Market Review: April 30, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, April 30, 2026

US equity futures gained slightly overnight as no new Iran news was evident to generate a sizeable swing and earnings from biggies like AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, CAT and LLY were strong enough early to offset an overnight drop in META post-EPS. The morning array of economic reports also was sufficiently in-line to allow the market to open in the green. But it didn’t last long as investors sold into strength and pushed the market into down territory. Consistent with the early dip, today’s bull-bear spread shifted to -1.6% from +11.6% last week. Bulls slipped from 46% to 38.1% while bears rose from 34.4% to 39.7%. That said, the Fear & Greed Index remained in Greed territory at 64/100, just slightly off last week’s 66 (Greed) and still way ahead of last month’s 13 (Extreme Fear).

By mid-morning, the S&P 500 was back to the upside and broad market breadth favored advancers by 5:2 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.89%) versus SPY (+0.05%) and QQQ (-0.39%). SPY breadth favored advancers by 3:1 and QQQ breadth favored advancers by 9:5 despite the index being lower on big-cap weakness in AMZN, MSFT, META and NVDA. Sector wise, Utilities (+2.31%), Industrials (+2.12%) and Health Care (+2.08%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Discretionary (+0.24%), Communications (-0.11%) and Technology (-1.05%) paced the underperformers with 9 sectors gaining versus 2 declining.

In data of note today, of 258 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far vs 287 LY (fiscal qtr ending Feb-Apr, per Reuters): 86% beat vs 76% LY with an average beat of 22% vs 25% LY, and average miss of -5% vs -16% LY and average yr/yr earnings growth of 27% vs 12% LY (median yr/yr earnings growth thus far is 14% vs 6% LY). Also in earnings, @bespokeinvest noted since yesterday’s close, 18 stocks have raised guidance (including 11 triple plays) versus just 3 that have lowered. Pivoting to the Fed and rates, @charliebilello noted the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) came in at 3.2% in March, the highest level since November 2023, marking the 61st consecutive reading above the Fed’s 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut in June, and one could make a strong case for a rate hike. Lastly, @RyanDetrick pointed out that April is up more than 9% and following the 10 other times it rose more than 5%, May was higher 9 times and both the May-Oct period and remainder of the year were up significantly better than average. Good news for data hounds.

Heading into the final hour of trading for the month, stocks roared ahead to new highs. Even weakness in NVDA, MSFT and META was not enough to hold the market down as all eleven S&P sectors closed higher with more than 2% gains for Industrials, Utilities and Healthcare and the S&P 500, and Nasdaq Comp both closed at record highs. We get another big round earnings tonight, including AAPL, so stay tuned. With April closing out today, massive gains for the month for major averages as the S&P 500 rose 10%, the Russell 2000 11% and the Nasdaq over 15%. In tech, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has surged 35% in April, marking its best one-month return since just before 2000.

• March personal Income +0.6% (vs. consensus +0.3%) vs Feb unchanged and Personal Spending +0.9% (vs. consensus +0.9%) vs Feb +0.6%. March personal saving rate 3.6%. March real consumer spending +0.2% vs Feb +0.3%. March core PCE price index +0.3% (consensus +0.3%) vs Feb +0.4% (prev +0.4%) and March overall PCE price index +0.7% (consensus +0.7%) vs Feb +0.4% (prev +0.4%).
• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 189,000 from 215,000 last week, which was same as consensus; the 4-week moving average fell to 207,500 from 211,000 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.785M from 1.808M prior week and the Insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• U.S. Q1 employment cost index +0.9% (consensus +0.8%) vs Q4 +0.7% (prev +0.7%); Q1 wages/salaries +0.8% vs Q4 +0.7% (prev +0.7%); Q1 benefit costs +1.2% vs Q4 +0.8% (prev +0.7%).
• Chicago PMI reported at a weaker 49.2 (contraction) vs. expected 54.9 and prior reading of 52.9; first contraction since Dec 2025.
• Leading Index Change MoM Actual -0.6% worse than the forecast -0.2% and prior -0.1%.

• June WTI crude futures slipped overnight after a strong move higher yesterday. While it is impossible to escape Iran headlines entirely, the lack of particularly aggressive headlines fueled the easing in oil, which continued intraday. Trump did indicate he plans to continue to blockade of Iranian ports and the Supreme Leader of Iran did say Iran plans to guard missile and nuclear technology like its borders but none of this represented an escalation so the market absorbed it and moved ahead. Futures settled -$1.81/bbl, or -1.69%, at $105.07.

• Treasury yields eased as oil prices pulled back from 4-year highs on Thursday as the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last down 4.9 basis points at 3.883%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 2.8 basis points to 4.388%.

• Alphabet (GOOGL) shares jumped as standout in Big 4 last night; raised dividend; Q1 EPS $5.11 vs est $2.63 on revs $109.9B vs est $107.2B (cloud revs $20.03B, Ad revs $77.25B, services revs $89.64B, search & other revs $60.4B), EBIT mgn 36%; raises 2026 CAPEX guidance to $180B-$190B from prior $175B-$185B and says 2027 capex to significantly increase from 2026.
• Meta Inc. (META) shares fell on capex guidance; reported Q1 EPS $10.44 tops consensus $6.82 and revs $56.31B vs. est. $55.56B; raises view to 2026 capital expenditures $125B-$145B above its prior view $115B-$135B; sees Q2 revenue $58B-$61B vs. consensus $59.57B; family daily active people 3.56 bln in March 2026, up 4% y/y. Shares were downgraded to neutral at JP Morgan saying while they are encouraged by Meta’s +33% Y/Y revenue growth which has been supported by Ai-driven Ad stack optimizations, accelerating impression growth, & Engagement gains, it believes full-stack Ai competition is intensifying and Meta has a more challenging path to returns on heavy Ai CAPEX beyond advertising. Most notably, Google and Amazon are seeing strong Cloud revenue acceleration W/Google Cloud backlog almost doubling Q/Q & AWS backlog increasing+50% Q/Q.
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Q3 EPS $4.27 tops consensus $4.07 on revs rose 21% y/y to $82.89B vs. est. $81.43B; Q3 Azure & other Cloud rev ex-fx +39%, vs. est. +38.2%; Q3 Cloud revenue $54.5B, up 29%, productivity and Business Processes was $35.0B and increased 17%, Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue increased 33%; reported +5M Q/Q Copilot M365 adds (better than expected), and modestly better profitability. Management guided Azure to accelerate in Q4 and indicated this should continue into 1HFY27. FY27 guidance commentary that included CY26 CAPEX ($190B), sustained double-digit rev and operating-income growth on mid-to-high-single-digit OPEX growth
• Impact for AI/infrastructure/opticals/semis: Among CAPEX figures given last night from the 4 hyperscalers: AMZN, which said in January that it expected its capital expenditures in 2026 to approach $200B, told investors on its earnings call that its plan remained “largely the same.” GOOGL raises 2026 CAPEX guidance to $180B-$190B from prior $175B-$185B and says 2027 CAPEX to significantly increase from 2026; META raises view to 2026 capital expenditures $125B-$145B above its prior view $115B-$135B; MSFT expects CAPEX spending for calendar year 2026 to reach $190B, including $25B due to higher component pricing. Positive for the Semis ecosystem from capex include CLS, LITE, ALAB, SNDK, MRVL, CRDO, AMD, AVGO, NVDA, MU, others.

• In Food & Beverage: HSY Q1 sales rose 10.6% to $3.1B, and adjusted EPS for Q1 pf $2.35 increased 12.4%, with beating analyst expectations as the company reaffirmed its 2026 full-year sales and earnings outlook; Higher commodity and tariff-related costs weighed on adj gross margin and segment profits. TAP Q1 revs rose 2% to $2.35B vs. est. $2.3B and reaffirmed its full year outlook though said for Q2, expects financial volumes in the U.S. to be 6% to 9% lower than the year before, trailing anticipated brand volume trends. SFM shares surged for one of best days on record after earnings results last night lifted shares.
• In Home Furnishings: Wayfair (W) shares fell as Q1 EPS and revs in-line with estimates ($0.26/$2.9B) on higher customer order value and more active customers +1.4% y/y but did not provide guidance; ETD reported flat retail written orders during F3Q (ended Mar.) amid ongoing industry headwinds, severe weather, and geopolitical uncertainty and said monthly trends softened as the quarter progressed, though April trends have recovered.
• Toy Retailers: MAT Q1 revenues beat by 7% while EPS only beat by a penny ($(0.20) given gross margin headwinds from tariffs, currency, and general inflation, while says sales growth is expected to accelerate from the +1% constant currency growth in Q1 (guide was down low-single digits).

• In Auto dealers: CVNA Q1 EPS $1.69, tops consensus $1.56 on revs $6.43B vs. est. $6.09B as posted livered a record ~187k retail units, up 40% y/y and 3% ahead of the Street, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of ~40% growth and Retail GPU of $3,165 also beat consensus by ~2% and grew ~6% q/q
• Auto retailers: ORLY better results as Q1 EPS $0.72 vs. est. $0.69; Q1 revs $4.56B vs. est. $4.46B; reported an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales and a 16% increase in earnings; sees FY26 EPS $3.15-$3.25 vs. consensus $3.22, revs $18.7B-$19B, vs. est. $18.97B and sees FY26 comparable store sales 3%-5%. SAH mixed results on better EPS but sales came in short of consensus and raises dividend.
• Car Rental: HTZ shares jumped after its affiliated operating company, Oro Mobility, and UBER announced two strategic fleet partnerships. Through its partnerships with Uber, Oro will deliver scalable operational and maintenance services across both autonomous and driver-led operations in key U.S. markets.
• In Leisure Products/RVs: CWH posted a bottom-line beat on softer top line. CWH delivered adj. EBITDA +$12.2M vs. consensus on revenue -$57.0M vs. consensus, including Vehicles (-$60.3M), F&I (-$3.0M), PS&O (-$7.9M), and CS&P (-$1.4M).
• Cruise Lines: RCL shares rallied early after Q1 EPS $3.60 topped estimates of $3.19, though did cut its annual profit forecast, signaling surging fuel costs linked to ongoing tensions in Middle East are weighing on margins and narrows FY26 net yields view to 2.3%-3.3% from 2.1%-4.1%.

• In Insurance: AFL Q1 revs rose 27.9% y/y to $4.3B vs. est. $4.23B; Q1 EPS $1.75 misses $1.81 consensus driven by lower premium revenue in Corporate. Core operations show strength, anchored by a stronger than expected benefit ratio in the US; ALL EPS $10.65 vs. est. $7.29; Q1 revs $16.9B vs. est. $15B; Q1 Property-liability unit catastrophe losses shrank to $1.24B, compared with $2.2B a year earlier; Q1 net investment income jumped to $938M from $854M a year earlier, underpinned by strong gains in its market-driven investment portfolio.

• Apartment REITs: Keybanc noted 6 apartment REITs have reported Q126 results to date, The results include four NFFO beats (AVB, EQR, ESS, MAA) and two in line (IRT, UDR). NFFO and SS growth guidance for 2026 has been affirmed. Operating trends are tracking in line to slightly ahead of initial projections, with pricing power improving on new leases and historically low turnover supporting renewals

• LLY shares rise as Q1 EPS $8.55 top consensus $6.67 on sales rising 56% y/y to $19.8B vs. est. $17.6B; raises FY revenue forecast to $82.0B-$85.0B, from prior forecast $80B-$83B amid strong demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro; said  expects to earn $35.50-$37.00 EPS compared to its prior view of $33.50-$35; Q1 Mounjaro rev $8.6B  rising 125% y/y and Q1 Zepbound revs $4.1B +80% Y/y.
• BMY posted Q1 results largely as expected, focus on key 2026 Events: reported 1Q26 total revenue of $11.5B, compared with consensus $10.9B, and EPS of $1.58 vs. est. $1.41 as the top line beat was driven by legacy products Eliquis and Pomalyst, partially offset by oncology (Opdivo, Reblozyl, Opdualag).
• ABBV was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America after delivered modest Q1 beats and raised FY26 guidance driven by Skyrizi and Rinvoq/believes concerns around competitive erosion to key immunology (I&I) segment are overdone and forward indicators for Skyrizi remain strong.
• AXSM announces FDA approval of Auvelity® (dextromethorphan HBR and bupropion HCL) for the treatment of agitation Associated with dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease.
• QURE said it plans to submit a marketing authorization application in the UK for its experimental gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington’s disease in Q3; adds meeting with the FDA still expected in Q2.
• VKTX Q1 EPS loss (-$1.37), vs. consensus loss (-$0.91); Q1 cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at quarter end were $603M vs. $706M at previous quarter end; said continue to execute the Phase 3 clinical development program for our lead obesity program VK2735.

• In Managed Care: it has been a good earnings season thus far for the sector with UNH, CNC big wins, HUM rebounding off mixed results and this morning CI better results as Q1 adj EPS $7.79 vs. est. $7.61; Q1 revs $68.52B vs. est. $66.37B; FY Cigna healthcare medical care ratio 83.7% to 84.7% vs estimate 84.06%; Q1 MCR 79.8% vs estimate 81.56%; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to at least $30.35 from at least $30.25.
• Medical Equipment: GKOS posted a strong Q1 print with revenues of $150.6M that finished above the Street’s $136.9M estimate, with every segment beating consensus estimates. iDose was especially strong with revenue of $54M handedly beating consensus estimates of $47M and drove the Magnitude of the total company beat. Increased its FY26 revenue guidance to $620-635M (+22-25% Y/y) from $600-620M (+18-22% Y/y) previously.
• Healthcare technology; GEHC was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs and cut PT to $65 from $81 saying while the company’s underlying business has shown improvement, with organic revenue growth rising from ~1% in 2024 to ~3.5% in 2025, rising input costs, tariff uncertainty, and macro sensitivity have repeatedly disrupted the EPS outlook, deferring a meaningful earnings growth inflection.

• Papers & Packaging: SW shares fell early as core earnings (EBITDA) fell to $1.07B from $1.25B y/y and below its guidance to fall between $1.1 B-$1.2B (vs. st. $1.16B) saying adverse weather had resulted in a $65M hit to EBITDA in the first quarter when its margins were also weaker than a year ago; maintained FY core growth view. IP also disappoints as Q1 sales $5.97B missed the $6.01B estimate amid uneven demand for packaging materials and inflationary pressures and cut its annual profit forecast on higher interest rates and cost volatility.

• Towers & Telecom: in towers, SBAC Q1 results were slightly better than expected with -2% organic growth (+3.5% ex Sprint/DISH churn), and AFFO/share above consensus.

• Semi equipment: KLAC shares fell initially as results were ahead while its Jun-26Q outlook was broadly inline disappointing some investors, while management slightly raised 2026 WFE forecast and expects 2027 growth to accelerate based on improving visibility (limited upside to Q2/CY26 outlooks surprised given the WFE backdrop); TER was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan following the ~20% post-earnings pullback in the stock with the lumpiness in customer purchasing of test Equipment driving limited changes to the long-term drivers and secular catalysts, including the ramp in merchant GPU tests, VIP ASIC test market opportunities.