Mid-Morning Look: September 16, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

The waiting game is on as the September FOMC interest rate policy meeting results are expected at 2:00 pm et where Wall Street is now expecting a 25 bps rate hike with futures still pointing to another round of hikes with December/March being the most likely favorable outcome vs an October/December hike view. Warsh will hold his press conference this afternoon following the release of the FOMC prepared statement. The rise in US Treasury yields to two-decade highs this week has paused despite oil prices holding near highs, offering some relief to battered risk assets. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious at this stage. The U.S. dollar is holding its ground relatively well against its G10 peers with all eyes on the Fed. While a 25bps hike is almost fully priced in by markets, the risk of interest rates being left unchanged is higher at around 20%. Given the higher jobs reading, bond yields surging, and inflation data hotter (CPI), the Fed is increasingly confronting a credibility problem rather than an inflation problem if they decide to keep rates steady. In stock news, transports are weaker given a pullback in truckers after JBHT CFO warned last night that Q3 earnings to drop by 5%-10% compared with Q2 amid a spike in fuel and labor costs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.977%, slightly lower than the 4.981% recorded before retail sales came in stronger than expected this morning. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.632%. Bond market investors will watch what Chairman Kevin Warsh says about the rate path and the state of the bond market.

• August import prices rise +0.7% topping consensus +0.4% and vs July -0.3%; Aug export prices +0.6% just above consensus +0.5% and vs July -1.4%; Aug y/y import prices +7.0%, export prices +8.6% and Aug non-petroleum import prices +0.8% and +5.5%, y/y.
• U.S. homebuilder sentiment dropped to a one-year low in September as rising mortgage rates dampen demand for housing, a survey showed. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index fell three points to 32 this month, the lowest reading since September 2025, from 35 in August. Economists polled had forecast the index easing to 34.
• July Business Inventories +0.8% (consensus +0.3%) vs June +0.1% (prev unchanged).

• Homebuilders: Truist downgraded MTH to Hold from Buy and cutting its estimates on the housing group today as well saying with mortgage rates surging above 7% (and showing no signs of slowdown), the firm thinks Builders are going to have to once again ramp incentive usage, reversing course from the last few quarters. Truist lowered its 2027 GMs for the group anywhere between 30-60 bps. Mortgage demand dropped 4% last week and that was before 30-year fixed-rate loans topped 7%. Ahead of LEN earnings tonight, Truist cut its price target on the homebuilder to $75 citing increases.
• Neocloud/data center sector: CIFR shares jumped after announced that it received the following ERCOT Batch Zero designations. Needham noted Conditional Base Load: Stingray (100MW, Leased with AWS), Colchis (1GW), while Conditional Studied Load: Mikeska (500MW, PCLR qualified), Apollo (900MW, PCLR qualified), Stingray Phase II (200MW, PCLR qualified), McLennan (500MW). CRWV signed a 15-year anchor lease with Blockfusion for capacity at its Niagara Falls, New York AI data center campus, with two additional five-year renewal options. NOK announced growing global momentum for AI-RAN, with operators across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East advancing AI-RAN from early evaluation to lab and live field trials.

• CIFR +12%; after announced that it received the following ERCOT Batch Zero designations. Needham noted Conditional Base Load: Stingray (100MW, Leased with AWS), Colchis (1GW), while Conditional Studied Load: Mikeska (500MW, PCLR qualified), Apollo (900MW, PCLR qualified), Stingray Phase II (200MW, PCLR qualified), McLennan (500MW).
• INTC +4%; as Reuters reported overnight that SKHY is in talks with INTC about a deal that would see it manufacture memory chips on U.S. soil for the first time. However, shares of both have pared gains after SK Hynix says no plans confirmed on reported talks with Intel.
• RCKT +2%; was upgraded to Buy at Needham after the FDA reaffirmed the pivotal study design for RP-A501 in Danon Disease, except for a recalibrated dose and prophylaxis; the FDA outlined a clear regulatory path, setting a 12-patient efficacy population under the modified dosing protocol.

• CLLS -13%; was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays and cut PT to $1.30 saying the company’s strategic shift and move back to a preclinical stage company not the issue, however the preclinical data offered to-date leaves them with questions.
• EXPE -2%; resumed coverage at Underweight at Morgan Stanley with $235 PT citing weaker consumer assets, higher supplier direct risk, and valuation premium vs history.
• HBAN -1%; said it sees 2026 net interest income growth of about 35%, down from its prior forecast of 39%-43%, while increasing its expected share repurchases to $1.3B-$1.4B; also lowered its FY26 implied rev growth outlook to about 34% from its previous estimate of around 37%.
• JBHT -12%; truckers were pressured after JBHT issued a negative Q3 upside on higher costs at a conference last night as said they see Q2 to Q3 earnings to drop 5%-10% amid higher costs