-cell maturation antigen CD3 targeted bispecific antibody,
• CORT shares active after the FDA approves relacorilant with nab-paclitaxel for Platinum-resistant epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer.
• MAZE said its experimental drug MZE829 reduced protein in urine in a mid‑stage study as the drug targets APOL1‑mediated kidney disease. The study showed an average 35.6% drop in urine protein after 12 weeks; about half of patients saw drops of over 30%, co says.
• MDT cut its profit forecast for Fy26 last night, citing a one-time charge of about $157M tied to payments related to a research collaboration and the U.S. initial public offering of its Diabetes unit; now expects 2026 adj EPS to be between $5.50 and $5.54, compared with $5.62 to $5.66 forecast previously (est. $5.63)
• SRPT said an early-to-mid stage studies of two experimental drugs for rare muscle diseases showed high levels of the treatment reaching muscle tissue with no serious safety issues; says the treatments reduced harmful proteins or genetic material linked to the diseases after a single dose.
• TERN shares jumped after MRK confirmed a Financial Times report overnight that it would acquire the drug company for $53 per share in cash, as all-cash deal is valued at $6.7B as they seek to bolster its pipeline ahead of patent expiry for blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda.

• In Space stocks, shares of ASTS, SATS, and RKLB advanced as the Information reports that SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week. Advisers involved in the preparation expect the Elon Musk-led company could attempt to raise more than $75 billion in what would likely be one of the largest IPOs in history, according to the report. DPRO shares tumbled after results as Needham reiterated Buy noting while revenues came in modestly below Needham’s revenue expectations due to orders pushed out into 1H26, it views the quarter as a continued step in laying the groundwork for accelerated growth into 2026.
• Precious metal markets saw strength early as gold and silver look to break their recent downtrend the last 2 weeks, helping boost mining stocks early (AEM, AG, B, FSM, HL, NEM, PAAS held on to gains this afternoon).
• In Industrials: GNRC shares fell after announces the company to reorganize its Domestic and International segments into Residential and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) divisions, effective March 31.

• In Software: BRZE shares jumped following earnings results as delivered a strong Q4 with revenue up 28% Y/Y (+24% organic), beating consensus by 3%, the third consecutive quarter of organic revenue acceleration and FY27 revenue guidance $884-889M range (~20% Y/Y) came in well above consensus of $858M, with good margin guide.
• In Data Centers/HPC sector: CIFR signed a 15-year data center campus lease with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant. Under the terms of the agreement, Cipher will develop and deliver a new HPC data center at one of its existing sites.

• In Memory (MU, SNDK), shares weak after overnight from Google Research: “Introducing TurboQuant: Our new compression algorithm that reduces LLM key-value cache memory by at least 6x and delivers up to 8x speedup, all with zero accuracy loss, redefining Ai efficiency. Also, SK Hynix Inc. seeks to list its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). The memory supplier aims to make an offering in New York in the second half of the year, CEO Kwak Noh-Jung told shareholders during an annual general meeting Wednesday.
• AMD and INTC raised CPU prices again in March, taking 2026 increases to about 10%-15%, while lead times have gone from 1 to 2 weeks to as long as six months, a sign the CPU shortage is getting worse – Nikkei Asia reports.
• SNDK unit, SanDisk Technologies has entered into a private placement subscription agreement to make an equity investment in semiconductor firm Nanya Technology to purchase 139 mln Nanya shares for $1.0B, representing 3.9% stake as purchase price reflects a 15% discount to Nanya’s 30-day average trading price.
• DeepSeek posted job openings for specialists in agentic AI as it moves toward AI systems that can carry out tasks with minimal human oversight. Jobs on offer include: Agent Deep Learning Algorithm Researcher and Agent Infrastructure Engineer – Bloomberg.