Market Review: October 02, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, October 02, 2026

Major stock indexes rose and the dollar fell on Friday as expectations for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve declined after softer-than-forecast US jobs data. The weaker data boosted U.S. stocks and bonds, as yields fell and gold prices rose as chances of an October hike became slimmer. Expectations for an October rate hike had already been declining going into Friday’s jobs report after two top policymakers said this week they wanted more data before deciding what to do next with interest rates. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) hit a record high early along with AI chip leader NVDA, as large cap tech/AI leaders bounced early. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 133,000 rise in August, and compared to economist estimates of payrolls advancing 90,000. Large cap tech saw good size winners with Tesla (TSLA) rising over 5% on upbeat monthly EV deliveries, while semis (SOX) saw gains. By late day, all but the Healthcare (XLV) sector was up on the day. For the week, the S&P 500 fell -0.3%, the Dow fell -1.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.5%.

• Factory orders edged up 0.1% month-over-month in August following a downwardly revised 0.8% increase in July and matching market forecasts. Non-durable goods orders rose by 0.3%, slowing from a 0.7% increase previously. Meanwhile, durable goods orders fell by 0.1%, reversing a 0.9% advance in the prior month. Excluding transportation, factory orders rose 0.3%.

• Rough day for metals again as gold prices ended lower despite early strength. December gold prices fell -$40.00, or -0.95%, to settle at $4,162.30 an ounce (ends the week -3.6% lower), erasing earlier gains as the metals remain in a downtrend as the US dollar and Treasury yields extend gains. December silver prices fell -$0.76, or -1.24%, to settle at $60.42 an ounce (down -6.7% on week).
• US Treasury yields initially lost ground following the weaker jobs data but ended higher on the day as inflation fears and rate hikes remain a concern. The 10-year yield fell below 5.17% this morning after hitting 5.34% on Thursday, its highest levels since 2002 before ending the day at 5.276%, rising almost 10bps on the week and up 5 consecutive weeks now.
• The U.S. dollar was down against the euro and yen after having risen over 2% the last month (and 1 this past week) vs. the euro. Bitcoin prices topped $87,000 this morning in a strong start for crypto assets before fading the remainder of the day as Treasury yields bounced.

• Sporting Goods sector: Goldman Sachs said 3QTD promotional activity was mixed across sporting goods as DKS and ASO showing higher in-store markdown activity y/y but lower online promotions, while Foot Locker’s promotional breadth increased sequentially but promotion depth declined. The firm reiterates Buy ratings on DKS and ASO, arguing elevated promotions do not alter their competitive positioning, given market share gains, strong vendor relationships.
• Lodging & Leisure sector: ABNB was upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at Keybanc with a $191 price target saying the company’s core growth appears to be increasingly durable and product-led while its hotels bookings are emerging as its credible second growth engine.

• RIVN delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in Q3, beating analysts’ average estimate of 18,001 vehicles after rolling out its cheaper R2 SUV in June targeted at a broader section of the mass EV market/also reaffirmed its 2026 delivery forecast of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, saying quarterly production and deliveries were in line with its expectations
• Ford (F) Q3 US sales totaled 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%; Ford truck & van US sales totaled 891,400 vehicles through Sept. Expected financial impact of supplier issue that affected f-150 trucks production containable within existing FY adj EBIT guidance; Q3 US f-series production up 4.5% to 266,777 trucks.
• Britain’s new Car registrations rose 12% in September from a year earlier to their highest level for the month since 2017, helped by strong demand for Electric vehicles, according to preliminary data from a trade Body on Friday. Battery EV registrations rose 36% y/y to 99,199 units in September, accounting for 28.3% of the market.

• Satellite & Telecom sector: ASTS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy and cut tgt to $65 from $85 at B Riley saying they see a balanced risk/reward at current share levels and says AST faces stronger competitive alternatives, a delayed launch, and rising constellation costs, potentially including additional spectrum. PL shares rose as GOOGL has partnered with Planet Labs to successfully launch its Project Suncatcher prototype satellite into orbit aboard a SPCX rocket. The moonshot initiative will test how well Google’s Tensor Processing Units handle the extreme radiation and thermal conditions of space.
• Defense sector: NOC was downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital and cut its tgt to $525 from $640 saying while they did not have any F/A-XX revenues in its model, it sees ~6% top-line growth in 2026-2028, in-line with peers, as a best-case scenario. Finally, limited capital allocation options restrict potential catalysts, in RBC’s view.
• Metals & Mining: FCX said Q3 Consolidated copper production of approximately 830M pounds was in line with expectations, with slightly better results from international operations offsetting slightly lower production in the U.S.; said U.S. operations experienced lower than planned operating rates in third-quarter 2026 Associated with an increased frequency of localized flooding, power outages and strong winds.

• Crypto sector: A notable bounce for Bitcoin and Ethereum today, helping boost shares of MSTR, COIN, IBIT, BMNR early before fading Citigroup raised its ests and tgt on MSTR to $240 from $136 to incorporate their revised 12-month Bitcoin forecast – base case revised 39% higher to ~$113.4k. Citi’s FY’27 Adj. Bitcoin Yield estimate improves ~190bps to ~5.9% following downward revised expectations for FY’26 Adj Btc Yield of -3.3%, resulting from the company’s cash reserve build and Btc sales in 3Q’26.
• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Neutral as Goldman Sachs as believes risks from new retail-oriented wrappers, durability of zero dated index options and extension of the SPX contract within S&P Global have all diminished, and the near-term volume backdrop remains supportive. CME reported its average daily volume reached new records for September, with 31.8M contracts, up 22% year-over-year, and Q3 with 29.4M contracts, up 16% year-over-year. Both September and Q3 volumes exceeded prior records set in 2024.
• Banks: BNS has received regulatory approval to nearly triple the scale of its share repurchase program, expanding its limit to repurchase up to 40 million shares for cancellation. In Research, Piper upgraded shares of Midwest banks ALRS, HBNC & IBCP to Overweight and downgraded shares of BUSE to Neutral – disciplined and high-quality MSD [at least] organic growth on both B/S sides, defensible-to-expanding NIMs, PPNR upside drivers, and relatively benign credit.

• NVS struck a deal valued at up to $7.8B to license a messenger RNA drug candidate from Abogen Biosciences and gain options over future therapies, turning to China to fill its pipeline. Novartis is paying $575M upfront and could make additional payments of up to $7.2B if options are met.
• SMMT announced a clinical trial collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo and AZN to evaluate ivonescimab, a novel, potential first-in-class investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, in combination with Datroway, a TROP2-directed antibody drug conjugate, across multiple solid tumor settings, intending to include breast and lung cancer.
• Medical Equipment sector: IART cut its FY26 adjusted EPS view to $2.30-$2.40 from $2.40-$2.50 prior and lowered its FY26 revenue view to $1.634B-$1.654B from $1.654B-$1.695B saying Q3 results were impacted by the July flooding event at our Cincinnati facility. ABT was upgraded to Buy at Redburn as has long held that Abbott Medical Devices business can sustain robust growth supported by strong fundamentals and opportunities in cardiovascular and Diabetes.
• Managed care sector: Goldman Sachs noted CMS released the 2027 Medicare Landscape files on September 28, GSCO’s analysis of the Landscape files points to another year of broad-based pricing discipline across the MA industry. Carrier paths diverge: UNH’s small 1.0% PPO County cut follows a ~1.008M-member 2026 PPO reset, HUM’s below-average MOOP, PPO footprint and premium actions look disproportionate to its ~784k PPO member gain, and CNC’s conservative MA bids are offset by rising stand-alone PDP risk as the Part D stabilization demo ends.

• Data Center: APLD shares rallied after earlier saying it has brought an additional 75 megawatts of Computing power online at its data center campus in North Dakota.
• Software sector: TWLO is being moved to the S&P 500 index from the S&P MidCap 400 index. Software sector was mixed after a strong showing Thursday.
• Media sector: PSKY shares fell Thursday and remained weak as Bloomberg reported debt investors are facing rapid losses on recently issued bonds used to finance the Warner transaction

• NVDA was reinstated Top Pick at Morgan Stanley with overweight and $30 PT saying road show highlights the diversity of the company’s business beyond hyperscalers and Frontier Labs The focus on more expensive processor per GW seems likely to pay off given Land/power/shell constraints MSCO sees the rise of agentic as positive for CPU – including Nvidia CPUs.
• HDD names WDC and STX crushed after reports Toshiba will double AI data center HDD capacity within fiscal 2027, investing roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) in its Philippine plant. Its share by storage capacity is just over 10%, with a medium-term target of 30%. The move highlights that data centers are actively choosing cheaper HDDs over SSDs to meet massive AI storage needs.
• ON said it will acquire SYNA for cash rather than stock in a downsized deal, according to an amended agreement between the two companies. ON said it will pay $123 a share for Synaptics, giving the deal a value of around $5.7B. The company previously agreed in June to issue 1.35 shares for each share of Synaptics, in a deal then valued at about $7B