Market Review: June 18, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, June 18, 2026

What a difference a day makes yet again! After closing at the lows on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq falling over 1% and bonds tumbling/yields soaring after the Fed meeting commentary, stocks soared today, erasing all of those losses and finishing the abbreviated trading week on a strong note. The FOMC meeting had a “hawkish” tilt to future interest rate direction as the median FOMC interest rate forecast for 2026 was upwardly revised to 3.75% (from 3.375%), driven by 9 out of 18 members projecting further tightening ahead. Yet futures soared overnight, with investors buying the dip and extended gains after President Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed the memo outlining their countries’ peace agreement, a move previously expected for Friday. The deal went into effect on Thursday, potentially speeding up the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. The news pushed oil prices lower and boosted sentiment heading into the three day holiday weekend, choosing not to focus on the Fed news yesterday indicating a rate hike was a real possibility this year.  The dollar hit a one year high, yields pulled back a bit from prior day spike and metals tumbled across the board. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.4%.

Heavily weighted Technology (XLK) and Semiconductors (SOX) remain market leaders for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and again so today. The broader Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index (SOX) climbs as much as 6.5% above 14,350 to a fresh record high, with new records for INTC, and big advances for AMD, MRVL, ARM, standout memory names MU, SNDK, WDC again leading and equipment stocks AMAT, KLAC, ASML, LRCX and others all at or near record highs for this group. The SOX index is up about 12% this month and about 100% on the year. The XLK jumped 3% today, while flat on the month, but +33% YTD.

Weekly sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -2.8% vs -17.3% last week. Bulls rise to 36.6% from 30.4%, Neutrals rise to 24.1% from 22%, Bears rise to 39.4% from 47.7%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index jumped to 92.83 from 79.27 last week (a reversal after two weeks of sharp declines), still down from the 98.39 level on 5-27, which was the highest since the 100.7 on 12-17-25 – the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 is the 52 week hi – 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4).

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% in June, saying it was premature to raise rates given the unclear strength of increased inflation pressures. The Central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll, after external member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill in calling for a quarter-point rate rise. Also today, the Swiss National Bank left its Benchmark interest rate unchanged, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs from the Iran war.

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 226,000 from 230,000 and in-line with consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 223,250 from 219,250 prior week (previous 219,000); continued claims climbed to 1.810M from 1.786M prior and above consensus 1.795M.

• Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran on Wednesday, ahead of the previous schedule of Friday. The 14-point framework calls for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries around a fifth of the world’s daily oil traffic — after Washington lifts its blockade on Iran’s ports and sanctions on Iran’s oil sales.
• Lower oil prices did not help precious metals prices however, as August gold declined -$135.50, or -3.09%, to settle at $4,245.90 an ounce and July Silver fell -$4.45, or -6.29%, at $66.32 an ounce as metals traders focused more on higher rate fears after the FOMC.  

• The US dollar has jumped the last few days and moreso the last 24 hours after the FOMC rate news, as the buck surged late day up 0.58% at 161.58 as the yen sinks to lowest levels vs. greenback since July 2024. The move comes despite a Bank of Japan rate hike early this week to the highest in over 30 years at 1%, in line with expectations, accelerating policy normalization started in 2024. This was the BOJ’s first hike since December, when it raised rates to its current level of 0.75%.

• Specialty retail: gun maker SWBI shares surged on better earnings results as Q4 sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M on higher margins of 29.8% vs. 28.8% y/y saying new products were 37.5% of revs, w/sales growth driven by handgun shipments, accounted for more than 80% of total units shipped
• Travel & Leisure: a good week of returns for airlines (AAL, DAL, ALK, UAL) and cruise lines (CCL, VIK, RCL, NCLH), helped by the sharp pullback in oil prices as the US/Iran sign MOU on deal with details slowly emerging the last few days.
• Auto related sector: WPRT shares jumped after announces that Cespira, its Joint venture with Volvo Group, and Volvo Group have signed a development agreement to finalize the integration and commercialization of Cespira’s HPDI™ fuel system technology to enable Volvo Group’s 13-litre Engine to run on hydrogen

• In Solar: ENPH was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays and raise tgt to $51 from $30 citing the company’s emerging solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade, while Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term; saw strength in other solar related plays like SHLS, RUN, SEDG as well.
• In Nuclear/Utility: In power stocks (CEG, NRG, TLN), shares surged after key US regulator FERC signaled Thursday it would fast-track how data centers can secure connections to electric grids as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates. Under proposed orders that are expected to be approved, grids would have to demonstrate that they are working to speed connections if data centers bring their own power or curtail demand during times of high stress. They’ll also need to ensure data centers bear a larger share of the costs associated with upgrading the transmission system.
• Also saw shares of small modular names SMR, OKLO, NNE also rising in reaction. Nuclear reactor developer FISN priced its 2.5M share IPO at the low-end of the latest marketed range of $16-$18, raising $40M, and well below the originally planned price range of $24-$26.

• Financial Services: FDS was downgraded to Sell at Redburn saying despite a sharp derating, the firm continues to see risks to the downside, with terminals accounting for c51% of revenue and a further c25% linked to aggregated, nonproprietary data. Redburn upgraded VRSK to Hold from Sell saying Verisk has continued to derate sharply, reaching its historic lows prior to the disposals of Verisk Financial and Wood Mackenzie and says Ai disruption is reflected in the valuation. INTU was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel as expects management to lower its near/medium growth targets for both TurboTax and GBS with Q4 results/Sept analyst day as the company.
• In Banks: JEF was downgraded to Hold from Buy at UBS saying with shares up +19% M/M and +50% Q/Q (vs peers +2% / +11%) UBS believes a 13x blended 27E P/E valuation appropriately reflects elevated advisory and ECM expectations. Separately, Large U.S. banks on Thursday will formally pitch the central bank on tweaks to a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at reducing the funds they must set aside to absorb potential losses, as the central bank enters the last leg of a marathon overhaul of U.S. capital rules.
• Crypto sector: just can’t maintain a bounce, as Bitcoin prices fell over 2%, paring gains for the week down around $62,400 this afternoon and dragging names like MSTR down near 52-week lows; COIN, IBIT, also notable weakness.
• In Insurance: ALL announces that May estimated catastrophe losses of $289M or $228M after-tax and announces April and May total catastrophe losses of $1.16B or $915M after-tax

• BIIB agreed to acquire private biotechnology company RayThera for up to $1B as the transaction will include an upfront payment to RayThera shareholders, along with additional payments tied to clinical and regulatory milestones. RayThera’s portfolio includes several anti-inflammatory drug candidates, with its lead program expected to enter Phase 1 clinical trials in early third quarter.
• PFE said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.

• In Defense/Drones: ONDS agreed to acquire Cyberhawk in a transaction valued at approximately $125M, with about 95% of the purchase price funded in cash. Cyberhawk expects more than $45M in revenue for FY2027, generates approximately 95% recurring revenue, and has a $95M backlog. Defense contractors LMT, GD, NOC, RTX declined on day/week after President Trump signed an interim deal to end their nearly four-month-long war.
• Transports: Freight Waves noted on X, "Weekly U.S. Rail traffic data just dropped, and it’s confirming significant strength in the industrial segment of the economy. Total traffic is up an amazing 7.2%, with carloads rising 3.2% year-to-date, despite declines in coal and flat forest products. This is a critical indicator of future Freight demand, including trucking, as manufacturers ramp up production." – shares of rails include UNP, CSX, NSC, CNI, CP.

• In Materials: in lithium sector, ALB was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup with $225 tgt saying recent share price weakness is due to continued pullback in spot prices since mid-May, which should be largely transitory given robust Battery production and resilient NEV Battery demand. They are skeptical that the lithium market will flip to a meaningful glut.

• INTC shares jumped after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that AAPL had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S." Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, the WSJ reported in May.
• MRVL tgt raised to $385 from $260 at Keybanc and maintain Overweight after recently hosted management meetings saying they left incrementally more constructive around the DC networking oppy, particularly around Scale Up SU; ($30B TAM by ’30), where silicon Photonics and the acquisition of Celestial Ai will help MRVL differentiate.
• MU price tgt raised to $1,500 at Stifel as the firm is increasing its estimates significantly above consensus ahead of earnings next week, to reflect another big, upward shift in Ai-driven demand; it now models a ~2x better DRAM Asp/Gb (ex-HBM) than implied by MU’s initial outlook.
• Bloomberg reported this morning that AMZN is exploring selling its custom AI chips for deployment in third-party data centers, marking a broader push to expand beyond internal cloud use and compete more directly with NVDA.
• Sk Hynix said it has shipped samples ‌of its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to major customers. The next-generation 12-layer HBM4E ⁠chip reaches speeds of up to 16 gigabits per second per pin and offers over ‌20% better power efficiency than previous models, the company said
• TSEM, in partnership with MRVL, has shipped over five million coherent photonic integrated circuits to Marvell global customers, delivering advanced, high-performance photonics solutions to address the growing bandwidth and efficiency demands of AI-driven data center interconnect (DCI) networks.
• Semi equipment: the sector continues to see new all-time highs for likes of AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ONTO, MKSI and others in recent days/weeks. B Riley said today they sees a multi-year Memory Cycle beginning, with AMAT Systems demand tracking above its modeled ICHR levels, and believe revenue could rise over 2x, to ~$1.8B+ in CY28E from $0.850B in CY24. GM expansion looks increasingly structural. Near-term catalysts are MU’s 6/24 print, Samsung’s early-July preliminary Q226, and late-July Sk Hynix/Samsung updates.

• IT Services & Consulting: ACN shares tumbled after posting mixed Q3 results revised its growth expectations lower; Q3 EPS of $3.80 topped the $3.71 estimate but revs of $18.7B just missed ests $18.8B while tweaked its fiscal-year outlook lower for the 2^nd time this year, to 3%-4% revenue growth in local currency, down from March’s forecast of 4%-6%; the co did raise the low end of its year EPS Outlook to $13.78 from $13.65. Recall Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares this past Monday noting that massive investments in AI were draining resources away from information technology services (shares of CTSH, IBM, INFY, WIT fell in sympathy).
• In Media: RUM shares jumped after the video-sharing platform said it would change its name and tweak its business structure as part of an Ai pivot; says its new name will be RUM Group, effective June 18, after closing its acquisition of German Ai Cloud company Northern Data. RUM Group will oversee two business units: Rumble and Quake Ai
• Software sector: in Cybersecurity, ACN said it will buy a majority stake in Dragos and fully acquire cybersecurity firms runZero and NetRise in a combined deal valued at $4.18B as strengthens industrial OT security and attack surface tools. In gaming software, TTWO shares jumped after Rockstar Games noted on X, "Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.”
• Quantum sector: QBTS is unveiling what it says could be the first error-aware gate-model quantum computing simulator.