Market Review: June 16, 2026

Closing Recap

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

U.S. stocks finished mixed after massive gains on Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average added to record high gains, while the Russell 2000 pulled back off its record highs and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined late day to finish at the lows ahead of tomorrow’s first FOMC meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh where no rate changes are anticipated. Traders see the Fed holding rates through much of the year while seeing a roughly 42% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in December. Overnight, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, the highest since 1995 as policymakers highlighted upside inflation risks from higher oil prices, firm wage growth and rising inflation expectations but the yen was little changed. Oil prices a big story today, tumbling over 5% (more below), while the recent SpaceX (SPCX) IPO saw a third day of gains though slipped late day (also more below). The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded another all-time high topping 52,000, as financials (XLF), and industrials (XLI) paced gains while technology (XLK) fell the most behind a pullback in semis (SOX) off record highs.

This afternoon came reports that a US-Iran framework agreement includes plans for a $300 billion private investment fund to support Iran’s economy, a source told Reuters. The fund would launch only after a final deal is signed, with no government money involved. More than half of the capital has reportedly already been committed by companies across the US, Gulf, Asia, South America and Africa. Meanwhile oil prices tumbled following a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. would allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the memorandum of understanding. The signing of the interim peace deal between the US and Iran will take place on Friday near Lucerne in Switzerland, according to reports.

SpaceX (SPCX) surpassed both Amazon’s and Microsoft Corp. valuations (briefly) Tuesday, becoming the fourth biggest U.S. company by market capitalization as the stock surged again ahead of the open. Barron’s noted on fundamentals, Amazon posted revenue of $717B in 2025 to SpaceX’s $18.7B. The stock surged 20% Monday after Musk said the company could hit revenue of $1 trillion in a post on X over the weekend. The company also revealed it raised an extra $11 billion from its IPO after underwriters exercised an option to buy more shares. Shares hit intraday highs above $225 per share after pricing at $135 last Thursday but ended the day around $200 in a late day pullback.

• May import prices rose +1.9% above consensus +1.0% and vs April +2.0%; May export prices +1.3% (consensus +1.2%) vs April +3.5% (prev +3.3%). May non-petroleum import prices +0.8%, y/y +3.8%.

• August gold settles +$2.80/oz, or +0.06%, at $4,354.40 while July Silver settles -$0.17/oz, or -0.24%, at $70.01 an ounce, little changed after a big bounce Monday and ahead of the FOMC policy meeting today. Prices did not react favorably despite the sharp decline in oil prices. Cryptocurrency is paring yesterday’s gains, driven in part by cutting risk ahead of the first FOMC meeting led by new Fed chair Kevin Warsh as Bitcoin fell around 1% under $66,000.
• Treasury yields fall further as oil prices slip another 5% today on hopes of normalized traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of a Fed rate decision. Details of an announced U.S.-Iran deal remain unknown, but the prospect of a regular supply of crude eases inflation fears. A cautious market, however, still prices in a Fed hike sometime this year, following tomorrow’s expected hold. The Dollar Index (DXY) was little changed while the 10-year yield fell 4bps to 4.426%, the lowest in over a month

• In Autos/Ride Hailing: MBLY said it would launch its own robotaxi service in the U.S., putting the self-driving technology supplier in direct competition with some of its customers; the company is planning to prepare an initial fleet of about 100 vehicles targeted for deployment in a major metropolitan U.S. market beginning in 2027 (watch LYFT, UBER). BMWYY guided FY Automotive Ebit margin 1% to 3%, down from prior 4% to 6% (auto suppliers MGA, LEA active).
• In Retailers: shares of GIL came under pressure following news of a short call by Jehoshaphat Research noted on X. GIL later said in a release that it is aware of the published report and remained confident in its financial disclosures and governance practices while also backed its full-year guidance for FY26 and added that doesn’t intend to provide any further comment at this time.

• In Nuclear/power sector: OKLO and Standard Nuclear, a reactor-agnostic producer of TRISO nuclear fuel, have entered a memorandum of understanding to explore commercial collaboration on nuclear fuel recycling and advanced fuel manufacturing.
• Gas sector: shares of VG, LNG declines after Qatari authorities stated that they hope the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the resumption of liquefied Natural gas trade.

• In Mortgage sector: RKT downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG without a price target saying the rate environment has been more challenging in 2026 than initially expected. BETR was initiated at Buy and $36 tgt saying it is well positioned from a platform/ technology standpoint to grow its business from the recently added partnerships.
• In Lending: FNMA and FMCC were both downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG citing limited visibility into the timing of any release of the government sponsored entities from conservatorship. Key steps still need to be resolved, including the updated capital standards and resolution around the government’s senior preferred stake. LPRO said it would be acquired by ANV Group Holdings for $3.15 per share
• In REITs: Bank America downgraded SKT to Underperform from Neutral after having risen 15.1% over the past month and says it now sees more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in retail REITs; upgraded EXR to Neutral, more positive on operating trends for this peak leasing season; WPC upgraded to Neutral as believes warrants a higher multiple given its improved internal and external growth; HPP downgraded to Underperform citing valuation for the downgrade following the stock’s recent rally and KRC upgraded to Buy saying leasing momentum is improving across Kilroy’s markets, particularly in the San Francisco Bay area, with AI as the driving force.

• EWTX shares tumbled after announced top-line results from the 12-week Phase 2 Part D CIRRUS-HCM trial of EDG-7500 in obstructive (oHCM) and nonobstructive (nHCM) HCM.
• MRNA shares jumped after the FDA said data demonstrating an immune response to Moderna’s MRNA.O flu shot may support effectiveness in adults 65 years and older.

• In Aerospace & Defense: SPCX shares soar on day 3 after its IPO topping $225 per share and becoming the 4^th most valuable company in the world (passing MSFT, AMZN this morning) and seeing a sell off in other space names in rotation into SPCX with LUNR, PL, RDW, FLY, RKLB, ASTS among names falling. PLTR was upgraded to Peer Perform at Wolfe after resuming coverage as believes the company’s Artificial Intelligence Platform, ontology, and forward deployed engineers prove the company can turn AI interest into scaled enterprise adoption. PSN selected for the design oversight and construction oversight contracts on the estimated $1.1B-$1.4B design-build John A. Blatnik Bridge Project by the Minnesota and Wisconsin Departments of Transportation.

• Metals: in Steel sector (STLD, NUE, CLF): BMO Capital noted spot HRC prices have continued to rise over the past two weeks, maintaining an upward trend that began nine months ago and breaking from typical seasonal patterns. This increase has mainly been supported by limited spot availability (maintenance and lower competition from imports) and more recently by a modest increase in end market activity. Aluminium fell to its lowest in 2-1/2-months on easing concerns about Middle East supplies after the US/Iran announced a memorandum of understanding had been signed to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been released. Benchmark aluminium on LME hits lows of $3,334 earlier (lowest since March 27) before rebounding.

• Social media: META said its Threads app had reached 500 million monthly active users, nearly three years after the social network platform was launched as a competitor to Elon Musk’s X. The social media company also announced new customization and community features on the platform. SNAP launched its first augmented-reality glasses for consumers at a hefty price of $2,195, pitching the device as the future of how people interact with technology in the AI age.

• IT Services & Consulting: RXT and AMD sign definitive agreement for phased deployment of 30 MW of AMD AI Compute; to terminate about 15% of global workforce as estimates one-time expenses of $14M-$19M in 2026 for realignment; expects $75M-$85M in annualized run-rate savings upon full implementation.

• QCOM is in talks to acquire AI chip startup Tenstorrent for $8 billion to $10 billion, the Information reported on Monday, citing a person with direct knowledge of the deal. The talks are ongoing and the price could change, or the discussions could fall apart.
• STM announces a $1.5B dual-tranche offering of new convertible bonds and the early redemption of its 2027 convertible bonds.