Market Review: October 22, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Another brutal showing for the tech sector overall, as the Nasdaq 100 tumbled over 3% late day and the S&P 500 (SPX) dropped over 1%, led primarily by the heavily weighted tech names, while the Smallcap Russell 2000 outperformed given a surprising tumble in Treasury yields as investors fled riskier bets for safer havens. The FOMC rate decision is next week, and expectations are for them to hold rates steady. But until then, the focus remains on earnings and macro events as more concerns in the Middle East took oil prices to their highest levels in 5 months, while investors sold the AI/semi/optical space again. The PHLX Semi Index (SOX) fell over -7% at 10,690, holding just above its 200dma 10,677 (hasn’t breached the 200dma since June 2025). META, IBM, TXN, and TSLA all reported better results overnight while LRCX was mostly in-line, but mixed commentary and guidance led to a broad pullback in the space. Volatility was high today as the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit a high of 20.30 today, up over 21% at one point but below the Friday 10/16 hi above at 22.31. Interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing and improvement related names rallied, along with dividend paying sectors and mortgage related names as Treasury yields tumbled sharply. There is also concern ahead of the mid-term elections in just 2 weeks. Weakness was relegated mostly to Tech (XLK -3.3%) and Communications (XLC -1.42%) while six of eleven S&P sectors rose led by Consumer Staples (XLP up over 3%), Utes, Healthcare, REITs and Financials all up around 1% or better.

U.S. stocks were pressured today (and lately) on concerns: AI debt, the Middle East/oil and European sovereigns. 1) The AI trade is under renewed pressure after mixed megacap signals as Meta announced they are spending more (capex to $135B-$145B vs. prior $130B-$145B), while Tesla is spending less (capex down to $20B from $25B). Nasdaq futures fell over 2.5%. 2) Middle East risk is feeding directly into the macro picture. Brent is around $112/bbl, European NatGas is firmer and fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep the inflation/stagflation risk alive. 3) In Europe, France remains the fixed-income stress point as a stronger INSEE manufacturing survey could not help French bonds, with 10yr yields now around 5.10%. Overall, the risk-off mood boosted havens, with Treasuries, the Yen rising.

Asian markets have been weak as China’s Benchmark stock index, the China Securities Index (CSI) 300, closed in a bear market on Thursday, 20.2% below its 22nd June peak, per Reuters. It ended at 4,036.30, the lowest close since July 2025. The index tracks 300 large companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen. It had already fallen for a record 10 straight weeks through last Friday, per Bloomberg.

Max bearishness for markets as Hedge funds have loaded up on bearish positions in global equities, with the short-to-buy ratio reaching about five times and short leverage climbing to the 99th percentile of readings over the past five years, according to Goldman Sachs. The charts showed net selling in 2026 bottoming near about 4% of total global gross market value three times in April, late July, and October, although the latest reading has partially rebounded to about 3.7%. https://tinyurl.com/2a6zbbab . Separately, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist said clients pulled a net $14.8 billion from single stocks, the largest outflow on record in the firm’s data. At the same time, clients bought $2.8 billion of equity ETFs after selling them the previous week.

• 1) A New York Times report outlined how the U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed plans to renew strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. The Times, citing unnamed U.S. officials, said this would be a “short but intensive” operation.
• 2) Overnight, the State Department announced it was ordering non-emergency government employees to leave Saudi Arabia amid the Houthi attacks on the kingdom.
• 3) Iran’s IRGC threatened US bases in the region if Washington keeps escorting ships through what it calls an “illegal” Hormuz route, per Bloomberg.
• Another day and another brutal selloff in precious metals as December gold fall -$89.60, or -2.16%to settle at $4,060.40 an ounce and silver falls -$2.70, or -4.68%, to settle at $55.01 an ounce. Gold fell to its lowest level in more than two months on Thursday as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, while investors looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

• Restaurant sector: BROS was downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform at RBC Capital and cut tgt to $46 from $70 as intensifying competition and underlying comp sales growth deceleration lowers conviction in comps reaccelerating in 2027, which could limit multiple upside.
• Luxury retail sector: Kering (PPRUY), the Gucci owner Q3 revenue declined 4% as reported, 6% on a comparable basis and luxury goods group’s Q3 2026 revenue stable as reported, down 1% on a comparable basis; said reduced store traffic was the main constraint on Q3 revenue
• Consumer Services: ROL reported Q3 organic growth of +4.4% fell short of Street (+5.7%).

• Construction Material sector: BLDR was downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform at William Blair saying with housing starts likely down 3%-5% in 2027, mortgage rates at 12-month highs, and inflation risks to the upside, the firm lacks confidence that BLDR shares can outperform over the next 12 months.

• Lodging, Casino & Gaming sector: LVS Q3 misses in Macau and Singapore on high end softness, while analysts note absence of key customer visits during the quarter, coupled with the ongoing mix shift in Macau, continues to pressure results; Q3 revenue declined y/y and missed ests.

• Refining sector: VLO reported record quarterly results as adj EPS $23.90, tops consensus $21.18 on revs $46.1B, well above consensus $41.74B as posted its highest-ever quarterly profit, beating Wall Street expectations, as disruptions.
• Utility sector: Punchbowl reported the Trump admin is easing its blockade on wind projects as it looks to motivate Democrats to support the Senate’s bipartisan permitting reform bill. A White House official told me DOD has advanced 2 projects in Maine & SD with more to come (shares of NEE, DUK, D, GEV, TTE, DNNGY, RWEOY, ENGIY among names leveraged to news).

• Bank sector: BBT Q3 adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations ($0.77 vs. est. $0.79), operating earnings held steady/Net interest income improved, but loan growth slowed due to macro uncertainty and higher rates; CATY reported $1.43; core EPS was $1.30 vs. consensus $1.45 as the downside stemmed from a larger provision, reflecting higher loss assumptions given recent charge-offs as well as to cover robust loan growth. Beyond that, NII was better than expected, as the NIM rose 4 bps to 3.52% vs. us at 3.48%. TCBI reported a sizable beat driven by better NII (+$0.24/ sh.), higher fees (+$0.14/sh.), a lower tax rate (+$0.05/sh.), and lower provision (+$0.03), while fee Income reached record levels. FULT reported core EPS of $0.60, above consensus of $0.55, driven by stronger PPNR and lower provisioning.
• Brokers & Exchanges: CME was double upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $367 from $250 saying they favor market structure / exchange investment ideas, and it sees CME well-positioned to outperform in the current environment. NDAQ Q3 EPS beat and revs rose 13% y/y to $1.48B as record net inflows and new product launches contributed to 39% index revenue growth; said strong growth in Capital Access Platforms and Financial Technology drove solutions revenue higher.
• Private Credit/Equity: BX reports $63B in Q3 Inflows, Highlights Strong Performance Across AI and Energy Infrastructure Investments; Flagship investment strategies outperformed comparable public market indices despite a volatile environment.

• Insurance sector: GL reported a Q3 miss compared to consensus, due to higher severity claims at Evry and elevated Medicare supplement claims. Piper noted this ultimately lowered the 2026 EPS guide by about 1.6% at the mid-point. (The new 2026 guidance is $15.35 to $15.65 and is down from $15.55 to $15.95). In mortgage insurance, shares of RDN, ESNT, MTG dipped late day after reports the Trump administration is drafting an executive order to lower mortgage costs through changes to mortgage insurance, refinancing, manufactured housing, and USDA and VA loan rates
• Rental sector: Ryder (R) Q3 adj EPS $4.33 tops est $4.15 on revs $3.4B saying results driven by strategic initiatives and improving freight market conditions; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $14.85-$15.05 from $14.40-$14.80; URI reported 3Q adj EBITDA of $2.33B, above consensus of $2.17B with EBITDA margins of 47.6% 140 bps higher than the Street, primarily reflecting stronger rental gross margins, stronger SG&A leverage, and benefits from stronger mix/updated guide implies stronger revenue and margins in 4Q26 vs. consensus, with the raise in the full-year guide being larger than the 3Q26 beat.

• FRs 3Q26 results were modestly disappointing, with a $0.01 FFO miss and limited development leasing, despite healthy underlying portfolio trends, including 5.6% cash SSNOI growth that moderated less than expected and strong rent spreads. FY26 guidance increased $0.01 at the midpoint, largely from tightening the range, but was underwhelming, with the revised midpoint still $0.01 below consensus.
• GTY reported 3Q26 AFFO in line vs. consensus and raised its FY26 AFFO guidance by 0.2% (reflecting +4.3% y/y AFFO growth). Investment activity accelerated to $297M at an initial cash yield of 6.9% ($128M at 7.4% prior), largely driven by the previously announced $261M Refuel transaction.
• NTST reported 3Q26 AFFO in line with cons. and maintained FY26 AFFO guidance of $1.37-$1.39 (+5.3% y/y) despite raising net investment guidance by 6.7% to at least $800M ($700M-$800M prior). Net investment activity moderated to $205M from $230M, while yields held at 7.4%. Lower expected TSM dilution was offset by dilution from settling 24M forward shares, reducing unsettled forward equity by 56%.

• ARGX reported another strong quarter of commercial execution with Vyvgart revenues coming in 6% ahead of consensus, aided by the seronegative MG launch. Whilst one off transaction costs distorted opex in the quarter resulting in guidance for $4bn opex in 2026, underlying margin expansion continues.
• AVTX shares tumble after ABBV’s Phase 3 lutikizumab data in hidradenitis suppurativa, where HiSCR75 response was a modest 31% vs. 23% placebo, raising concerns over whether abdakibart’s Phase 2 efficacy of 42.9% vs. 25.6% placebo will translate into Phase 3.
• BHVN shares jump as the FDA accepts Biohaven’s resubmitted new drug application for Vyglxia for review. Resubmission includes new positive supportive analyses for treating spinocerebellar ataxia. Last year, the FDA declined to approve the treatment, citing concerns over study design, potential bias, and data limitations.
• BNTX and GILD advance pumitamig in combination with Gilead’s Trodelvy (Sacituzumab govitecan) into the Phase 3 Rosetta Breast-01 trial for first-line triple-negative breast cancer, with BioNTech continuing to sponsor and lead the study while Gilead supplies the Trop2-directed ADC.
• IONS was upgraded to Outperform at BMO Capital and raise its tgt to $66 from $54, as the story now Centers on Tryngolza with pipeline updates behind. Cardio-TTRansform and Lp(a)HORIZON misses have pushed the stock down ~46% YTD, which underappreciates the sHTG opportunity.
• MRNA shares tumbled over -20% following an alleged leak of embargoed Phase 3 data for its personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine (ahead of ESMO conference this weekend), intismeran autogene, developed with MRK, in combination with Keytruda.
• RCUS 14.3M share Spot Secondary priced at $17.50.

• Medical Research sector: MEDP 3Q Rev $716M (inline), EBITDA $172M (vs. $160M cons), Bookings $873M (+7% vs. cons), Book-to-Bill of 1.22x (vs. 1.13x cons). 2026 Guidance Raised: EBITDA now $638M to $652M (vs. $618M to $642M prior).
• Diagnostics and Tools sector: DGX 3Q revs were $3.1B (vs. $3.05B cons) and EPS of $3.00 (vs. $2.87 cons), with mgmt. highlighting continued strength across physician, hospital and consumer channels and productivity gains from automation and AI.; raised guidance for rev growth of 9.3% to 9.7% (vs. 8.3% to 9.2% prior) and EPS of $11.25-$11.35 (vs. $11.05-$11.25 prior).

• Multi Industry sector: HON raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.40-$8.45 after Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.27 topped consensus though Q3 sales missed consensus
• Waste sector: WCN beat 3Q26 top-and bottom-line consensus estimates and raised FY26 revenue/EBITDA guidance above the Street. Organic growth trends showed sequential acceleration, with volumes 70bps better q/q, recycling contributions 50bps better q/q and E&P revs +5.4% q/q, more than offsetting the 30bps q/q decline in yield.
• Industrial sector: ALLE beat Q3 estimates with revenue of $1.1726B vs. $1.137B expected and adjusted EPS of $2.60 vs. $2.50 estimated, and raised FY guidance to adjusted EPS of $9.05-$9.10 vs. $8.98 estimated, with FY organic growth seen at 5%-6%; SNA missed Q3 estimates, posting sales of $1.1837B vs. $1.249B expected and EPS of $4.64 vs. $4.93 estimated, with pretax profit of $319.3M falling short of the $342.1M consensus; CARR will invest more than $600M to expand advanced U.S. manufacturing and engineering capacity, creating 1,500 jobs at a new facility expected to begin operations in 2027.
• Transport sector: in airlines, AAL reported a Q3 EPS loss of (-$0.41) vs. loss of (-$0.17) y/y while forecasts 4Q adj loss per share of (-$1.10–$0.50) and FY 2026 adj loss of (-$1.60–$1.00) as anticipates an ​average fuel price ​of ​approximately $4.70 ​per gallon in Q4, nearly double the price paid in ​the fourth ​quarter of ​2025. In railroads, CSX Q3 revenue rose 12% y/y, beating analyst expectations driven by higher fuel surcharges, volume, and pricing across segments while reported total volume up 5% y/y in Q3; UNP Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus citing 6% volume growth, pricing gains, and operational execution for record results and said expects reported EPS growth of high-single digit, in line with 3-year CAGR target; NSC also reported results this morning in rails. In trucking/freight, KNX q3 EPS $0.83 tops est $0.76, driven primarily by the Truckload segment, consistent with our expectations heading into the quarter/mgmt guided 4Q EPS to $0.78-$0.84

• Aerospace sector: parts maker HXL shares fell after reported in-line Q3 EPS, but sales of $496M missed the $502M consensus and EBITDA $84M missed the $90M est. as Commercial Aerospace sales increased >20% Y/y above views but Defense Space, and other revenue missed expectations, driving EBIT margin of 11.0% vs its 11.8% estimate. CRS shares declined after Q1 sales $798M fell short of consensus $830M while saying is well positioned for continued growth beyond FY27.

• Chemical sector: DOW Q3 earnings beat, with Q3 net sales of $11.267B vs. estimates of $11.266B and adjusted EPS of $0.71 vs. estimates of $0.64 and said remains on track to achieve an upsized $700M in growth and productivity benefits in 2026 and about $2B uplift by the end of next year.

• META also disclosed in a filing $454.52B of non-cancelable contractual commitments as of September 30, including contingent obligations of up to $14.72B to purchase cloud capacity over five years and $45.85B and $121.41B in commitments due in 2026 and 2027 for cloud capacity, infrastructure, and Reality Labs, while headcount fell 15% year-over-year to 66,775.
• Media sector: SPOT posted Q3 EPS of €2.48 on revenue of €4.97B, just shy of the €4.98B estimate, with monthly active users of 788M beating the 758.12M consensus and premium subscribers at 306M; Q4 revs seen €5.2B versus €5.23B estimated, operating income of €820M versus €813.36M

• IT Services & Consulting: IBM solid EPS upside ($2.95 vs. Street $2.86), driven by higher sales and better pre-tax margins. Software +9% FXN vs. Street +7.5%, Infrastructure +5% vs. +1.4%, while Consulting was a touch light. FCF guidance improved, although full-year sales guidance was only reiterated and GMs were soft.
• Communications & Networking: NOK shares fell despite better results as reported a bigger than expected rise in quarterly earnings but only maintained its full-year financial outlook; Q3 Comparable operating profit rose to 605M euros ($680.20 million), from a y/y 448M euros, and above the average estimate of 453M euros; Group net sales to AI and cloud customers grew by 123% y/y and Comparable net sales rose 10% to 5.15 billion euros; optical stocks were broadly lower with AI supply chain still getting hit (AAOI, CIEN, COHR, LITE, GLW).

• Semi equipment sector: LRCX shares tumbled as Q1(Sept) results essentially in line, underscored by +35% sequential system revenue growth, while guidance for Q2 fell short of consensus expectations, with the revenue mid-pt +5% QQ (vs consensus +6% QQ) as supply chain constraints are impacting Lam’s near-term shipment growth (AMAT, KLAC, MKSI, AEIS, ENTG fall in reaction).
• Analog semis: TXN posted sales of $6.06B (above $5.92B estimate), representing a +10.8% q/q increase with all end markets growing sequentially, while guided Q4 above expectations, with revenue midpoint of $6.05B (-0.1% q/q), above consensus $5.73B with strong FCF, with TTM FCF reaching $8.4B (vs. $2.4B in Q325).