Market Review: October 01, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 01, 2026

U.S. stocks started the day flat, came under pressure early to late morning as Treasury yields extended their recent run higher as the 10-yr and 30-yr yield both hit more than 20 years high again along with higher oil prices, but bottomed around noon to close higher on the first day of the month. Treasury yields began to pullback mid-afternoon, taking pressure after interest rate sensitive stocks and sectors that have been impacted by the relentless push higher for yields. The S&P 500 bounced more than 60 points off morning lows to end the day higher, once again paced by strength in technology (XLK) as semis (SOX) and software (IGV) rallied, along with industrials (XLI) and Energy (XLE). It was an overall lackluster trading day for the major averages as we approach the start of Q3 earnings in a few weeks, midterm elections in a month and markets moving on every economic data point, headline over the U.S./Iran war, and Fed speakers which have been plentiful.

• August construction spending rises +0.9% (vs. consensus unchanged) to $2.203 trln, vs July -0.1% (prev -0.5%) while August private construction spending +1.1%, public spending +0.2%
• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 54.5 in September (vs. consensus 55.0) vs 54.6 in August while the prices paid index jumped to 77.9 in September vs. consensus 72.3 and above the 71.1 in August; new orders index 55.3 in September vs 53.7 in August and employment index 52.7 vs 51.2 in August.

• Meanwhile the U.S. dollar remains higher, up over 3% this year as the euro hit its lowest point in 17 months, below $1.13 for the first time since May 2025 (low of 1.1216), as the buck has been rising the past couple of months, thanks in part to the largest quarterly rise in Treasury yields since 1994. The euro declined nearly 2.5% in September, its largest monthly decline since July 2025 as Europe is facing a range of political uncertainties as well, with a hotly contested French election next year. Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, along with downward revisions to July’s figure.
• Note the U.S. dollar clocked its sixth straight quarter of gains against a basket of currencies by the end of September, its longest such stretch since 2022 when US rates were rising more quickly than those elsewhere. The dollar index was last up 0.65% on the day to 102.10, around its highest level since mid-May. The dollar was up 0.5% at 158.16 after falling 1.4% against the Japanese currency last month.

• Restaurant sector: BJRI was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho and raise tgt to $76 as the firm upped the company’s Q3 same-store-sales growth estimate to 5.5% from 4.6% citing its strong channel checks; sees upside to current same-store-sales growth and margin expectations thru ’27.
• Casinos (WYNN, MLCO, LVS): Macau gross gaming revenue fell 1.2% year over year in September to 18.1B patacas ($2.24B), according to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. The gaming revenue tally was below the consensus expectation for 2.2% growth during the month and 17.5% below the mark from August. Notably, the GGR level was the lowest for any month in 2026. For the first eight months of 2026, Macau GGR is up 3.2% year over year to 187.1B patacas ($23.1B).

• BYDDF global sales rose for a fifth straight month in September, buoyed by strong exports as vehicle sales rose 17% y/y to 463,561 units last month, easing from a 17.8% increase in August, while overseas shipments of passenger vehicles and pickups jumped 153.9% to 179,877 units. The Chinese EV maker sold 3,131,576 vehicles in the first nine months of 2026.
• LI said it delivered 31,817 vehicles in September 2026, down -6.29% from 33,951 vehicles a year ago and -15.56% m/m, returning to a year-on-year decline after a rebound in August. The company’s cumulative deliveries, however, reached 1.83M as of September 30, up from 1.43M y/y. Li Auto delivered 99,964 vehicles in the third quarter, up 7.24% y/y and 1.66% from the second quarter.
• NIO said it delivered 37,408 vehicles in September, up 7.65% y/y from 34,749 and 4.39% from August, helping the company meet its third-quarter delivery guidance; Q3 deliveries climbed to 109,178 vehicles from 87,071 a year ago. Deliveries for the first nine months of 2026 rose 49.2% to 300,301 vehicles. NIO-brand deliveries jumped 55.3% y/y to 21,318 vehicles. FIREFLY deliveries rose 26.9% to 7,327 vehicles but ONVO deliveries fell -42.5% to 8,763 vehicles from 15,246 a year earlier.
• XPEV announced that it plans to give its G9L flagship SUV a global launch at the 2026 Paris Motor Show on October 12/said the G9L is planned for production in Guangzhou, China, and Graz, Austria. XPEV also reported delivering 41,256 vehicles in September 2026, marking a 5% increase from August. The XPENG L03 sedan was a key contributor, accounting for over 10,000 units.
• TSLA Q3 delivery numbers are expected tomorrow, Friday, October 2 with analyst consensus about 462,000 vehicles. Tesla’s own company-compiled sell-side consensus is 461,974 deliveries, with a median of 463,406. That would be about 7% below the Q3 2025 record of 497,099 and roughly 4% below Q2 2026’s 480,126.

• Energy sector: oil prices rising again, energy stocks up again with the XLE up 38% YTD! OXY was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman Sachs with $69 tgt on differentiated advanced recovery approach, strong outlook for debt reduction and dividend growth potential, self-help initiative with a target of $4.0 bn in cash flow improvement by 2030, and attractive risk/reward. BP was upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight at Wells Fargo and raised tgt to $57.

• Bank and broker sector: another brutal trading day for banks as BAC, C, WFC, JPM, ZION, PNC, MS and others extend declines from September as the financial space seeing weakness with Treasury yields impacting consumer spending/lending. NU shares rose after the company issued a statement yesterday denying that it was pursuing an acquisition of Monzo, a U.K. fintech firm; in research, FHB was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as believes the recent increase in the Fed funds rate creates a more favorable earnings setup noting roughly half of First Hawaiians loans are floating rate, while its cost of interest bearing deposits is the lowest in JPMC’s coverage universe.
• Insurance sector: JP Morgan said AON, MRSH favorites in P&C Brokerage and Underweight on RYAN as thinks commercial P&C Brokerage stocks are attractively valued in the aggregate following their sell-off in Q326. The personal lines Brokers also seem undervalued vs their growth prospects, but the overhang from Ai is an impediment to be more positive on stocks.
• REIT (XLRE) sector has come under pressure the last few weeks amid the quick ascent of the 10-year Treasury rate above 5.3% (sector down roughly 9% since late August). Within the REIT industry, arguably the most bond-like sector, which is often most (inversely) correlated to the ebbs and flows of the 10-year Treasury rate, is the net lease sector (down roughly 14% since late August). As such, net lease REITs have experienced a significant selloff over the past several weeks as the 10-year quickly climbed over 50bps.

• GUTS files one-for-twelve reverse stock split of common stock.
• LQDA shares tumbled for a second day after plunging Wednesday after a court ruling in its ongoing patent dispute with UTHR over its Yutrepia drug. The court said Liqudia’s motion to strike is denied, Judge Richard G. Andrews wrote in a court filing.
• NKTR announces new Rezpegaldesleukin data supporting long-term durability and disease improvement in patients with alopecia areata and atopic dermatitis at EADV Congress 2026.
• REGN was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with an $850 price target saying the recent share pullback provides an attractive entry point and believes the shares are in the early stages of solidifying a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
• SNY reached an agreement with REGN to jointly develop and commercialize new immunology drugs; the deal is worth up to $8B, including $1B upfront with Regeneron to jointly develop four long-acting immunology therapies.
• STTK said it plans to evaluate SL-325 in phase 2 clinical trial in patients with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa.

• Aerospace sector: RKLB shares rose earlier after the company said it had signed multi-year launch agreement for 20 new missions for its Electron launch vehicle with Tokyo-based Earth observation co Synspective. Contract is largest commercial launch contract for Electron in RKLB’s history; brings total Electron missions for Synspective to 47.
• Chemical sector: CTVA shares tumbled after successfully spinning off its advanced seed and Genetics business into Vylor Inc. (new symbol VYLR), an Independent company, and will move forward as a leading, pure-play global Crop Protection company. Corteva shareholders will receive 1 Vylor share for every 1 Corteva share held on Sept 24, 2026.

• GOOGL unveiled Gemini 4 Argon, its new Frontier model and the top model in the Gemini 4 Generation. Pricing: $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens, with cached input priced 95% lower. Argon can generate up to 1M output tokens in a single trajectory, up from 64K previously.
• NBIS has acquired Inferize, an AI inference optimization startup, with terms undisclosed. Inferize’s technology is designed to reduce model “cold starts,” cutting the time GPUs sit idle while models load and new capacity spins up.
• SPCX Ai unit held talks over the summer about leasing Computing capacity to MSFT, The Information reported citing people familiar with the matter, a sign of how fully Elon Musk has embraced the neocloud business after his initial reluctance. Selling Computing power has quickly become one of SpaceX’s most lucrative businesses, generating billions of dollars a month in commitments from compute-constrained Ai Labs including Anthropic and Google, with more deals still to kick in
• AMZN’s AWS is raising reserved GPU pricing by ~15% across NVDA B300, B200 & H100 capacity starting next week. Market participants note this is another sign premium Ai compute remains supply constrained and a strong readthrough for NBIS, CRWV, IREN as available capacity keeps getting more valuable.

• Hardware & Component sector: VICR raised its Q3 sequential growth forecast to more than 30%, up from more than 20% saying the raise is driven by increased royalties from the previously announced first non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery (VPD).
• IT Services & Consulting: ACN reported Q4 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18B, with Q4 new bookings of $22.2B while raised saying it now expects annual revenue growth between 3% and 6%, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 3.9%; the results and guidance help IBM, CTSH, INFY as well as software stocks.
• EDA Sector: SNPS provides FY26-FY30 financial targets; sees FY27 adjusted EPS $19.04-$19.12, vs. consensus $17.69 and sees FY27 revenue $11.1B-$11.2B, vs. consensus $10.8B; said intends to repurchase $1B in shares over coming months.
• Software sector: APP shares down for an 8th straight day and 12 of last 13 to 52-week lows – negative comments by Wells Fargo yesterday saying, "acceleration in eComm Pixel Adoption driven by no/low traffic sites; as inflection appears to be a false start." TCEHY signed its largest overseas lease deal with ORCL to access about 100,000 advanced AI chips that were not available in China, the Financial Times reported. Tencent this year agreed to a five-year lease across multiple Oracle data centers in south-east Asia. The deal is estimated to be worth about $7B, with an upfront payment of about 30%.

• AVGO to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, as Anthropic’s IPO prospectus documents extensive partnerships with a handful of big tech firms. The company’s relationship with Anthropic spans compute supply, equipment leasing and financing.
• NVDA completed final $10B installment of its $30B OpenAI commitment as the round closed at an $852B valuation. OpenAI is already targeting another ~$30B raise around $1.4T as its capital needs keep climbing with the compute buildout.