Mid-Morning Look: October 26, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Monday, October 26, 2026

U.S. stocks open the week higher, with ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors in the green, led by Consumer Discretionary behind TSLA +6% jump, along with gains in Healthcare (XLV), Financials (XLF), and Industrials (XLI) while Communications (XLC) is the lone decliner. Lots of big stories today ahead of potential key market catalysts this week as Anthropic files for its IPO today under the symbol “ANT” (expected IPO mid-November), Brazil markets/tocks tumble on election news, META unveils plans to raise roughly $95B, including a $35B stock offering and a $60B at-the-market program, to fund its AI buildout and AI-infrastructure; RRC/EQT merge in energy sector, and “neocloud” shares are falling on Musk comments while Tesla and some mega-cap names rebound.

A very busy week ahead with about a third of the companies in the S&P 500 report quarterly results are expected including mega caps AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, BA among the biggest names, along with several in energy and tech. The week overall brings earnings, the Fed’s (FOMC) October 28 decision, and Thursday’s GDP/PCE releases. Watch whether earnings improve investor confidence in AI monetization and cash flow, or deepen worries about debt-funded capex. Overnight Brazilian markets/stocks tumble after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term in Sunday’s presidential runoff, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro and overturning market expectations of a shift toward more conservative economic policies.

Energy-cost beneficiaries (airlines, certain chemicals/transports) rise as crude oil retreats from 5-month highs; selected mega-cap technology and consumer discretionary (TSLA leading the premarket growth rebound); relative weakness on debt-dependent AI infrastructure/hosting (CRWV, NBIS, IREN, APLD), after Elon Musk warned on X that debt markets have shut off funding for AI data center operators lacking independent revenue. Brazil-related financials and energy ADRs (XP, PBR, EWZ) on election news. Another round of diplomatic efforts to prevent tensions in the Middle East from escalating injected a fresh dose of optimism into the energy markets as well.

Treasury yields tick higher to start Fed week. Markets price in 91% odds of an interest rate hold Wednesday, according to CME. Hikes are expected to resume in December. Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due Thursday. The Treasury is set to auction $69 billion in two-year notes at 1 p.m. ET, followed by a $70 billion five-year tender tomorrow and $44 billion in seven-year notes Thursday. The 10-year yield is at 4.995%, up from 4.987% Friday.

• Brazilian stocks plunge (MELI, EWZ, NU, PAGS, PBR, XP, VALE, STNE, ITUB, BBDafter President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term in Sunday’s presidential runoff, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro and overturning market expectations of a shift toward more conservative economic policies. Shares of oil major names like PBR tumbled, while banking stocks including ITUB and BBD came under heavy selling pressure. The selloff followed a rally in Brazilian assets after Bolsonaro unexpectedly led the first round of voting earlier this month.
• Biopharma/Oncology sector: ESMO and ASN Kidney Week data lift the group, with AMGN and AZN after Imdelltra plus Imfinzi cut the risk of death 58% in first-line small-cell lung cancer; JNJ on Phase 3 PROTEUS data showing apalutamide cut disease recurrence risk 62% in high-risk prostate cancer; GMAB and CORT rising also higher on favorable readouts, while MRNA reverses higher following an over 18% slide across the prior two sessions.
• Casinos & Gaming sector: Stifel previewed the sector saying heading into earnings, they are now forecasting Q3 Adj. EBITDA misses for FLUT, DKNG, CDRO, & SRAD, and mostly inline for RSI, GENI. While ‘core’ OSB fundamentals appear to be improving early-NFL, unfavorable sport outcomes dragged on hold again, legal uncertainty & ongoing predictions investment is weighing on sentiment for DKNG, and iCasino TAM deceleration has continued into September contrasting narrative coming out of G2E.

• HHH +5%;  after named to replace ACA in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, October 28. S&P 500 constituent CRH has acquired Arcosa in a deal that closed today, October 23.
• ROST +3%; was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS (tgt to $315 from $239) as believes the company’s store sales growth momentum can persist beyond this year. UBS believes Ross’ new CEO’s strategies are helping it close its wider-than-realized store productivity gap versus TJX.
• RRC +14%; as EQT said it would acquire RRC in an all-stock deal valued at more than $50 billion, creating what the companies called the largest vertically integrated natural gas producer in the United States. Under the terms of the deal, Range shareholders will receive 0.987 shares of EQT stock for each share held. EQT shareholders will own about 73% of the combined company.
• SGRY +46%; after HealthSpan Partners, a supporting organization of not-for-profit healthcare system Bon Secours Mercy Health, will take Surgery Partners private for about $5.7 billion, valuing shares at $23.50 per share, a 49% premium(confirmed a Financial Times report this weekend).
• TSLA +6%; was upgraded to Overweight at Barclays and raised tgt to $450 from $370 citing M&A opportunity with SPCX, stronger core business outlook, and signs of Robotaxi inflection.
• XNCR +22%; after presenting Phase 1 Dose Selection Data for XmAb819. 400 mcg/kg chosen as proposed IV RP3D based on 45.5% cORR, 55% uORR and 82% 6-month PFS Kaplan-Meier estimate. Xencor plans to discuss a potential accelerated approval pathway with the FDA in key ccRCC patient subgroups in 1H2027.

• CRWV ; Neocloud/data center stocks such as NBIS, CRWV, HUT, IREN, CIFR, WULF and others were weak overnight after Elon Musk warned on X that debt markets have shut off funding for AI data center operators lacking independent revenue, predicting ‘guppy-level death and consolidation’ among more than 200 neoclouds (some shares have been bouncing since).
• EWZ -23% as Brazilian stocks tumble following elections; shares of MELI, NU, PAGS, PBR, XP, VALE, ITUB, BBD among US listed Brazilian stocks that tumbled after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a fourth term on Sunday. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro who had won the first round of election earlier this month, refuses to concede.
• FICO  -6%; following Friday night headlines that FICO Holds Mortgage Score Pricing at $10 for Lenders Enrolled in Preferred Program. Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight citing the news that FICO will hold its price at $10 for lenders enrolled in its Preferred Program in exchange for a commitment to pull FICO 100% of the time
• VZ -2%; posted mixed Q3 results as EPS $1.31 tops $1.27 while revs rose 1.5% y/y to $34.3B vs. est. $34.85B driven by mobility and broadband growth; raises 2026 postpaid phone net adds guidance to 1.1 mln-1.2 mln, from 750,000-1.0 mln while lifts 2026 adjusted EPS outlook. also announces another big deal, this time with AMZN Amazon Web Services, to support the infrastructure needed for agentic and generative AI workloads.
• XYZ -2%; was downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $80 from $90 citing rising credit risks, competition and reinvestment needs; says longer-duration Cash App Borrow loans could slow near-term originations against tougher comps and lift credit losses.