Mid-Morning Look: October 16, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 16, 2026

U.S. stock markets open mixed on this Friday session, splitting along familiar lines: the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping as bank-earnings momentum builds following beats from regional banks, while the S&P 500 slips fractionally to 7,740 and the Nasdaq extends its slide as the chip-led selloff rolls into a ninth straight session for semiconductors (SMH) and fresh financing concerns around AI neoclouds including CoreWeave (CRWV) keep pressure on megacap tech. Helping underpin the broader tape, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks in Bangkok withheld any explicit rate signal. At one point yesterday, the Nasdaq was down -1.4% amid the Ai sell-off. Yet the tech-heavy index bounced off the lows and was able to eke out a 0.08% gain by the closing bell. iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) on track for what would be a 9th straight day of declines, though for now remains well above yesterday lows. Early gains in financials as beaten up banks GS, JPM, WFC, C, bouncing after earnings results this week pressured shares while precious metal miners (NEM, HL, AEM, CDE) rising as metals prices hold higher. Industrial metal stocks getting a boost after AA results lifted shares. Economic data showed September import prices rose +1.1% M/M (vs. +0.8% consensus) and export prices jumped +2.2% (vs. +1.0% consensus), while industrial production rose +0.7% M/M (vs. +0.4% consensus) with capacity utilization climbing to 76.9% (vs. 76.5% consensus) — keeping the inflation debate alive even as rate-hike bets recede.

Treasury yields are little changed on the data, with the 10-year up at 5.11% and the 30-year up 1.4 basis points to 5.443%; gold extends its advance, last up $39.70 to $4,209.80 an ounce as safe-haven demand persists, the dollar index slips -0.35% to 101.69, and bitcoin is roughly flat near $81,920. Materials (XLB +1.4%), Consumer Staples (XLP +1%) and Financials (XLF +0.9) pace nine of eleven S&P sectors higher, while Technology (XLK -1.25%) and Communication Services (XLC -0.6%) are the only two in the red as the AI/semis trade remains under pressure.

• Industrial output for September rose +0.7% vs. consensus +0.4% and vs Aug +0.1% as mining output +0.2% (aug +0.5%), Utilities output +3.5% (aug +1.5%). September capacity use rate 76.9% (consensus 76.5%) vs Aug 76.4% (previous 76.3%).

• Casino & Gaming sector: Deutsche Bank lowered estimates in Vegas/Macau preview, saying recent operating fundamentals across both Las Vegas and Macau have weakened, driving negative estimate revisions and a meaningful decline in share prices. The average share price decline across MGM, WYNN, and LVS over the last two months has been ~27% (vs. SPX -1%), while our 2026 and 2027 estimates have been revised lower by ~2.5% and ~4.0%, respectively. They continue to prefer the more stable Regional Gaming and Las Vegas Locals markets.
• Materials/Chemicals sector: XLB leads all S&P sectors as AA surges on a roughly 6% Q3 EBITDA beat and progress on its Alumina/Ali Group deal, GEF upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James; EMN downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan on narrowing propane-propylene spreads.
• Softlines/Apparel retail sector: group of analyst upgrades lifting names as CPRI upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James on a favorable turnaround setup, EAT also upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James on above-consensus comp expectations, BOOT initiated Buy at Needham.

• CPRI +3%; upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James as sees a favorable setup noting the bar is low given the stock’s P/E of ~6x on estimates that it believes have room to move higher; views FQ2 is likely to exceed expectations for revenue and earnings.
• FMX +4%; upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with a $151 tgt on improved earnings momentum, more minority-friendly capital allocation and a 6% dividend yield.
• GEF +2%; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James with a $90.00 PT on expectations for continued margin expansion from the company’s self-help playbook and favorable Fiber price/cost trends.
• RF +1%; after earnings from the regional bank topped consensus this morning; also earnings results out from CFG, TFC and MTB this morning.
• TRV +1%; posted core Q3 EPS $9.18 vs. est. $7.43 and revs fell to $12.4B y/y but above the consensus $11B; Q3 Bond & Specialty Insurance net written premiums rose 12% to $1.21B and Personal Insurance’s fell 7% to $4.4B; Q3 catastrophe losses $538M up from $402M y/y.
• TSLA +2%; shares rise after the company unveils a redesigned Roadster sports car developed with SPCX. The new model features rocket-style thrusters, set for production in 2028. New Roadster can go from 0-60 mph in under 1 second.
• VRNS +2%; to be acquired by Proofpoint in a $6.3B transaction as shareholders to receive $49.75 per share in cash; until deal closes, Proofpoint & Varonis will continue to operate as separate and Independent companies.

• FOXF -14%; announces CEO transition; guides Q4 revs $287M-$313M, below consensus of $348.5M and cut both its FY26 rev view to $1.35B-$1.38B from $1.42B-$1.47B (est. $1.44B) and its FY26 adj EBITDA view to $140M-$150M from $176M-$196M to reflect input costs at current levels
• MSTR -5%; after MSCI said the bitcoin buyer could be removed from its global indexes under new rules. MSCI said that non-operating companies will be ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the close of Nov 30.
• NFLX -2%; named former Disney executive Peter Rice as chief content officer, replacing 10-year veteran Bela Bajaria; also, as M Science cuts Q3 subscriber add estimates to 3.80 million from 5.10 million, below the 4.10 million consensus
• OMER -11%; after the company announced that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP issued a negative opinion on its marketing authorization application for narsoplimab in TA-TMA, following re-examination of its original negative opinion from June.