Mid-Morning Look: April 30, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, April 30, 2026

U.S. stocks opened higher, boosted by better earnings results from some of the biggest tech companies in the world overnight (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL), and issued spending targets that was positive for the AI complex, along with better economic data as investors overlooked higher oil prices which hit 4-year highs on Wednesday. However, as markets opened, gains faded in some of the companies with AMZN, MSFT giving up gains and META extending losses. A weaker Chicago PMI manufacturing report also weighed on sentiment, while tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high. Big story overnight after earnings was that the biggest tech hyperscalers now plan to spend over $700B in 2026 on capex, primarily on AI data centers. GOOGL and META raised their full year guidance to $190B and $145B, while MSFT gave its first estimate at $190B and AMZN stands at $200B. The rise in capex a lift for semis, memory, optical, data centers, infrastructure, nuclear, utilities, power etc. in AI complex. The Dow is holding onto big gains thanks to strength in a few components (like CAT), while the S&P 500 is flat and the Nasdaq giving up some gains after a big run. Early on nine of the eleven S&P sectors are higher with tech being the biggest drag and industrials and utilities up over 2%.

Oil prices reverse an earlier spike Thursday which took them to a wartime high, with Brent now falling back to $114 from $119. Axios reported yesterday, Trump rejects Iran’s offer; blockade stays; naval blockade of Iran more effective than bombing; Trump would consider military action if Iran does not act; 3 Sources say US CENTCOM has prepared a short wave of strikes on Iran; Trump says oil storage facilities and pipelines in Iran are nearing explosion. Gold prices rebound off 1 month lows, rising over 1.5% but on track for second straight monthly decline amid a rise in yields/oil/dollar.

Big moves in the currency markets as the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, falling from 2026 peak of 160.39 yesterday as intervention worries bite. The Dollar/yen continued its drop by more than 2.7% drop to lows of 155.59 before paring losses, set for largest one-day drop since early 2023. The move came after aggressive “final warning comments  by Japan officials as Finance Minister Katayama said that that timing was near “to take bold action on FX” and Japan’s FX diplomat Mimura doubled down by saying that the authorities are “getting closer to taking decisive action” and telling investors that “this is my final warning.”

Other news items, the ECB leaves interest rate on deposit facility unchanged at 2.00%, benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 2.15% and marginal Lending facility unchanged at 2.40% (all as expected). The bank of England also maintained its interest rates steady. Of the 258 S&P 500 companies that reported thus far vs 287 LY, 86% beat vs 76% LY with the avg beat 22% vs 25% LY, avg miss -5% vs -16% LY and avg yr/yr earnings growth 27% vs 12% LY (per Reuters).

• March personal Income +0.6% (vs. consensus +0.3%) vs Feb unchanged and Personal Spending +0.9% (vs. consensus +0.9%) vs Feb +0.6%. March personal saving rate 3.6%. March real consumer spending +0.2% vs Feb +0.3%. March core PCE price index +0.3% (consensus +0.3%) vs Feb +0.4% (prev +0.4%) and March overall PCE price index +0.7% (consensus +0.7%) vs Feb +0.4% (prev +0.4%).
• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 189,000 from 215,000 last week, which was same as consensus; the 4-week moving average fell to 207,500 from 211,000 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.785M from 1.808M prior week and the Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• U.S. Q1 employment cost index +0.9% (consensus +0.8%) vs Q4 +0.7% (prev +0.7%); Q1 wages/salaries +0.8% vs Q4 +0.7% (prev +0.7%); Q1 benefit costs +1.2% vs Q4 +0.8% (prev +0.7%).

• In Insurance: AFL Q1 revs rose 27.9% y/y to $4.3B vs. est. $4.23B; Q1 EPS $1.75 misses $1.81 consensus driven by lower premium revenue in Corporate. Core operations show strength, anchored by a stronger than expected benefit ratio in the US; ALL EPS $10.65 vs. est. $7.29; Q1 revs $16.9B vs. est. $15B; Q1 Property-liability unit catastrophe losses shrank to $1.24B, compared with $2.2B a year earlier; Q1 net investment income jumped to $938M from $854M a year earlier, underpinned by strong gains in its market-driven investment portfolio.
• In Managed Care: it has been a good earnings season thus far for the sector with UNH, CNC big wins, HUM rebounding off mixed results and this morning CI better results as Q1 adj EPS $7.79 vs. est. $7.61; Q1 revs $68.52B vs. est. $66.37B; FY Cigna healthcare medical care ratio 83.7% to 84.7% vs estimate 84.06%; Q1 MCR 79.8% vs estimate 81.56%; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to at least $30.35 from at least $30.25.
• Papers & Packaging: SW shares fell early as core earnings (EBITDA) fell to $1.07B from $1.25B y/y and below its guidance to fall between $1.1 B-$1.2B (vs. st. $1.16B) saying adverse weather had resulted in a $65M hit to EBITDA in the first quarter when its margins were also weaker than a year ago; maintained FY core growth view. IP also disappoints as Q1 sales $5.97B missed the $6.01B estimate amid uneven demand for packaging materials and inflationary pressures and cut its annual profit forecast on higher interest rates and cost volatility.

• GKOS +14%; posted a strong Q1 print with revenues of $150.6M that finished above the Street’s $136.9M estimate, with every segment beating consensus estimates. iDose was especially strong with revenue of $54M handedly beating consensus estimates of $47M; raised guidance.
• GOOGL +5%; Q1 EPS $5.11 vs est $2.63 on revs $109.9B vs est $107.2B (cloud revs $20.03B, Ad revs $77.25B, services revs $89.64B, search & other revs $60.4B), EBIT mgn 36%; raises 2026 CAPEX guidance to $180B-$190B from prior $175B-$185B and says 2027 capex to significantly increase from 2026.
• HTZ +19%; shares jumped after its affiliated operating company, Oro Mobility, and UBER announced two strategic fleet partnerships. Through its partnerships with Uber, Oro will deliver scalable operational and maintenance services across both autonomous and driver-led operations in key U.S. markets.
• LLY +7%; as Q1 EPS $8.55 top consensus $6.67 on sales rising 56% y/y to $19.8B vs. est. $17.6B; raises FY revenue forecast to $82.0B-$85.0B, from prior forecast $80B-$83B amid strong demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro; Q1 Mounjaro rev $8.6B  rising 125% y/y and Q1 Zepbound revs $4.1B +80% Y/y.
• QCOM +11%; posted another disappointing Street-missing June-quarter guide, but shares rallied as the company focused disclosed leading hyperscaler custom silicon Engagement due to begin Shipping later this calendar year; second, whether the China Android memory-driven correction is finally reaching a trough.
• QURE +12%; said it plans to submit a marketing authorization application in the UK for its experimental gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington’s disease in Q3; adds meeting with the FDA still expected in Q2.
• RCL +6%; shares rallied early after Q1 EPS $3.60 topped estimates of $3.19, though did cut its annual profit forecast, signaling surging fuel costs linked to ongoing tensions in Middle East are weighing on margins and narrows FY26 net yields view to 2.3%-3.3% from 2.1%-4.1%.

• F -5%; Q1 adj EPS $0.66 vs. est. $0.19 and Q1 revs better at $43.3B vs. est. $38.8B; sees FY adj. Ebit $8.5B-$10.5B, above prior forecast $8B-$10B; says FY outlook assumes commodity headwinds of about $2B, up $1B from prior estimate. Ford shares fall after warning that an unexpected rise in commodity costs will weigh on earnings.
• IP -9%; disappoints as Q1 sales $5.97B missed the $6.01B estimate amid uneven demand for packaging materials and inflationary pressures and cut its annual profit forecast on higher interest rates and cost volatility.
• KLAC -6%; shares fell initially as results were ahead while its Jun-26Q outlook was broadly inline disappointing some investors, while management slightly raised 2026 WFE forecast and expects 2027 growth to accelerate based on improving visibility.
• META -9%; shares fell on capex guidance; reported Q1 EPS $10.44 tops consensus $6.82 and revs $56.31B vs. est. $55.56B; raises view to 2026 capital expenditures $125B-$145B above its prior view $115B-$135B; sees Q2 revenue $58B-$61B vs. consensus $59.57B; family daily active people 3.56 bln in March 2026, up 4% y/y.
• SW -6%; shares fell early as core earnings (EBITDA) fell to $1.07B from $1.25B y/y and below its guidance to fall between $1.1 B-$1.2B (vs. st. $1.16B) saying adverse weather had resulted in a $65M hit to EBITDA in the first quarter when its margins were also weaker than a year ago; maintained FY core growth view.
• TDOC -10%; in-line Q1 revenue and a modest 3.5% bottom-line beat though issued Q2 guidance that came in below consensus with Q2 BetterHelp adj. EBITDA margin guidance of (0.5%)-1.5%, which was below consensus of ~3.4%, but reiterated its FY26 BetterHelp margin guidance; narrowed 2026 revenue & adj. EBITDA guidance.