Mid-Morning Look: May 01, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 01, 2026

U.S. stocks are extending gains on the first day of the month, adding to incredible returns for US averages in April as earnings results and guidance continue to be the key driver for investors, overlooking rocket high oil prices and surging inflation readings the last few days, leading to lower chances of any interest rates cuts by the Fed (while keeping potential hikes as a possibility). The market stimulus coming from Hyperscalers by raising capex this week (AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT), keeping the Ai growth case strong (and related tech sub sectors). Overnight, Apple (AAPL) reported a big beat and strong revenue guidance that is lifting shares and helping broader market overall. Software (IGV) playing catchup in tech, led higher by good results overnight from TWLO, TEAM, FIVN as semis still (SOX +38% in April) the market leader. Industrials have been area of strength with CAT jumping 10% yesterday alone on results as investors look to power story among industrials (ETN, GNRC, etc.). Energy (XLE) remains the YTD S&P sector leader up 31% the first four months as oil prices remain around 4-year highs as the U.S/Iran war continues with no n-t resolution. Only Financials (XLF -4%) and Healthcare (XLV -5.5%) are down on the year in the S&P 500, with double digit gains for Tech, utilities, REITs, Materials and Industrials.

Inflation concerns (that’s markets are overlooking right now) include higher energy prices as @chaliebilello noted on X, “Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.39 per gallon, their highest level since July 2022. The 47% spike over the last 9 weeks ($2.98/gallon to $4.39/gallon) is the biggest we’ve seen in the past 30 years.” Also today, the price paid component of the ISM Manufacturing report came in at 84.6, the highest since April 2022, which comes a day after the March year-over year PCE price index +3.5% (consensus +3.5%) vs Feb +2.8% (prev +2.8%); core +3.2% (consensus +3.2%) vs Feb +3.0% (prev +3.0%).

Market optimism this morning after Apple (AAPL) results helped boost shares and tech space along with news Iran sent a new proposal for talks with the US via mediator Pakistan, state media said, without disclosing details. The two sides have held only one round of negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire after nearly 40 days of war starting February 28. Talks stalled as the US imposed a naval blockade and Iran restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also consulted regional counterparts on initiatives to end the conflict. Oil prices fell 2% on the report.

Meanwhile April was an incredible month of returns for US markets. the S&P 500 gained 10.42%, the Nasdaq climbed 15.29% (helped by a 38% spike in the semi SOX index), and the Dow climbed 7.14%. Dow industrials record biggest monthly% gain since November 2024, the S&P 500 registers biggest monthly% gain since November 2020 and Nasdaq records biggest monthly% gain since April 2020. The Russell 2000 climbed more than 12%, also its best month since November 2020. The Technology Select Sector (XLK) gained 20%, its best month since October 2002.

• Insurance: RYAN downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo given weaker organic growth that is expected to persist in the near term, with high-single digit organic for the year (4-6% range) and 0% in Q2 as well as margin compression; WTW was upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital following the -12% move on April 29 on a challenging quarter that it doesn’t see as indicative of a trend. On its call, management pointed to seeing a recovery in April, as well as several other factors that suggest a bounce back. AIG Q1 adjusted EPS $2.11, tops consensus $1.88; Q1 net premiums written rose 24% y/y to $5.6B; Q1 adj after-tax income per share up 80% y/y driven by higher underwriting income.
• Software movers: nice bounce for the sector (IGV) after TEAM share rise on results as raised annual revenue growth forecast to about 24% from prior expectations of 22% and reports Q3 revenue of $1.79B topping consensus of $1.69B and Jefferies noted Cloud/total rev +29/32% beat bogeys at 26/28% and RPO grew 37% and 34% OPM is a record high; TWLO reported strong Q1 results with top and bottom-line beat, with key growth metric, gross profit Dollar growth accelerating to +16% Y/y from 10% in Q425, and was well above Street at +10.3% and revenue grew 20% Y/Y (16% organic) to $1.41B, the fastest reported and organic growth in more than three years. FIVN reported 9% rev growth and a modest beat that was greater than past 2 qtrs./sub rev growth up to 13% and Ai revs accelerated to 68% Y/Y with solid ARR. EBIDTA margins expanded 560 bps Y/Y to 24.4%.

• AXTI +11%; after smaller Q1 loss and beat on revs $26.9M vs. est. $26.2M saying strong demand for indium phosphide substrates is driving capacity expansion and highlights ongoing capacity planning discussions with customers and supply chain partners.
• ESPR +57%; to be taken private by investment firm Archimed for up to $1.1 billion as ESPR shareholders will receive $3.16 in cash for each share, representing a premium of about 58% to co’s last close.
• FIVN +19%; reported 9% rev growth and a modest beat that was greater than past 2 qtrs./sub rev growth up to 13% and Ai revs accelerated to 68% Y/Y with solid ARR. EBIDTA margins expanded 560 bps Y/Y to 24.4%.
• PSKY +6%; was upgraded at Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley in assumption of coverage with $14 tgt saying pessimism presents an opportunity as the Warner deal is transformative and AI can turbocharge legacy assets, as sees a clear synergy and de-levering path.
• RDDT +11%; as reported Q1 revenue/EBITDA 9%/19% ahead of consensus and advertising revenue +74% Y/y, holding a similar 2yr stack (+181% 2yr. Y/y) vs Q4:25 (+180%); Q1 US DAU +1M q/q & Q2 revs guided 2% ahead; Q1 revenue of $663M grew 69% Y/y, which exceeded bogey estimates of 64% Y/y.
• RIOT +9%; shares rose after results as Q1 revenue rose to $167.2M vs. est. $131M and reported first quarter of data center revenue at $33.2M.
• TEAM +19%; after raised annual revenue growth forecast to about 24% from prior expectations of 22% and reports Q3 revenue of $1.79B topping consensus of $1.69B.
• TWLO +20%; reported strong Q1 results with top and bottom-line beat, with key growth metric, gross profit Dollar growth accelerating to +16% Y/y from 10% in Q4 and was well above Street at +10.3% and revenue grew 20% Y/Y (16% organic) to $1.41B, the fastest reported and organic growth in more than three years.
• VEEV +10%; will replace CTRA in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, May 7. S&P 500 constituent DVN is acquiring Coterra Energy in a deal expected to close soon, pending final conditions.

• RBLX -15%; shares tumbled as bookings were down 22.8% in Q1 and guided to decline a further ~8.7% in Q2; slashes FY26 bookings view to $7.33B-$7.6B from prior view of $8.28B-$8.55B; now sees a sequential decline in daily active users (DAU) in Q2 after Q1 DAUs stood at 132M, up 35% from a year ago
• RIVN -5%; reported EPS of $(0.33) vs. est. loss (-$0.60); Q1 revs $1.38B vs. est.$1.37B driven by continued strength in Software & Services, while Consolidated gross profit remained positive at $119M. 2026 delivery guidance (62k–67k) and CAPEX guidance ($1.95–$2.05B) were reaffirmed, with adj. EBITDA guidance unchanged
• SMMT -28%; after the co noted the PFS interim analysis for the squamous cohort of HARMONi-3 occurred, and the trial is continuing as previously planned to final PFS analysis (expected in 2H’26); shares fall as likely implies the trial did not hit stat-sig at this first interim and SMMT may not meet with FDA to accelerate timelines.
• TREE -17%; after earnings miss as Q1 EPS $1.22 vs. est. $1.47; Q1 revs rose 37% y/y to $327.3M vs. est. $321.7M; raised its ’26E EBITDA by 1% to $152–162M on strong Insurance results, while assuming near-term softness in Consumer/Home from geopolitical pressure on gas prices and rates