Mid-Morning Look: June 15, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, June 15, 2026

New record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial average and Russell 2000 Small cap index as U.S. stocks are ripping higher to kick off the week, as bonds rallied and oil prices tumbled 5% as a framework peace deal between the United States and Iran was expected to ease inflationary pressures globally. The U.S. and Iran said they had agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, news that brought relief to oil traders although the pact may hinge on an end to Israel’s hostilities in Lebanon – and defers talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be regulated by Tehran and Oman, a potential blow to the rules of free trade that suggests there might be a toll of some kind on transits. Big gains in stock market leaders like Technology (XLK +3%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +2%) and industrials and Materials, while Energy (XLE) falls -3.75%, and defensive Consumer Staples (XLP) and Healthcare (XLV) bot lag. Crude oil plunges -5.5% to $80/barrel, the lowest level in three months after the US and Iran announce a peace deal. Cryptocurrencies rejoice at Iran deal news as Bitcoin and Ethereum see sizeable bounces, bouncing further off recent June 5th lows. Bitcoin held the 60K level this month and is now +3.9% around $66,500 and Ethereum up around 8% above $1,800, and gold prices extend gains up over 3.5%.

Lots of notable sector movers on macro news as energy stocks (XOM, COP, CVX) fall on tumbling oil prices while travel/lodging names CCL, RCL, EXPE, AAL, DAL advance on the falling oil prices; Treasury yields slide ahead of the FOMC meeting this Wednesday helping lift interest rate sensitive sectors like homebuilders (LEN, KBH, DHI) and Small caps as the Russell 2000 outperforms again. With risk sentiment improving on Iran/US deal, seeing crypto rebound off June lows as Bitcoin jumps over 3% while also seeing a notable rebound in precious metal prices and miners (AEM, NEM, HL, CDE). The Fed meets June 16-17, and nobody expects a rate move, but this isn’t a normal meeting as it’s Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair — and the dot plot, the press conference, and any shift in language could matter more than the decision itself. Also, this week, Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates.

@Bluekurtic noted on X today that, “For only the 10th time since 2006, the S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX both gapped up more than 1% while USO gapped down over 2% at the open. The move was usually followed by short term strength. Three weeks later, $SPY was positive 8 of 9 times with a median gain of 4.6%.”

• U.S. June NAHB Housing market index 35 (consensus 37) versus 37 in May (previous 37); June index of current single-family home sales 38 versus 40 in May (previous 40), June index of prospective buyers 25 versus 25 in May (previous 25) and NAHB June index of home sales over next six months 45 versus 45 in May (previous 45).

• In Space sector: SPCX shares add to Fridays strong momentum following last week’s IPO debut. The stock jumped 19% on Friday, propelling the rockets-to-AI firm to a valuation of more than $2 trillion. This weekend, CEO Elon Musk says in an X post that co could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, compared with $18.7 billion reported for 2025. Note the stock is set for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, with additional FTSE Russell and MSCI index additions later in June. Keybanc said post SPCX IPO-related volatility, they see compelling opportunities across the rapidly growing space sector. Keybanc upgraded RKLB (135 tgt) and FLY ($50 tgt) as they see unique, LT growth avenues for both.
• Materials & Industrial Metals weaker (CF, NTR, AA, CENX, DOW, NAT, ZIM) as some fertilizer, Aluminum, chemical, nat gas & Shipping names lower due to interim US/Iran peace deal. Precious Metals were strong early on lower Treasury yields and oil prices, lifting shares of gold and silver miners (AEM, NEM, GOLD, CDE, HL). In Steels, Tokyo Steel Manufacturing, Japan’s top electric-arc furnace steelmaker, said that it will raise steel product prices in July by about 1% to 3%, citing higher costs and firmer steel market conditions. It is the company’s first price increase in two months and includes its main H-shaped beams.
• Consumer Finance: COF said domestic credit card net charge-off rate 4.82%, delinquency rate 3.33% as of May 31, 2026; Auto loan net charge-off rate 1.45%, delinquency rate 4.24%, nonperforming loan rate 0.62%. AXP said it will buy TheFork, an online restaurant reservation and management platform in Europe, from TRIP for $700M. AmEx already owns Resy and Tock in the dining platform space. BAC said its credit card charge-off rate was 2.33% in May and credit card delinquency rate was 1.30%.

• HL +11%; Precious Metals were strong early on lower Treasury yields and oil prices, lifting shares of gold and silver miners (AEM, NEM, GOLD, CDE, HL).
• NCLH +4%; U.S. travel-related stocks rise in premarket trading after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over oil-related costs. Cruise operators NCLH, CCL, RCL and VIK jump along with other travel-related shares, ABNB, EXPE, BKNG after the conflict has disrupted global flight routes and shut key Middle Eastern hubs.
• OUST +14%; after expands partnership with BHE of their long-term manufacturing partnership to support the high-volume production of Ouster’s new Rev8 OS sensor family for industrial, robotics, automotive, and smart infrastructure applications.
• PAYO +4%; Nuvei to Acquire PAYO for $7.40 per share in cash, or $2.75B as the transaction combines Nuvei’s payment acceptance capabilities with Payoneer’s cross-border payouts, multi-currency accounts and banking network.
• SPCX +5%; shares add to Fridays strong momentum following last week’s IPO debut. The stock jumped 19% on Friday, propelling the rockets-to-AI firm to a valuation of more than $2 trillion. This weekend, CEO Elon Musk says in an X post that co could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

• CF -3%; as some fertilizer, Aluminum, chemical, nat gas & Shipping names lower due to interim US/Iran peace deal (CF, NTR, AA, CENX, DOW, NAT, ZIM shares all active).
• CMTL 23%; as entered into a definitive agreement to sell most of its Satellite and Space Communications segment to GILT and become a focused public safety technology company. Gilat will acquire most of the S&S segment for $157.5 million, of which $10.0 million is being paid today.
• ELTX -72%; after saying its pancreatic cancer therapy failed to significantly extend the time patients lived without their disease returning, missing the main goal of a mid-stage study. The development marks a severe setback for the company and is currently evaluating multiple strategic financing and partnership opportunities.
• FISV -6%; after Mike Lyons steps down as CEO and board member to become CEO of TFC while FISV reaffirms 2026 outlook: organic revenue growth 1%-3%, adj EPS $8-$8.3 vs. est. $8.10.
• INCY -4%; updated data at EHA conference for its mCALR antibody, as ‘989 showed lower complete hematologic responses in ET vs prior measures (70% vs 76% at ASH), but speed of responses in ~2 weeks is encouraging for rapid symptom relief.
• NMRA -44%; shares tumble after saying it would discontinue the development of its experimental depression drug navacaprant after it failed to meet main goals of two late-stage trials; said navacaprant was less effective than a placebo in reducing depression symptoms after six weeks of treatment.
• PTCT -3%; after announces proposed convertible notes offering to refinance 2026 convertible notes; to offer $500M convertible Senior notes due 2031.