Mid-Morning Look: April 23, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, April 23, 2026

U.S. stocks holding in tight pattern, down slightly after big stock market gains on Wednesday as Wall Street digests a busy day of earnings, economic data, and the Middle East peace talks. The optimism of recent days is being tested, with Iran/U.S. peace talks in limbo, software concerns reemerging and the bond market flashing warning signals. UK government bonds lead a broader selloff in global fixed Income markets as traders boosted bets on interest rate hike hikes by the Bank of England (BOE) after stronger-than-expected PMI data. Oil prices rise a 4^th day as the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade its blockade as Washington continues to stymie the Islamic Republic’s Shipping and Tehran threatens vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US said it was waiting for a response from Iran before the warring sides can restart peace talks, with the impasse and worsening tension over the strait causing energy prices to rise again. In stock news, the Philly semi index (SOX) looking to make it a 17^th straight day of gains to new record highs behind better earnings from TXN LRCX and continued follow upside momentum, while the software bounce in April comes to a halt after NOW and IBM results weigh heavily on the sector. Big gains in defensive S&P sectors as Consumer Staples, REITs and Utilities all up over 1% along with strength in Industrials, while tech fades. Bitcoin prices fail to take out $80K and fade while precious metals also broadly lower.

• S&P Global April flash composite PMI at 52.0 (vs 50.3 in March), U.S. S&P Global April flash services PMI at 51.3 (forecast 50.3) and U.S. S&P Global April flash manufacturing PMI at 54.0 (forecast 52.5). The improvement came mostly from the manufacturing sector and was driven by what S&P Global said was “stock building in the face of concerns over supply availability and price hikes.”
• UK government bonds lead a broader selloff in global fixed Income markets as traders boosted bets on interest rate hike hikes by the Bank of England (BOE) after stronger-than-expected PMI data. Swaps now imply around 59 basis points of tightening by year end, up from 51 bps at the close on Wednesday. UK two year yields rise 5 bps to 4.39%. UK PMIs also showed Manufacturing PMIs rising to 53.6 (51.0 prior). However, there was divergence from the Euro-zone in that UK Services also rose to 52.0 (from 50.5).

• In Casinos & Gaming: LVS reported Q1 adj EPS and total revenue above expectations, driven by strong demand from both its Macau and Singapore businesses. Revenue from its Singapore operations rose 27.9% to $1.49B from a year earlier, while revenue from its Macau operations rose 23.7% to $2.11B, but boosted its capex view for the full year and Jefferies called out elevated promotional “intensity” in Macau’s premium segment. Bank America lower Q1 EBITDA estimate for FLUT to $105M, and DKNG Q1 EBITDA estimate to $130M, both below Street as think risk to Q1 numbers is understood, and now investor focus is moving to risk on full year numbers; also lower FY26 EBITDA estimates to the low end of guides: $700M for DraftKings and $850M for FanDuel.
• In Analog/auto semis: TXN posted strong Q1 results and guided Q2 higher driven by stronger demand within Industrials, which grew 20% q/q and 30% Y/y, and Data Center, which grew 25% q/q and 90% Y/y; Industrial demand broadened and accelerated through Q1, as it observed q/q and Y/y growth across all sectors and geos. STM delivers a modest 1Q top-line beat, Q1 revenue rises 23% beating estimates; raises datacenter outlook for 2026-2027, but margin pressure remains, with gross margins below historical; ON was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B Riley and raise tgt to $115 from $64 as expects in-line to selectively better quarterly execution from the specialty materials companies despite persisting geopolitical risks.
• In Insurance: AFL files for offering of up to 51.64M shares of common stock by selling stockholder; GHSD posted Q1 operating EPS of $0.37 beating consensus of $0.20 driven by better-than-expected contingent commissions ($10.7M vs $4.5M) and new business commission ($7.5M vs $6.1M est.), while renewal Royalty fees ($43.6M vs $43.5M est.) were in line (total revs beat); WRB was upgraded from Underperform to Market Perform Wat BMO Capital after results saying thinks Mitsui has played out and now reached 15% stated ownership (and is unlikely to go materially higher in the near-term) and 2027 consensus EPS ests have fallen 6% since last October, driven by less top-line growth. The Information reported that major insurers including Berkshire Hathaway, CB, TRV are taking steps to cut Ai-related damages from corporate Insurance policies, and U.S. State regulators are giving them the green Light.

• CSX +4%; reported better-than-expected Q1 2026 results, largely driven by stronger cost performance and management expects EBIT margin improvement at the high end of its targeted 200–300 bps range, reflecting strong momentum on the cost side.
• HAS +6%; reports preliminary Q1 sales above estimates as guides preliminary Q1 revenue $970M-$985M, above consensus $908.83M as sees quarterly sales to rise between 3% and 5%; delays first-quarter earnings report due to a cybersecurity incident involving an unauthorized access to the toymaker’s network.
• MOH +11%; Q1 EPS of $2.35 above consensus $1.89 which reflected modestly lower topline (1.6)%/(0.6)% vs consensus, offset by consolidated MLR of 91.1%, which was 90-bps better (lower) than consensus.
• OKLO +9%; was initiated at Buy and $96 tgt at HSBC Holdings noting the co is positioned to leverage the new DOE-led licensing process for its 75 MW Aurora powerhouses and fuel Foundry. OKLO also announced is teaming with NVDA on Nuclear fuel validation and Ai-driven R&D under the federal Genesis Mission
• TXN +16%; posted strong Q1 results and guided Q2 higher driven by stronger demand within Industrials, which grew 20% q/q and 30% Y/y, and Data Center, which grew 25% q/q and 90% Y/y; Industrial demand broadened and accelerated through Q1, as it observed q/q and Y/y growth across all sectors and geos.
• URI +19%; on results and raised guide as Q1 adj EPS $9.71 vs est $8.97 on revs $3.99B vs est $3.87B; guides FY revs $16.9-17.4B vs est $17.06B and Bank America noted Fleet productivity is the key (Q1 2.3% vs Q4 0.5%)
• WST +13%; shares jumped after raising FY26 adj EPS forecast to $8.40-$8.75 from its prior forecast of $7.85-$8.20 per share (ests $8.01) after posting Q1 EPS beat $2.13 vs. $1.68.

• ASGN -39%; shares tumbled after disappointing Q126 results and weak Q226 guidance as the company cited fewer high-margin projects and lengthening sales cycles; Q2 guidance was weaker than expected given mix issues; guides Q2 revs $970M-$1.0B vs est $1.02B and adj EPS $0.72-$0.90 vs est $1.28.
• CAR -39% as the largest short squeeze in some time unravels for a second day; CAR was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan on unsustainable valuation not supported by fundamentals.
• FCX -11%; Q1 copper production was down 23.7% to 662 million recoverable pounds from a year earlier and the co cut forecast for its Grasberg mine in Indonesia to 800M pounds of copper and 700M ounces of gold this year, compared with its prior expectations of 1.1 billion pounds of copper cathode and around 800M ounces of gold.
• HON -2%; shares fell on mixed results as Q1 EPS $2.45 beat est. $2.32, but sales $9.1B miss ests $9.3B facing rising inflation and a challenging geopolitical environment during the recent quarter; maintains 2026 sales outlook at $38.8B-$39.8B but lowers 2026 operating cash flow outlook to $4.4B-$4.7B.
• IBM -9%; Q1 results/guidance largely in-line with positives RedHat (24% of software) accelerated to +10% versus Q425 +8% and Data/AI (21%) +8% organic growth versus +4% annual guide, while negatives were organic cc software growth decelerated from +7.5% Q425 to ~5% in Q126 and Automation (26%) organic growth decelerated sequentially from +5-6% Y/y to flattish.
• LMT -5%; shares came into the day down 7 straight and -10% during that stretch, extending losses today after mixed results as Q1 EPS $6.44 vs. est. $6.70; Q1 revs $18.02B below  est. $18.24B as high costs on fixed-price contracts and production slowdowns impacted.
• LULU -11%; the WSJ reported LULU is hiring longtime NKE executive Heidi O’Neill to be its next Chief Executive. Hedgeye’ s Brian McGough noted, “Heidi O’Neill is literally the WORST Choice to be the new LULU CEO. She’s going to turn this company into an even hotter mess than it already is. So much talent out there and they picked the person that did nothing but fail at Nike. The Board messed up big time here.”
• MEDP -25%; shares declined as weaker bookings/B2B and mgmt changes overshadowed  beats in both revs and EBITDA while guidance was reiterated: Q1 bookings -15% vs. consensus, Net Book-to-Bill 0.88x; revs $707M vs. $693M and EBITDA $149.4M vs. $140M while President Jesse Geiger to resign.
• NOW -16%; Wall Street analysts lowered price tgts across the board as Stifel noted investors were underwhelmed by the company’s 2Q CC cRPO organic guide (~17% vs 20% 1Q), near-term Armis dilution and another skinny (~100bps) cRPO beat, while the company raised their CY26 AI target to $1.5B from $1B
• SMCI -8%; shares tumbled after Bluefin said checks indicate firm lost material contract with ORCL.
• TMO -9%; reported Q1 revenue$11.01B  grew 6%, beating analyst expectations of $10.85B and adj EPS for Q1 rose 6%, beating analyst expectations; notes they expect the conflict in the middle East to create some modest level of inflationary pressure though notes end markets progressing as expected in our original guidance.
• TSLA -4%; shares fell after the co 2026 estimate for capex will be “over $25B,” and will result in negative free cash flow for the rest of the year; also reported Q1 beat, with adj EPS of $0.41 above ests $0.33 and both revenue and margin were beats, with Auto gross margin unexpectedly strong at 19.2% vs est. 15.4%, while overall gross margin of 21.1% was a beat vs est. 17.5%; FCF of $1.4B was a solid beat vs consensus of negative -$1.6B.