Mid-Morning Look: April 17, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, April 17, 2026

U.S. stocks are looking to make it 3 straight closing all-time record highs for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq, with the Nasdaq on track for a 13^th consecutive winning day as oil prices plunge and investors remain optimistic a full peace deal between the U.S. and Iran can be reached shortly after major developments this morning. After falling five consecutive weeks in March/late February, major U.S. averages are now on track for three straight winning weeks, with the last two being the best weekly returns since November. The Smallcap Russell 2000 is also on track for a record high close. Just massive upside market momentum following new developments out of Iran today! Stock futures popped initially on a report by Axios that the U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. https://tinyurl.com/mwpjw67m . The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) continued its decline after the Axios report and US Treasury yields decline on the report US as the 10-year yields last at 4.24%, Two-year yields at 3.72%. The market last leg higher came after Iran’s Foreign minister Araghchi said, “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.” Passage will follow the coordinated route announced by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization. Those headlines pushed oil prices much lower (10%) and lifted stocks, bonds and precious metals, and also boosted airlines, cruise lines and others that benefit from lower energy costs. President Trump did note: “”the strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full Passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete. This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President Donald J. Trump.” More market momentum to the upside with only Energy (XLE) and Utilities (XLU) trading lower. Note the S&P 500 is now up over +12% higher since the March 30th low. @charliebilello noted on X, “The S&P 500 just crossed above 7,100 for the first time. A year ago, it was at 5,300. 5 years ago, it was at 4,200. 10 years ago, it was at 2,100. $SPX.” The U.S. dollar (DXY) is headed for a second weekly drop, and hovered near six-week lows, after snapping its 8 day losing streak on Thursday.

• In Metals & Mining: precious metals got an early boost, with GOLD, NEM, HL, WPM and others moving higher with gold and silver benefitting from lower oil and weaker dollar after Iran headlines; aluminum producer AA reported a miss on the top and bottom line as Q1 adj EPS $1.40 vs est $1.49 on revs $3.193B vs est $3.297B; expects FY total alumina and Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged.
• In Auto Semis: Mizuho upgraded STM to Outperform and new $48 PT, TXN upgraded to Neutral and raised $215 PT on Ai/DC Industrial Recovery and NXPI was downgraded to Underperform and cut PT to $188 in semis saying ahead of earnings, assesses three key analog industry drivers: 1) Ai DC is a key 2026-27E growth vector with 800V NVDA Ai racks benefiting power semis, with SiPho starting to ramp (positive for STM, Ex-3), 2) Industrial recovery broadening – green shoots in A&D, Robotics, Medical and energy, with broad China price hikes, up >10% Y/y in April (positive for TXN), and 3) Autos soft in 2026E – global LVP down ~2% Y/y (negative for NXPI) with geopolitical, macro demand headwinds, and elevated inventory potentially signaling more downside to LVP.
• In Trucking/Transports: The Dow Jones transport Average is coming off all-time highs on Thursday and now making new highs, helped greatly by a surge in airlines AAL, ALK, DAL, UAL, JBLU amid a plunge in oil prices; in trucking, KNX lowered Q1 EPS outlook to $0.08-$0.10, down from prior view of $0.28-$0.32 citing negative impact from claims development in LT segment, an adverse decision on VAT reimbursement in Mexico, negative impact due to severe winter weather disruptions and other items.

• CRML +32%; shares jumped after saying Greenland approved its purchase of the remaining 50.5% stake in Tanbreez, lifting ownership to 92.5%. The approval clears a major overhang on the rare earth project. CRML is targeting first ore in late 2028 to early 2029.
• CRVS +12%; after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the drug developer with a buy rating and a $40 price target, citing an attractive entry point.
• DAL +5%; as airline AAL, JBLU, UAL and cruise lines CCL, RCL, NCLH shares jumped as oil prices tumbled after Iran Foreign minister Araghchi said in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.
• HOOD +4%; seeing bounce in bitcoin levered stocks MSTR, IBIT, and others as Bitcoin hits 10-week highs above $77,000
• INTC +2%; among leaders in semiconductors this month, hitting highest levels since 2000 amid surge in chip makers; Philly semi index (SOX) topping 9,450, extending monthly gains to around 25% so far and YTD gains up over 33%; NVDA, AVGO, TSM, WDC extend gains.
• NI +2%; shares rose after announces strategic energy infrastructure agreements to enhance customer value and economic growth in Indiana; signed a long-term energy supply deal with a GOOGL unit and expanded its agreement with AMZN; says new cost savings expand to approximately $1.25B for existing customers.
• ONTO +5%; was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel citing the semiconductor manufacturing company’s solid preliminary revenue. The firm said they were surprised by the muted reaction to their 1H +pre-announcement and even moreso the qualification of its new Gen5 Dragonfly system for 2.5D advanced packaging.

• CF -9%; weakness in fertilizer stocks (MOS, NTR) after Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes it can begin to free up the supply chain and bring down fertilizer prices which have spiked in recent weeks.
• EXC -3%; was downgrade to Equal Weight at Barclays and to market perform at BMO Capital noting Maryland and Pennsylvania are becoming less constructive jurisdictions, which now argues for a wider discount on EXC’s distribution portfolio on most comparatives. Yesterday, PECO filed to withdraw its Electric and gas rate cases.
• FLNC -3%; was downgraded to Sell from Neutral and cut PT to $8 from $22 at UBS saying believes U.S. tax policy is catalyzing a step-change increase in domestic Battery supply by incentivizing Auto OEMs to pivot from EV Battery manufacturing toward utility scale Battery energy storage systems.
• NFLX -11%; shares slid after noting founder Reed Hastings will not stand for re-election to the Board when his current term expires at the Annual Meeting in June. The company also reported better Q1 results as EPS $1.23 vs est $0.76 on revs $12.25B vs est $12.18B, but guides Q2 revs $12.57B vs est $12.63B and EPS $0.78 vs est $0.84.
• XOM -4%; as energy stocks tumble; the group was broadly lower (CVX, PBF, VLO, EOG, HAL) given the pullback in oil prices after Iran/U.S. reach some agreements.