Market Review: November 05, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, November 05, 2026

No doubt, it was an ugly day. US equity futures were split overnight with S&P futures up small but Nasdaq futures fading on the heels of yesterday’s bounce. But that was early pre-mkt. It was downhill from there and both were deep in the red shortly after the open. Data center build-out concerns remain the big boogeyman following Tuesday’s election results and the ripple effect is broad. Meanwhile, earnings continue to be mixed with both big beats and big misses, but generally not bad with an 84% beat rate in the S&P 500 vs 86% last year and an average beat of 23% vs 21% last year. Average year/year earnings growth also have outpaced last year at 30% vs 20% with median growth of 14% vs 10%. We have hit the 400 mark in S&P names but plenty of big players remain, so there is much yet to digest.

In sentiment today, the daily Fear & Greed Index registered Fear at 27/100 versus last week’s 30 (also Fear), and a bit below last month’s 43 (Fear) reading. Separately, today’s bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey dipped to -14.7% vs -3.6% last week. Bulls fell to 34.1% from 37.8% while Bears rose to 48.4% from 41.4%.

By mid-morning, breadth favored decliners by 3:1 as small caps outperformed with IWM (-2.74%) versus SPY (-3.16%) and QQQ (-5.47%). SPY breadth favored decliners by 10:7 while QQQ breadth favored decliners by 2:1. Clearly concentration at the top of the indices works both ways. Sector performance also was tilted negative but still with 4 sectors gaining versus 7 declining. Consumer Staples (+1.20%), Energy (+0.96%) and Utilities (+0.25%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Industrials (-2.52%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.84%) and Technology (-6.53%) led the underperformers.

Heading into the final hour of trading, markets were looking generally hideous. Breadth was about 5:1 decliners over advancers and QQQ breadth was even worse at 7:1. Sector performance had rolled with all 11 in the red. Perhaps this was capitulation day, and hopes are that we can recover from here as the blood spilled in the AI space The VIX just surged 60% in its biggest one-day jump since 2024 to above 27, while the Nasdaq 100 tumbled -6% and the PHLX semi index (SOX) fell around -11%, its worst day since March 2020. Very few places to hide though bonds and precious metals were higher. Brent crude futures settled up almost 4% after tumbling more than 8% on Wednesday. The monthly jobs report is tomorrow morning, but little attention at this point.

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 189,000 from 195,000 prior week and matched the lowest level of claims in 57-years, and below consensus 196,000; the 4-week moving average fell to 194,750 from 197,000 prior week (previous 196,750); continued claims climbed to 1.718M Oct 24 week (con. 1.710M) from 1.695M prior week (prev 1.701M).
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that layoff plans in October fell to the lowest level since 2023 as companies turned their attention to retaining existing employees and adding seasonal help ahead of the holidays. US employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, up slightly from September but down 71% from a year earlier.

• WTI crude futures bounced back a bit overnight after yesterday’s sell-off with no new Iran/US negotiation news. There were, however, stories of two new oil tankers colliding with mines and catching fire in the “insecure” area east of the Strait of Hormuz. December WTI crude settled +$2.40/bbl, or +2.72%, at $90.52.

• Apparel & Footwear retail: NKE was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Truist with $29 PT noting shares are up 19% over the past ~month (vs S&P flat), which Truist believes reflects positive sector rotations rather than an improvement in underlying fundamentals.
• Discount retail sector: DLTR downgraded to hold from Buy at Loop Capital based on current valuation levels as opposed to a more bearish view of the company’s fundamentals. Loop believes its bullish fundamental outlook on Dollar Tree is largely priced in at current levels and thinks OLLI provides a more compelling long opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the deep discount.
• Online retail: MELI shares fell as the company delivered strong GMV and TPV growth exceeding 30% and 50% once again in 3Q. However, OI margin compressed Q/Q by 40bps due to incremental investments in logistics and marketing, despite nice leverage in R&D.
• Food & Beverages sector: CELH Q3 EPS of $0.41 beating expectations of $0.35 and Q3 revenue of $847.2M beating expectations of $800M; TAP Q3 net sales, adj EPS miss estimates now sees 2026 net sales declining 1% to 2%, on constant currency, compared with prior view of 1% to -1% range and revises FY underlying EPS decline view to 16%-19% from 11%-15% seen earlier while saying global beer volume trend softness of Q2, Q3 to persist in Q4; DEO posts unexpected sales rise as sales declines at North American unit slow; posted organic net sales growth of 0.6% for the three months ended September 30, compared with a 0.4% decline expected while Organic net sales declined 3.6% in North America, but that was less than the 6.7% drop expected by analysts.
• Restaurant sector: CAVA shares fell as delivered comp sales of +3.1% (below est. +3.3%), ~flat traffic, and adj. EBITDA of $42M (below ests $44M) as Q3 trends were pressured from food safety concerns (~150 bps impact) and macro (higher gas prices); BROS shares fell as Q3 results were generally in line with expectations, including system wide SSS of +4.4%, but revised 2026 guidance—which pointed to the low end of prior SSS guidance, and EBITDA below the prior range—and concerns of moderating traffic weighed on shares; PZZA and SHAK also reported quarterly results; WEN said it had rejected a $1.4B take-private offer from activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management and its partners (Trian and related parties own a 16.3% stake).

• Mortgage, housing services: ZG shares tumbled after Q3 rev rose 7% y/y to $724M, missing the $754M consensus citing "one of the toughest housing markets in a generation", while adj Ebitda of $182M missed $193.7M estimate and said traffic to its apps and sites fell -3% to 215M average monthly unique users while visits during qtr fell 5% to 2.3B

• Online travel: after stellar day post BKNG results and guidance and oil prices tumbling helping support the sector, shares of EXPE and TRIP decline today following earnings results. EXPE reported strong Q3 results with gross bookings coming in 4% above consensus and EBITDA coming in 9% ahead of consensus, although moderating travel demand and higher investments weighed on its 4Q outlook which weighed on shares; TRIP announces management departures and transition plan as Matt Goldberg to depart as President, CEO, and board member, while Q3 revenue falls 11% to $436.4M, below est. of $458.4M on EPS miss ($0.37 misses est. of $0.44).

• Utility sector: ES reported an in-line quarter and modestly raised FY26 guidance, while maintaining its capital plan with potential upside; NWE reported 3Q26 results below expectations while reaffirming both its NT and LT guidance.
• Solar sector: RUN reported above consensus revenue but reduced FY26 guidance with Aggregate Subscriber Value lowered to ~$4.6B and Cash Generation reduced to ~$200M. 3Q Aggregate Subscriber Value increased to $1.27B, while record 75% storage attach rates, improved pricing, and higher ITC realization drove Upfront Net Subscriber Value to $3,718 per subscriber; FSLR was upgraded First Solar to Outperform at Willaim Blair citing the Democrats sweeping the midterm elections saying this will unlock support at a local level for more utility-scale solar procurement.
• Aerospace & Defense: JOBY raised its FY26 revenue guidance to $135M-140M (from prior $115M-125M), after reporting Q3 revenue of $55.1M, beating our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of $36.7M/$40.0M, driven mostly by Blade Air Mobility revenue (now a wholly owned subsidiary of Joby).

• FinTech sector: SEZL shares surge after better earnings results and raises FY26 revenue growth forecast to 42.5% from prior 35% while guides FY adj EPS of $5.45-$5.50 from $5.25 seen earlier
• Financial services: FICO was downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform at RBC after earnings and noted the uncertainty with the mortgage score pricing transition, mortgage inquiry headwinds due to elevated rates and affordability constraints, potential market share losses to VantageScore. LZ was double downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank America and cut PT to $6 from $9 noting LegalZoom reported revenue of $195.1M vs Street at $193.6M, with Formations at 110k (below Street at 113k) due to Ai still pressuring top-of-funnel formations.

• MSFT has decided not to expand an existing agreement with British Ai Cloud provider Nscale to Rent additional Computing capacity at a Texas data center, according to Media reports. The potential extension would have been worth tens of billions of dollars to Nscale, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

• Optical & Photonics sector: it’s been a busy week for the group with the MRVL acquisition announcement of LITE earlier in week and lots of earnings in the space, while overnight COHR the latest as they reported Q1 revenue/EPS of $2.37B/$2.09 vs est. of $2.31B/$1.99, with gross margin of 40.6% broadly in line; 2Q midpoint of $2.65B/$2.38 sits ~4%/~8% above consensus.
• Robotics sector: China has blocked Softbank’s (SFTBY) $5.4B acquisition of ABB’s Robotics unit, a sting for the giant global tech investor that comes as Beijing is clamping down on exports of high-value technology to foreign rivals. ABB said Thursday that Softbank told it about the decision by a Chinese government Office that reviews foreign investment.
• Social media/Internet sector: SNAP Q3 revenue grew 14% Y/Y to $1.72B, led by 84% growth in other revenue while ad growth slowed to 4% from 9% in 2Q, as direct response strength was offset by softer upper-funnel brand ads. 4Q guidance implies modest acceleration to ~15% growth at the midpoint on easier comps before getting more difficult in 1H27.
• Hardware & Component sector: SONY shares rose raised its full-year earnings forecast after reporting a 44% increase in Q2 net profit; Game & Network Services division reported an 83% jump in operating profit to 220.1B Yen; Pictures operating profit surged to 92.6B Yen from 13.9B Yen; raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 150B Yen to 1.87 trillion Yen.
• Software sector: HUBS shares fall after results beat but guidance was weak as the company effectively guided Q4 CC growth down to 12% from 14% previously and said now expects NRR to decline 2 pts Y/y in 2026 to ~101%, and NNARR will be down for the full year; KVYO delivered a solid beat-and-raise quarter on strong momentum in multi-product selling, up-market expansion, traction in its AI products, and the value of the Klaviyo Data Platform and rev growth of 25% y/y beat consensus by 250bps; FIG shares fell as continues to report Stellar top-line growth of +42.8% Y/y, though the Q3 beat magnitude of 4.7% was slightly lighter as the benefits from pricing and Figma Make Ai credit monetization wane, while gross margins miss

• ARM posted solid FQ2 results and FQ3 guidance, which slightly exceeded expectations on revs/EPS, but Q2 royalties missed expectations as smartphone royalties (flat Y/y) remain weak and unable to offset strong growth in Data Center (doubled Y/y) and Physical Ai (+50% Y/y).
• CRUS posted solid Q2 results and guided Q3 lower, reflecting iPhone timing/pull-forward into FQ2 vs weaker demand. AAPL content outlook remains encouraging, but PCs continue to deteriorate as memory shortages pressure C26/C27 units and OEMs push out higher-content models.
• MKSI a better-than-expected beat, with growth led by Semis and E&P (note Specialty Industrial most above guide, followed by E&P, then Semis). The 4Q revenue guide of $1.49B at the midpoint was above and GMs were guided to 47.5% (vs. cons. 47.3%).
• QCOM posted solid 4Q results and provided mixed 1Q guidance which hit shares, as revs were slightly above, while EPS was slightly below due to lower GM. This was due to higher costs and the initial ramp of DC revs ($650M), which is dilutive. Q127 guidance was mixed once again ($10.8B/$2.25 vs Street $10.55B/$2.31) with higher revenues offset by weaker margins.