Market Review: April 17, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, April 17, 2026

US equity futures gained modestly overnight following headlines Trump may be a bit more flexible in Iran negotiations. Later indications that the Strait of Hormuz had been opened to commercial shipping pushed futures higher and prompted traders to once again price in a chance of a 2026 Fed rate cut. The Iran situation is not totally settled, but traders are growing more confident in ongoing ceasefire and resolution. Sentiment has turned more bullish with yesterday’s AAII weekly survey at -17.7% versus -21.6% the week prior and bulls rising to 18.1% from 17.6% while bears slipped to 49.8% from 52%. Meanwhile, today’s Fear & Greed Index hit 69/100 (Greed), up from 36 (Fear) last week and 20 (Extreme Fear) last month. Early breadth favored advancers by almost 5:1 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+2.33%) versus SPY (+1.19%) and QQQ (+1.12%) in a broad rally. On the sector side, Consumer Discretionary (+3.43%), Industrials (+2.77%) and Technology (+1.74%) were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Communications (+0.35%), Utilities (-1.23%) and Energy (-5.52%) paced the underperformers with 9 sectors gaining versus only 2 declining.

In data of note today, @RyanDetrick gave bulls more ammunition, noting the S&P 500 has a shot at closing up 3% for three consecutive weeks and that has only happened twice in history. At the ’82 lows and after COVID. A year later, stocks were up 33.9% and 32.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, @bespokeinvest noted the Technology sector has gained over 20% in the past 13 trading days. The last two times it was up more were coming out of the Financial Crisis in 2009 and coming out of Covid. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its best April in 40 years after 12 consecutive up days (only enjoyed this long a streak seven other times since 1985 and, another one for the bulls here, was up a year later every time).

Stocks extended gains into the early afternoon following Trump comments that a deal to end the war is mostly complete and Iran had agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and will not receive any frozen funds from the US. Comments out of Iran threatening to reciprocate if the blockade continues were met with a small retreat in stocks but the tenor of the day remained very positive. Of course, nothing’s done until it is and later headlines were decidedly more mixed. In the end, the Nasdaq posted its 13^th consecutive day in positive territory; @Bluekurtic noted on X, “This is only the 5th time $NDX has had a 13 day positive streak. When the Nasdaq 100 is up for 13 straight days, it has been positive 100% of the time since the index was formed.” Overall, for the week, the S&P 500 gained 4.53%, the Nasdaq climbed 6.84%, and the Dow climbed 3.2%.

• As has been the case most days recently, WTI crude futures moved on Iran headlines. This time, news of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz sent futures lower overnight and into the regular session. Even Trump comments later on the US Naval blockade remaining in force for Iran until the negotiations are 100% complete were not enough to stop the early selling pressure as optimism for a final deal took control. Later headlines were mixed and futures finished off the lows with June WTI crude settling -$8.58/bbl, or -9.41%, at $82.59.
• The 10-year yield fell 6.5 bps to 4.244%, down just a little over 7 bps for the week and down 19.5bps the last three weeks off the March 27^th, 2026, high of 4.439%. The 2-year yield  fell 7.8bps today and down around 10bps for the week to 3.699%; down 21.6bps the last 3-weeks.

• In Auto Suppliers: ALV shares jumped as reported a stronger-than-expected Q1 as adj EBIT of $245M topped the $209M consensus on better revs and said it now expects about 3% positive FX impact on its net sales in 2026 compared to the earlier view of around 1% positive; Autoliv had warned in January that it expected its Q1 adj operating margin to be considerably weaker y/y, but said today operational performance exceeded its forecast (the guidance boosted others in the group LEA, BWA, VC, ADBT, MGA).
• In Auto/Services: UBER is raising its holding in Delivery Hero, buying a stake from its European rival’s biggest shareholder for €270 million ($318M). Ford (F) said they were recalling about 1.4 million F-150 pickup trucks in the U.S. following a U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) investigation into reports of unexpected downshifts.
• In The RV/towable sector, Bloomberg reported PATK is in talks to combine with rival recreational-vehicle supplier LCII and the companies are negotiating a potential all-stock transaction. A deal could be announced in the coming weeks, though no final decision has been made and the talks could still fall apart

• Building Aggregates: UBS previewed MLM and VMC saying the biggest risks we see with aggregates companies in the near term are the expectations for residential construction in 2H26 and cost pressures due to higher oil prices. We don’t expect guidance reductions per se, but we expect some more cautious commentary on housing markets and some possible timing impacts on margins.
• Home improvement retailers HD, LOW, JHX, RH, rising on lower rate expectations giving easing inflation concerns after energy prices tumbled today. Also, a report showed more than two in five (43%) Americans renovated their home in the last year, and another 33% plan to renovate in the next year, according to a recent survey commissioned by Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.

• In Trucking/Transports: The Dow Jones transport Average is coming off all-time highs on Thursday and now making new highs, helped greatly by a surge in airlines AAL, ALK, DAL, UAL, JBLU amid a plunge in oil prices; in trucking, KNX lowered Q1 EPS outlook to $0.08-$0.10, down from prior view of $0.28-$0.32 citing negative impact from claims development in LT segment, an adverse decision on VAT reimbursement in Mexico, negative impact due to severe winter weather disruptions and other items.
• In Utilities: NI shares rose after announces strategic energy infrastructure agreements to enhance customer value and economic growth in Indiana; signed a long-term energy supply deal with a GOOGL unit and expanded its agreement with AMZN; says new cost savings expand to approximately $1.25B for existing customers; residential customers expected to save $90-$115 annually. EXC was downgrade to Equal Weight at Barclays and to market perform at BMO Capital noting Maryland and Pennsylvania are becoming less constructive jurisdictions, which now argues for a wider discount on EXC’s distribution portfolio on most comparatives. Yesterday, PECO filed to withdraw its Electric and gas rate cases.

• Trust Banks: STT shares rallied behind better quarterly results
• In Crypto: Bitcoin prices hit 10-week highs above $77K after having closed and held above its 100 day moving average of $74,800 for 3 days now.
• In FinTech: AFRM named as Top Pick at Morgan Stanley citing upward estimate revision potential, overdone private credit fears, and a strong catalyst path saying the company’s upcoming investor forum in May could be a major catalyst, with the company likely to raise GMV, margin and EPS targets.

• KLRA Kailera Therapeutics opens at $26, after 39.06M share IPO priced at $16 per share
• In Life Sciences (TMO, DHR, A, ILMN, BIO, QGEN, RVTY, TXG, AVTR): OpenAI announced Thursday GPT-Rosalind, a life sciences research model to support research across biology, drug discovery, and translational medicine. This news weighed on the tech-enabled sector. Keybanc said they believe this is a buying opportunity for many in this sector given most are leveraging proprietary and complex datasets to develop their own pipelines (many with clinical readouts coming over the next 12 months).

• In Metals & Mining: precious metals got an early boost, with GOLD, NEM, HL, WPM and others moving higher with gold and silver benefitting from lower oil and weaker dollar after Iran headlines; aluminum producer AA reported a miss on the top and bottom line as Q1 adj EPS $1.40 vs est $1.49 on revs $3.193B vs est $3.297B; expects FY total alumina and Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged.
• In Chemicals: fertilizer and nitrogen producers (CF, IPI, MOS, NTR) pulled back after Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes it can begin to free up the supply chain and bring down fertilizer prices which have spiked in recent weeks.

• In Telco Equipment: ERIC posted worse-than-expected Q1 earnings; said increasing chip costs caused by artificial intelligence demand and a sales slowdown in North America weigh on results; Q1 adjusted operating profit of SEK 5.2B ($565.8M) falls short of the SEK 5.4B seen in the company-provided consensus.
• In Internet: META plans to begin companywide LAYOFFS on May 20, with the first round expected to affect about 10% of its workforce, or roughly 8,000 employees, sources say per Reuters which also said more firmwide cuts are planned later in 2026.

• In Auto Semis: Mizuho upgraded STM to Outperform and new $48 PT, TXN upgraded to Neutral and raised $215 PT on Ai/DC Industrial Recovery and NXPI was downgraded to Underperform and cut PT to $188 in semis saying ahead of earnings, assesses three key analog industry drivers: 1) Ai DC is a key 2026-27E growth vector with 800V NVDA Ai racks benefiting power semis, with SiPho starting to ramp (positive for STM, Ex-3), 2) Industrial recovery broadening – green shoots in A&D, Robotics, Medical and energy, with broad China price hikes, up >10% Y/y in April (positive for TXN), and 3) Autos soft in 2026E – global LVP down ~2% Y/y (negative for NXPI) with geopolitical, macro demand headwinds, and elevated inventory potentially signaling more downside to LVP.
• In Semi Equipment Sector: ONTO was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel citing the semiconductor manufacturing company’s solid preliminary revenue. The firm said they were surprised by the muted reaction to their 1H +pre-announcement and even moreso the qualification of its new Gen5 Dragonfly system for 2.5D advanced packaging.