Morning Preview: June 18, 2026

Early Look

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Just 12 hours after stock markets tumbled on rising interest rate hike expectations given the “hawkish” FOMC meeting on Wednesday, boosting Treasury yields across the board, U.S. futures are surging as Nasdaq futures +1.6% or 480 points to 30,480, erasing all of yesterday’s declines and S&P futures are up near 1%. The signing of the interim US-Iran peace deal is overshadowing concerns about rising interest rates following yesterday’s FOMC meeting commentary. The Fed’s rate-setting stance skewed hawkish, the first meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh, pressuring US equities as the Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 1.3%. The 2-Year Treasury yield spiked 16.9 bps Wednesday to end the day at 4.21% as the bond market is now pricing in 2 rate hikes this year (at the start of the year it was pricing in 2 rate cuts). The yen falls to its lowest levels since 2024 against the US dollar, raising Japanese BoJ intervention, just a few days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to highest levels in decades.

However, stock futures jump as President Trump and his Iranian counterpart on Wednesday signed the memo outlining their countries’ peace agreement, a move previously expected on Friday. The deal went into effect on Thursday, potentially speeding up the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. Negotiations on more protracted issues, including Tehran’s nuclear program, are expected to take place over the next 60 days. Oil prices dropped over 2% on the news, with Brent crude futures sinking below $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate falling toward $74 a barrel.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Wednesday after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected policy message and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central bank’s inflation-fighting stance. Treasury yields surged, the dollar rallied, and rate-cut hopes were pushed further into the future. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged again to another all-time highs, rising 1,151 points or 1.65% to 71,053, the Shanghai Index fell -17 points to 4,090, the Hang Seng Index declined -387 points to 23,924, and the Kospi closed at an all-time high rising around 3%. In Europe, the German DAX is up 22 points to 24,957, while the FTSE 100 is down -105 points to 10,402. Today will be the last day of trading for Wall Street stock markets, which will close on Friday to observe the Juneteenth holiday.

@Bluekurtic noted on X, “On Kevin Warsh ‘s first FOMC day as Fed Chair, S&P 500 fell 1.2%, extending the streak to four negative first fed meeting days for new Chairs. It marks only the third 1%+ decline on a first fed meeting day, and the largest drop since Greenspan in 1987.”

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -506.51 points, or 0.59%, to 51,493.16
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -354.69 points, or 1.34%, to 26,021.66
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -21.20 points, or 0.72% to 2,918.01

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.795M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for June…est. 10.0
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index Change M/M for May…est. +0.1%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows for April

• Earnings After the Close: None

• The Swiss National Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, saying its medium-term price outlook had barely changed despite a recent uptick in inflation stoked by higher fuel costs arising from the Iran war.

• Smith & Wesson (SWBI) Q4 EPS $0.36 and sales rose 26.7% y/y to $178.4M; Q4 Gross margin was 29.8% compared with 28.8% in the comparable quarter last year; handgun units >80% of shipments, sporting goods channel +23.2% YoY, new products 37.5% of revenue; said expects firearm industry demand in fiscal 2027 to be slightly higher than fiscal 2026.

• Enphase (ENPH) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight and raise tgt to $51 from $30 citing the company’s emerging solid-state transformer data center opportunity for the upgrade, while Enphase continues to face residential solar headwinds in the near-term.
• HawkEye 360’s (HAWK) Cluster 14 satellites have reached Full Operational Capacity, or FOC, adding new collection capability to the company’s space-based signals intelligence constellation.
• Nucor (NUE) guides Q2 adj EPS $4.5-$4.6 per diluted share vs. est. $4.27 and earnings to increase across all segments versus Q1; steel mills segment to benefit from $130M cash refunds in Q2 2026; Q2 2026 guidance includes $61M non-cash benefit from Helion investment
• Safe Bulkers (SB) Q1 26 Rev $74.4Mm vs. est. $65.5Mm (beat); adj EPS $0.18 vs est $0.11; adj EBITDA $40.7Mm vs est $34.15Mm; TCE $17,095/day; div $0.06/share common (payable July 16)

• Large U.S. banks on Thursday will formally pitch the central bank on tweaks to a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at reducing the funds they must set aside to absorb potential losses, as the central bank enters the last leg of a marathon overhaul of U.S. capital rules.

• Kardigan (KARD) 25M share IPO priced at $16.00 as the deal size was increased to 25.0M from 23.3M shares and priced at high end of $14.00-$16.00 range.
• Legend Biotech (LEGN) 7.7M share Spot Secondary priced at $29.35.
• Pfizer (PFE) said that finance chief Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on August 15 to take a role in the consumer goods industry. Pfizer named Cecile Guegan, senior vice president of finance for its global biopharmaceutical business, as interim CFO, effective August 16.

• Apple (AAPL) is preparing a second-generation iPhone Air for spring 2027 and current prototypes now in advanced testing add a second rear camera for ultrawide-angle photography, Bloomberg reported saying Apple also is working to improve the battery life, according to the report.
• Accenture (ACN) Q3 EPS $3.80 vs consensus $3.71; Q3 revs $18.7B vs. est. $18.74B; narrows FY26 adjusted EPS view to $13.78-$13.90 from $13.65-$13.90 (est. $13.85) as now expects full-year revenue growth to be 3% to 4% in local currency; now expects revenue growth to be 4% to 5% in local currency. Prior view was full-year revenue growth of 3% to 5% in local currency. ACN will buy a majority stake in Dragos and fully acquire runZero and NetRise in a combined deal valued at $4.18B.
• AXT Inc. (AXTI) disclosed that its subsidiary Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology entered into a long-term supply agreement with Nanjing Casela Technologies; AXT’s Tongmei secures $25.4M long-term indium phosphide wafer supply agreement
• Bell Canada (BCE), Cohere, Hypertec and BUZZ High Performance Computing (HPC), a subsidiary of Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE) announced a major AI infrastructure deal, marking a significant step forward in the development and deployment of advanced AI workloads on sovereign Canadian infrastructure.
• Intel Corp. (INTC) shares jump after President Trump said Thursday in a post on Truth Social that Apple (AAPL) had agreed to partner with Intel to design and manufacture its chips in the United States.” Intel had reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips for Apple, following negotiations that lasted more than a year, the Wall Street Journal reported in May.
• Sk Hynix said it has shipped samples ‌of its latest high-bandwidth memory (HBM) ​chips to major customers. The next-generation 12-layer HBM4E ⁠chip reaches speeds of up to 16 gigabits per ​second per ​pin ​and offers over ‌20% better power efficiency than previous models, the company said.