Market Review: May 04, 2026

Closing Recap

Monday, May 04, 2026

U.S. stocks finished lower on Monday as a spike in oil prices amid increased hostilities in the Middle East made markets uneasy, especially after several indexes closed at new all-time highs last week, including the S&P 500, the S&P 600 (small caps), the Russell 2000 (small caps), and the Nasdaq Composite. Tensions ramped up in the Middle East, sending U.S. stocks off record highs and pushed energy prices higher once again after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said that Iran had launched a missile and drone attack against the country, putting at risk the already shaky ceasefire between the United States and Tehran. The reported attacks prompted the UAE to activate its missile alert system for the first since the U.S. and Iran began their temporary truce on April 8. Meanwhile, the U.S. military destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones fired by Tehran as the U.S. launches an operation to free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of Central Command said. Iranian revolutionary guards spokesperson noted earlier that vessels violating regulations announced by guards in strait of Hormuz “will be stopped by force.”

In stocks/sector news, the Dow Transports fell around -1,000 points or 4.75% amid freight/trucking weakness shares of UPS, FDX, GXO, ODFL, FWRD, JBHT and other freight, logistic names after reports that AMZN is opening up its global supply-chain network to all businesses. Now, the e-commerce giant’s new supply-chain offering aims to grow its share of the global market for third-party logistics services. Earnings calendar: Coming into the week, 316 or 63% of the firms in the S&P 500 index having reported, and strong as earnings are up 28% overall on revenue growth of 11%. Prior to the start of the quarter, bottom-up estimates from FactSet put analysts’ expected earnings growth at 12.6% from a year earlier. All eleven S&P sectors are seeing revenue gains, with six sectors seeing double-digit top-line growth. This week another 128 SPX companies are due to report; Just ten are slated for the week of May 11 as the season winds down. At this point, 81% of firms’ earnings growth has exceeded their analyst estimates.

• US Treasury notes to borrow $189B in Q2, sees end-June cash balance of $900B; US Treasury notes to borrow $671B in Q3, sees end-September cash balance of $950B; US Treasury notes borrowed $577B in Q1, with end-quarter cash balance of $893B.

• June Gold prices fell over 2%, down -$111.20 or 2.39% to settle at $4,533.30 an ounce, as increasing tensions between the U.S and Iran sent the dollar higher and reinforced inflation concerns that kept expectations of higher interest rates alive.
• Bitcoin prices hit highs of $80,584 overnight, its first move above $80K since January before pulling back under $79K, then again made a push above $80,000 after the market open before stalling yet again.

• Consumer Services: ADT shares fell as launch of secondary public offering of common stock and concurrent share repurchase; ADT announces proposed secondary offering of 102M shares held by Apollo affiliates and ADT said intends to repurchase up to 29.1M shares in secondary offering.

• Online Travel & Lodging: ABNB was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer with a $180 price target on the view that product initiatives around Hotels, RNPL, and AI search will generate durable revenue acceleration not fully reflected in Street estimates. The firm is incrementally more constructive on Hotels.
• In Casinos & Gaming: CHDN reported that all-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $487M, up 3% from the prior record set last year. Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program was $340M compared to last year’s record of $349M. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was $225M, compared to last year’s record of $234M. SRAD shares active after Director Walder Buys 66,000 Of Sportradar Group Ag on 4/30/26 @ $12.77 valued at $842,820 per filing
• In Autos: Ford (F) total U.S. vehicle sales down to 178,667 units in April of this year, compared to 208,675 units last year, a decline of 14.4%. Ford reports April U.S. total electrified vehicles sold of 19,413, down 31.1% y/y, and internal combustion vehicle sales of 159,254, down 11.8% y/y.
• In Chinese Autos: Monthly April EV delivery data released: LI said it delivered 34,085 vehicles in April 2026. As of April 30, 2026, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,669,442; NIO April total vehicle sales 29,356 units; up 22.8% on year; Jan-Apr total vehicle sales 112,821 units; up 71.0% on year; XPEV delivered a total of 31,011 vehicles, representing a 13% increase from the prior month. Furthermore, following the official rollout of VLA 2.0 in March, test-drive satisfaction rates at XPENG retail stores recorded a significant increase by the end of April.
• In RV/towable sector: LCII and PATK terminate discussions regarding potential merger of equals

• In Transports: UPS, FDX shares slide after AMZN said it was rolling out "Amazon ‌Supply Chain Services", opening up its ‌logistics network for other businesses to use. Businesses ​of all types and sizes can now move, store and deliver everything using ‌the full breadth ⁠of Amazon’s own supply-chain network. ULH shares drop after Q1 revenue declined y/y and posted a Q1 net loss, citing continued weakness in intermodal segment; said lower load volumes and reduced average revenue per load contributed to decreased trucking segment revenue and income. The news also sunk other freight and logistics names CHRW, ODFL, KBHT, GXO, FWRD, KNX, etc.
• In Shipping: DSX launches tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of GNK for $23.50 per share in cash; DSX says agreement with SBLK to sell 16 of Genco’s vessels for $470.5M in cash upon completion of deal; DSX obtained $1.433B in fully committed financing arranged by DNB Carnegie and Nordea.
• In Waste sector: CWST was upgraded to Overweight at Barclays with $102 tgt after a strong Q126 and clearer line of sight to synergy capture following Mid-Atlantic systems integration. While landfill pricing will remain debated, BARC sees cost-out and incremental M&A capacity supporting estimate upside.
• In Industrials: Electrical equipment maker HUBB entered into a definitive agreement to acquire NSI Industries, a portfolio company of Sentinel Capital Partners and a leading provider of electrical fittings, connectors, components and wire management products, for $3.0B in cash, subject to customary adjustments.
• Homebuilders were broadly lower, BZH, KBH, LEN, DHI, PHM tumbling as Treasury yields spiked, making mortgage rates higher.

• In Crypto: Bitcoin prices hit highs of $80,584 overnight, its first move above $80K since January before pulling back under $79K, then again made a push above $80,000 after the market open before stalling; CRCL shares among leaders in the sector after lawmakers over the weekend struck a compromise on the market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, preserving stablecoin reward programs under certain conditions.
• Financial Services: GBTG shares jumped as Long Lake agrees to acquire American Express Global Business Travel, the world’s largest corporate travel platform, for $6.3B as Amex GBT holders to receive $9.50 per share in cash.
• Private Capital: BX said investment vehicle Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust (will list under BXDC), which will acquire newly constructed data centers, is aiming to raise slightly over $1.7 billion in an initial public offering in the United States to bet on the red-hot data center industry.
• In Payments: earnings this week include FISV, PYPL, JKHY, GPN, FOUR, VYX, AFRM, CPAY, RKT, TOST, XYZ, and FIS. RBC said they believe that the Payments group will deliver in line to better than expected results, except for FOUR, which we believe will be impacted by seasonally weaker and Middle East-impacted Global Blue.
• In Lending: FNMA Initiated Outperform and $10 PT and FMCC Outperform and $9 PT in GSEs at Mizuho saying the core guarantee franchise is amongst the best businesses one could hope for: a fee-based, asset-light business that’s geographically diversified, and implicitly backed by the US government. The sole debate is if, when and under what conditions will the post GFC conservatorships end?

• ASRT and Garda Therapeutics entered into an Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger pursuant to which Garda has increased its offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Assertio to $21.80 per share in cash with no contingent value right
• AXSM shares jumped on earnings results this morning, adding to last Thursday gains of nearly 13% after FDA approval of Auvelity expansion into ADA.
• CELC announced positive topline results from the PIK3CA mutant cohort of the Phase 3 VIKTORIA-1 clinical trial; said achieves primary endpoint with clinically meaningful improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) in PIK3CA mutant cohort; intends to submit data to the FDA as a Supplemental New Drug Application
• LLY shares active after a patient taking its new weight-loss pill, Foundayo, experienced liver failure, according to a FDA database.
• MIRM shares jumped after saying it met its primary endpoint for a Phase 2b study of its treatment for primary sclerosing cholangitis; said volixibat, an oral treatment designed to selectively inhibit the body’s ileal bile acid transporter, met the primary endpoint in its Vistas Phase 2b study.
• TAK announced that TAK-881-3001, a pivotal Phase 2/3 clinical trial in patients with Primary Immunodeficiency Disease, met its primary endpoint, which demonstrated pharmacokinetic comparability between the investigational TAK-881 and HYQVIA.

• Data Center/AI Infrastructure: IREN announced the successful energization of its 1.4GW Sweetwater 1 data center site in Texas. Energization marks the connection of the site’s high-voltage substation to the ERCOT grid, representing a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus.
• In Software:
• SAP said to purchase Prior Labs, accelerating SAP’s success in TFMs that started with SAP-RPT-1, and bringing one of the world’s leading TFM research teams into the SAP family.
• Telecom & Internet: CCOI shares tumbled after posted Q1revenue of $231.9M, missing the consensus of $241.9M as of-net revenue fell 4.2% sequentially and 17.0% y/y, reflecting continued reduction in off-net customers and connections; Q1 basic loss per share of (-$0.83), beat analyst est. of loss per share of (-$1.00).

• AMD was downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC (raise tgt to $340) saying they see limited upside to the company’s Q1 estimates, saying 2026 server upside will capped by foundry capacity constraints. HSBC cites valuation for the downgrade with AMD shares up 77% since the beginning of April.