Mid-Morning Look: May 08, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, May 08, 2026

U.S. stocks soaring to new record highs just about daily over the last 2 weeks, helped by a very strong earnings season as of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. Adding fuel to the fire today a stronger jobs data, a positive for the economy with more jobs data and more weekly hours worked as the AI impact fears to jobs take a back seat today. April Nonfarm payrolls +115,000 (consensus +62,000) vs March upwardly revised figure of +185,000. After a small one day reprieve, semis back to tech leadership and mass outperformance over software (IGV) as the SOX rises 3% and IGV falls -2% behind HUBS results (the SOX Semi Index +9.4% on month and 5.3% on week). Another good week for major averages with the Nasdaq on track for a 4% rise, the S&P 500 2.2%, the Russell 2000 +1.3% and the Dow a modest rise. What can slow down this market?

While many TV pundits note the market rally has been broad based (which it has as Materials +13.5% YTD, Energy +24% and Industrials +12%), the biggest leaders in tech have pushed the XLK to +20% YTD and are mainly responsible for the mass jump in markets over the last 6 week winning streak. @KobeissiLetter noted on X, Alphabet, $GOOGL , Nvidia, $NVDA , Amazon, $AMZN , Broadcom, $AVGO , and Apple, $AAPL, have collectively accounted for ~50% of the S&P 500’s total gains since April 1st. This means these 5 stocks have added ~6 percentage points to the +12% rally of the index over this period.” Memory stocks remain on fire as MU +9% on day topping $700 for the first time (up 36% in May and +147% YTD), and SNDK +7.5% on day (+31% in May and 507% this year) on surging memory prices for AI needs. Stocks look set to close at new highs (again) as President Trump’s statement that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite headlines of some escalation late Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, as a weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum.

Regarding the Middle East, Iran said Thursday it is reviewing messages from the U.S. received via Pakistani mediators, but it has yet to reach a conclusion or deliver a reply, according to Iranian state media, citing an Iranian official. Axios and other news outlets reported earlier this week that the countries were nearing a 14-point memorandum of understanding to put an end to the war and resume talks around Iran’s nuclear program.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim May 48.2 (consensus 49.5) vs final April 49.8 as the current conditions index prelim May 47.8 (consensus 52.0) vs final April 52.5 and the consumers expectations index prelim May 48.5 (consensus 48.1) vs final April 48.1 and the
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim May 4.5% vs final April 4.7% and the survey of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim May 3.4% vs final April 3.5%
• March wholesale inventories revised to +1.3% vs. consensus +1.4% as U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8%; U.S. March wholesale sales +2.8% vs Feb +2.6%. U.S. March stock/sales ratio 1.21 months’ worth vs Feb 1.23 months

• In Retailers: Wells Fargo said they are positive on apparel from the tailwind arising from expanding use of GLP-1 medications and the lift to overall clothing spend – it sees an annual 160bps, 170bps, and 30bps lift to apparel’s LT ~3.0% CAGR over the next 3 years. The firm upgraded VSCO to Overweight and highlight them as a clear winner today, while leaning more positive URBN as well. In the other side, they are incrementally negative on footwear and athletic apparel saying footwear does not benefit from the size change associated with weight loss as they downgraded NKE (PT to $45 from $55) to Equal weight and DECK to Underweight (PT to $90 from $115).
• Online Travel/Lodging: EXPE Q1 results beat its estimates and Q2 guidance came in ahead of its prior expectations, but the company left FY26 guidance unchanged which weighed on shares; ABNB reported strong Q1 results, with GBV, revenue, and profitability all coming in ahead of consensus. Nights Booked was slightly above expectations and decelerated ~60 bps q/q, though growth would have accelerated if not for a ~100 bps impact from cancellations related to the Middle East conflict (raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to the “low- to mid-teens”, compared with “at least low double-digits”).
• Payments & FinTech: Outside of better results and guidance from XYZ overnight lifting shares, the sector seeing lots of weakness on results as FIS falls as Q1 results topped views but guided Q2 EPS $1.45-$1.49, missing the $1.50 consensus; AFRM was little changed after its mixed results; TOST shares fell despite strong Q1 results across key operating metrics, including higher-than-expected location additions, GPV growth, and SaaS annual recurring revenue per location and raised guidance as well.

• FLNC +35%; was upgraded to Buy from neutral at Roth and raise tgt to $26 from $13 after the co delivered FQ2 EBITDA modestly ahead of expectations despite a revenue miss, as GMs rebounded from FQ1 levels and reiterated FY’26 guidance while also signed MSAs with two hyperscalers.
• FROG +16%; reported strong Q1 results, as Cloud growth accelerated to 50% and handily beat expectations, accelerating 800bps QoQ, with Cloud now 51% of total revenue, provided encouraging commentary on pipeline strength, and raised FY26 guidance (+18.5% YoY at mid).
• IREN +8%; after the company announced NVDA to invest up to $2.1B as part of a broader AI partnership between the two firms, intended to accelerate deployment of large-scale AI factories; the deal gives NVDA a five-year right to buy up to 30 million IREN shares at $70 per share.
• MNST +13%; shares jumped on results as Q1 results beat as revs rose 26.9% Y/y to $2.35B above consensus $2.16B; did not provide specific financial guidance for the current quarter or full year; Q1 Net sales in the Monster Energy Drinks segment rose 27.6% Y/y, driven by increased consumer demand
• RKLB +23%; shares jumped as Q1 revs rose 63.5% y/y to $200.35M vs. est. $190M on better guide as sees Q2 revs $225M-$240M vs. est. $201M; said record number of new launch and space systems contracts signed in Q1, including 31 Electron and HASTE contracts and five Neutron launches

• CRWV -9%; beat 1Q26 expectations with active power now exceeding 1GW while 2Q revenue was below consensus, and management maintained full-year revenue, op. income, and capacity guides.
• EXPE -7%; Q1 results beat its estimates and Q2 guidance came in ahead of its prior expectations, but the company left FY26 guidance unchanged which weighed on shares.
• FLR -11%; shares fall on results as Q1 adj EPS $0.14 misses consensus $0.62 on revs $3.66B vs. consensus $3.89B; is narrowing its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 from $525M-$585M to $525-$560M as upper end of guidance reflects Q1 recognition of cost growth on a mining project in the Americas.
• FWRD -35%; tumbled after Q1 revs fell -5% y/y to $582M missing the $620M consensus though Q1 net loss narrowed and operating income improved y/y, while notably disclosed that $250mm of revenue from a very large customer is now at risk and announced plans to divest its Intermodal division.
• HUBS -21%; on guidance growth strategy; reported a quarterly beat and in-line guidance and its net-new ARR broke its streak of growing faster than the overall business; shares were downgraded by several analyst noting the path to growth reacceleration has become more uncertain.
• MELI -11%; as Q1 revs $8.8B vs. est. $8.3B; Q1 Ebit $857M vs. est. $931M; Q1 net profit of $417M, a 15.6% drop compared to year prior; Q1 GMV $19B, total payment volume $87.2B
• NET -22%; after better results and mixed guidance as they raised its full-year revenue guide by $19M to account for the higher 1Q revenue but implies a deceleration in revenue growth through the year (30% CY26 growth).
• TTD -4%; as Q1 adj EPS $0.28 misses est $0.32 on revs $689M vs. est. $679.2M; guides Q2 revs at least $750M vs. est. $771.3M saying advertisers turned more cautious with their budgets in an uncertain macroeconomic environment