Market Review: November 04, 2026

Closing Recap

Wednesday, November 04, 2026

U.S. stocks surged in remarkable fashion as investors bet a divided Washington after the Democrats’ midterm sweep of the Senate and the House could limit sharp policy shifts, though data center stocks were under pressure as concerns over tighter AI regulation weighed heavily on semis and data centers. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) both traded at record highs today as large cap tech (Mag 7) were among the biggest gainers on the day, massive boosts for AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META. Energy stocks tumbled with oil falling over 8% on hopes a change in Congress can end the war with Iran; beneficial for several sectors as airlines, cruise stocks, leisure and lodging and retailers were among the biggest moves to the upside on Wednesday. Consumer goods companies have struggled with higher costs of packaging and transport as a fallout from the US war in Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher. NYSE market breadth was more than 3:1 advancers leading decliners with Discretionary (XLY) up over 4.26%, Communications (XLC) up 3.5% the biggest winners while Financials (XLF), Healthcare (XLV) and Consumer Staples (XLP) all making new all-time highs in a very broad based market rally. Overall it feels like this market has become a runaway train…run away from whatever isn’t working, find a new narrative, and pile aboard whatever is, as markets constantly rotate keeping broader averages higher.

Bottom line: story of the day was Democrats retaking the House and Senate, while victories in key governor races could reshape the AI data center buildout. Early losers on the mid-term election on tech/AI for now seems to be semis (SOX) as less buildout = less demand for chips although the debate is how much of this restrictive environment is reflected in multiples already; SPCX tumbles given Elon Musk had focused the buildout of DCs and Terafab in Texas although some will say this makes orbital compute more likely. Slower permitting generally bad for Data Cener/HPC miners and Neoclouds. The hyperscalers saw the biggest moves (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT) on thought slowing spending can help ease debt fears. In other sectors, solar stocks, healthcare were among outperformers on the Democrats taking control of Congress, while defense stocks, crypto, and AI space underperformed.

Interesting stats: @bespokeinvest noted on X. “The Dow’s 3% gain today would be its best since April 9th, 2025, when it gained 7.9%. 4/9/25 was the day President Trump announced the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs that were announced a few days prior.” Also, @bespokeinvest noted on X, “There have only been two other days that the Nasdaq was up 1%+ and the Philadelphia SOX was down more than it is today (-4.0%) 0 3/30/01 (-4.4%) and 7/22/08 (-4.5%).”

• S&P Global October final services PMI at 56.1 and S&P Global October final composite PMI at 55.9.
• ISM report on U.S. non-manufacturing sector shows PMI 54.5 in October (consensus 54.8) vs 54.9 in September; business activity index 53.8 in October vs 56.5 in September; ISM non-manufacturing new orders index 55.9 in October vs 59.8 in September; employment index 51.4 in October vs 50.1 in September and prices paid index 73.0 in October vs 74.0 in September.
• U.S. Sept trade deficit $105.0B (consensus $108.0B) vs Aug deficit $105.7B (prev $105.6B); U.S. Sept goods deficit $135.91B, services surplus $30.87B. Sept exports +1.9% vs Aug +1.6%, imports +1.2% vs Aug +4.4%. Sept exports $321.51B vs Aug $315.67B, imports $426.56B vs Aug $421.40B.

• Big day and rebound for precious metals as the US dollar sunk on results of midterm elections as December gold jumped +$132.60, or +3.37%, to settle at $4,073.00 an ounce while silver rises +$2.53, or +5.08%, to finish at $52.28 an ounce.

• The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 6.2 basis points to 4.89% after earlier rising to 4.9642%. The yield on the 30-year bond fell 3.4 basis points to 5.29% after earlier hitting 5.3448%, which was its highest level since October 29.

• Food & Beverage sector: STZ was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America saying near-term estimates are unchanged, but it now believes Democratic control of Congress reduces the risk of further tightening in the immigration backdrop, which has been a key headwind to Constellation’s beer business. KHC said it would divest its North American coffee business in a deal that values the unit at $650 million.
• Housing retailers: Wayfair (W) shares rose after Q3 revenue, profit tops estimates on more customers, orders; attributes growth to strong U.S. order volume and higher active customers; said Q3 revenue growth was driven by a 12% increase in orders delivered and a 4.7% rise in active customers; said double-digit U.S. revenue growth reflected share gains in a flat category.
• Retailers: were among the biggest winners today amid the sharp drop in oil prices, as consumer goods companies have struggled with higher costs of packaging and transport as a fallout from the US war in Iran, which has pushed oil prices higher (shares of NKE, LULU, MAT, M, GAP, DECK, ANF and many others posted big returns today).
• Specialty retail: HELE shares rose after M&A headlines as the confirmed that its Board of Directors has unanimously rejected an unsolicited, non-binding proposal to acquire Helen of Troy for $37.00 per share in cash from Empower Brands Holdings Group, LLC, which is owned by Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB) and Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

• Auto sector: Ford (F) total U.S. vehicles sales 174,123 units in October, and total U.S. electrified vehicles sales 15,173 units in October, down 31.7%. In auto dealers: AN and GPI were downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and to underweight from Neutral respectively at JP Morgan saying expects unfavorable estimate revisions in the near-to-medium term for Group 1 amid a challenging parts and service backdrop. Auto parts, MOD shares fell as reported Q2 EPS below consensus on better revs, but shares fall as Keybanc noted while topline and order strength is well appreciated and continues unabated, Modine continues to struggle with multiple headwinds on margin.
• Trave/lodging sector: the sector among biggest beneficiaries today amid the plunge in oil prices with airlines AAL, DAL, LUV, JBLU, ALK, UAL all surging on the day; BKNG Q326 results beat expectations and came in at the high end of guidance, as resilient travel demand offset some moderation late in the period; Gross Bookings/Adj. Revenue/Adj. EBITDA were 4%/3%/3% ahead of consensus. 4Q26E guidance, however, was conservative and below expectations, although full-year guidance remained intact (EXPE repots after the bell).

• Energy stocks stumbled (APA, COP, CVX, BKR, HAL, SLB, OXY, XOM) as oil prices fall for a 4^th day, down over -15% during that stretch on Iran peace talks hopes. Election results for midterm also weighing as Democrats capture control of the US Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republicans in the midterm elections, denting the risk premium for a further escalation of the ongoing war with Iran. Refiners DINO, DK, VLO, MPC, PBF, PSX among hardest hit in energy.

• Credit card issuers SYF, COF, BFH declined after Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, scoring stunning wins in Republican strongholds for the first time in generations. TD Cowen says victory raises potential for increased traction on some areas where the President and progressive Democrats share common ground such as potential cap on credit card interest rates. Trump earlier this year called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, only for the issue to fade away quickly. Trump and Sen. Warren agree on capping interest rates.

• DEI reported 3Q26 FFO that beat cons. (+$0.01) and mgmt. affirmed FY26 FFO guidance, which is in line with consensus. Fundamentals were mixed, with cash SSNOI declining to -3.1% and cash rent spreads stable at -9.2%, though leasing was strong at 997ksf (959ksf prior).Occupancy increased 110bps q/q to 76.7%, while the leased rate rose 10bps to 80.4%.
• DRH Q3 Adj. EBITDA beat consensus by ~5% and Adj. FFO was slightly above the Street’s expectation. Management increased 2026 Adj. EBITDA/FFO guidance to account for better 3Q results and better 4Q outlook, but implied 4Q guidance fell short of consensus. RevPAR growth increased ~7% y/y in 3Q, contributing to ~13% hotel EBITDA growth.
• INN reported a 3Q Adj. EBITDA/FFO beat, while management increased ’26 guidance by ~3%/~6%. The revised outlook is in line to slightly above the Street. RevPAR growth exceeded 7% y/y in 3Q, primarily driven by ADR growth, resulting in continued margin expansion and mid-teens hotel EBITDA growth. RevPAR outperformance drove a 150 bps increase in growth guidance.
• LTC cFFO beat consensus, but management reaffirmed ’26 cFFO guidance, and implied 4Q guidance is below the Street’s expectation. Management decreased pro forma SHOP NOI growth for 27 of 46 SHOP assets (as of 9/30) by ~100 bps to 13%, as last quarter’s RevPOR vs. occupancy growth trade-off fell short of projections prior.

• KURA and SNDX shares fell after JNJ’s ASH abstract raises competitive pressure. JNJ’s bleximenib, seen as a "stronger-than-anticipated competitor" and a "credible threat" to Kura’s Komzifti in relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML), Leerink Partners said. Komzifti won FDA approval last year to treat relapsed/refractory NPM1-mutant AML.
• NRIX shares tumbled after SNY announced it has discontinued development of SAR448272, an oral STAT6 degrader. Sanofi recently initiated the Phase I study of SAR448272, triggering a $10M milestone payment to Nurix in August. Nurix did not disclose the rationale for the discontinuation.
• NVO reported 3Q26 results, with reported revenue +8%/DKK5.9bn vs company consensus (includes c.DKK2bn in positive GTN adjustments), and adjusted operating profit +12%/DKK3.3bn vs company consensus. By product, Wegovy pill revenue was +17%/DKK779m above company consensus. The results lifted shares as well as rival obesity drug maker LLY.

• Healthcare Services: CVS confirms plan to split into two publicly traded companies, separating its ~9,000 retail pharmacies from Aetna & Caremark; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to ‘at least’ $8.20 from $7.90-$8.10 after Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus.
• Ortho sector: SNN cut its full-year revenue and profit forecast while also confirmed that talks about a potential merger with JNJ’s Orthopaedics unit have ended; the cut follows weaker-than-expected Q3 growth in its biggest orthopedics business; ZBH raises annual adjusted profit forecast to $8.50-$8.60 per share from prior forecast of $8.47-$8.59 after posted a beat on Q3 top and bottom line.

• Industrials sector: MMM announced it would commit nearly $7.35B over nine years to settle PFAS "forever chemicals"-related personal-injury claims saying the settlement addresses about 99% of current personal-injury claims inside and outside the AFFF multi-district litigation (also announced a $6B share buyback). EMR posted Q4 EPS and sales above consensus but guided Q1 below and said sees FY2027 adj EPS of ~$7.25, below analysts’ avg. est. of $7.27, but higher FCF views. Heavy duty trucking (CMI, PCAR) data as monthly Class 8 Oct Orders, reported at 13.5K, which compares to Sept 18.7K and the Aug Class 8 orders of 18.2K and July’s Class 8 actual orders of 22,430
• Defense sector: saw large decline in large cap defense names like GD, LHX, LMT, NOC and RTX as well as consulting and gov’t IT service names CACI, LDOS, PSN and SAIC were among the most prominent losers this morning, as investors weigh the potential impact of Democrats’ sweeping gains in the midterm elections.
• Aerospace sector: TSLA and SPCX shares fell after Democrats sweep Congress in US midterm elections and fears they will target his companies. Democrats scored a historic breakthrough in Republican stronghold Texas, home to both companies. The Republican loss in Texas threatens to weaken Musk’s political influence in his adopted home state, where he has expanded his business interests and cultivated ties with GOP leaders. A Democratic shift could complicate plans, particularly amid Democratic calls for tighter data-centre regulation and an end to tax incentives.

• Paper & Packaging sector: the two leading global Aluminum can producer, BALL and CCK were both downgraded at JPMorgan to Neutral from Overweight based on valuation. Ball is higher by 19% year to date versus Crown up 17% and the S&P Index up 11%.
• Precious metals and gold miners rise with spot gold surging around 3%, bolstered by a weaker US dollar after Democrats seize control of both the Senate and House in US midterm elections. Mining stocks suck as AEM, NEM, GOLD, AU and silver miners, B, CDE, WPM posted big gains. A sweeping victory by Democrats in the US midterm elections sent the dollar to a more than one-month low

• CIFR and CLSK shares among biggest decliners as both were downgraded to MP from Outperform at KBW this morning following Gina Hinojosa’s win as Texas Governor as the firm now expects greater regulatory uncertainty to weigh on data center lease timing and the probability of reaching definitive agreements across the companies’ Texas-heavy pipelines.
• HUT Q3 Net Income $189.494M and revs $71.071M vs. est. $78M (and down from $83.51M y/y) while adj EBITDA rose to $33.03M during Q3 from $30.48M in the same period a year ago.
• RIOT shares jumped as executed a 15-year, 910 critical IT MW triple-net powered land lease with a leading Frontier AI Lab at Corsicana, representing approximately $28B in total contract value and approximately $1.8B in average annual rent over the initial term and also posted Q3 revs rose 1% y/y to $181.4M vs. est. $160.75M. Riot has now leased 1,151 MW of critical IT capacity, representing approximately $38 billion of long-term contracted revenue
• Cantor said from a stock perspective, believes this outcome likely materially increases the probability that the next lease is signed outside of Texas. Cantor would point to WULF (1 GW Muskie site), HUT (potentially 1 GW Riverbend expansion), and KEEL (multiple sites in PA) as being relative winners from this midterm result. Cantor sees RIOT being more insulated amongst the Texas names given it is not dependent upon ERCOT/ TCEQ, while CIFR’s largely ERCOT-dependent catalyst path has been pushed out the most. Cantor is still optimistic that conditional base load projects move forward, but it will not have full clarity on this until December.
• Hyperscalers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META saw big gains this morning while the data center names fall on potential slowdown of building due to midterm election results. Note slowing the buildout could actually be very good for the stocks of well-entrenched companies. META launched its debut euro bond offering Wednesday with the aim of seeking to raise more than $9 billion. META is aiming to raise 8.25 billion euros ($9.23 billion) through the sale of four-year, six-year, eight-year, 12-year, 18-year and 38-year euro bonds. The six-part offering follows the Facebook and Instagram owner’s $15 billion, five-part dollar bond issuance on Tuesday.

• Comm & Networking sector: ANET rises as Q3 revenue, operating margin, and EPS all beat, and fourth-quarter guidance was also well above consensus. Fervent demand for networking switches. Arista is also pushing into "scale-up" networking within server rack.

• AMD delivered a Q3 beat-and-raise and materially stronger 2027 framework. Q3 revenue of $13.37B (+45% Y/y, +16% q/q) came in above the high end of guidance on better EPS and adj-GM of 56% (+190bps Y/y) and adj-OM of 29% (+510bps Y/y). Data Center revenue of $8.5B (+97% Y/y) reached 64% of revenue, and Q4 is guided to ~$17.0B (+66% Y/y, +27% q/q) on ~50% sequential Data Center growth, with Data Center Ai surpassing server for the first time. Now expects 2027 revenue to grow more than 80%, with server roughly doubling and D.C. Ai more than doubling.
• QCOM and SPCX announced a collaboration that will see the chipmaker power Starlink Mobile’s nationwide terrestrial 5G network in the U.S. Qualcomm will provide its Dragonwing QRU100 radio units, Dragonwing QDU100 baseband units, and Layer 1
• SMCI Q1 results were above pre-announced levels, and the FY27 revenue outlook was raised to $72B-$82B, above expectations.
• SWKS posted solid FQ4 results, but shares fell as guided FQ1 (Dec) below. Much of the weakness, particularly in the guidance, was attributed to QRVO’s ACG revs related to Samsung smartphones in the China market. Conversely, iPhone demand was characterized as stable, while Broad Markets, not Diversified Growth Markets (DGM), continues to see stable growth.