Market Review: June 24, 2026

Closing Recap

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

U.S. stocks started the day in positive territory, good gains across most sector (sans energy) before ending the day mixed. Once again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Smallcap Russell 2000 outperformed, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 erased gains midafternoon following a weaker 5-year auction. Investors await Micron (MU) earnings in memory sector tonight and upcoming PCE inflation data tomorrow morning. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector outperformed in the S&P 500 thanks to a big surge in homebuilders as Treasury yields fell, Congress passed a housing bill and KBH was positive on margins in coming quarter, sending shares up over 15%. Energy (XLE) was the biggest S&P index decliner given a further decline in oil prices. Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) both posted solid gains before sliding late in the day. Attention now turns back to tech with Mu earnings after the bell and a heavy slate of economic data tomorrow morning, including PCE inflation data, GDP data, personal income/spending, Durable Goods and jobless claims.

In a note getting attention this morning, Deutsche Bank suggested a surge in capital spending is sparking concerns along several dimensions. One key to the Wall Street firm’s outlook for equities is whether the CAPEX will crowd out buybacks, the largest component of its demand-supply framework and a significant driver of equity return. Capex is indeed surging, mainly driven by a narrow group of big hyperscalers and five of those (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, ORCL) are responsible for two-thirds of the increase in capex over the last two years. S&P 500 buybacks rose to a record $300B in Q1 ($1.2 trillion annualized) on a gross basis and to a record $270 billion on a net basis.

Few sector standouts today, private credit stocks fell (ARES, APO, BX, CG, OWL) after MS and APO showed large redemption requests; energy stocks dropped with oil prices tumbling to lowest levels since early March; homebuilder stocks surged after Congress bill and better margin comments from KBH after mixed results last night; memory stocks opened higher but quickly slipped ahead of MU earnings tonight; precious metal miners (CDE, NEM, HL) tumble along with industrial metals (AA, CENX, FCX, CLF) behind a sharp decline in gold/silver prices as the dollar hits 16-molnth high on rising rate hike expectations. Banks are in focus ahead of The Federal Reserve results of its latest stress test on Wednesday of 32 banks. Back to housing, big winners this morning as the House passes sweeping bill to lower housing costs by big margin vote 358-32 after Senate passed it 85-5 to help funding to build; empowers local gov’ts to streamline reviews; restricts Wall Street from buying up homes.

J.P. Morgan raised its 2026 year-end target for the S&P 500 .SPX index to 7,800 on Wednesday, citing strong earnings momentum driven by the AI-led investment boom and resilient economic conditions. The brokerage previously forecasted the index target at 7,600. In a sign of caution, @ActAccordingly on X, said earlier, “If you’re wondering just how unusual this year has been, here’s yet another way to look at it. TWENTY-THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That’s by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course, the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999…”

• May single-family home sales 580K unit annual rate, below consensus 639K, falling -7.3%. US May home sales Northeast +3.0%, Midwest +16.2%, South -4.1%, West -26.9% as new home supply 10.3 months’ worth at current pace vs April 9.3 months. US homes for sale at end of May 0.496M unit’s vs April 0.485M units and median sale price $424,900 unchanged on a y/y basis (vs. May 2025 $424,800).

• U.S. Treasury yields fell as oil prices slid to a four-month low, while investors continued to weigh the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year (2-yr -5bps to 4.15% and 10-yr -7bps to 4.42%). Shorter-dated Treasury yields have climbed since Fed policymakers signaled last week that they expect to raise borrowing costs later this year. US 30-year Treasury yields drop to 4.8572%, lowest since April 15
• In crypto, there was more weakness for Bitcoin and Ethereum as Bitcoin falls below $60,000, falling 4% and is now down nearly -20% this month. @KobeissiLetter noted on X, “US Bitcoin ETFs saw -$6.4 billion in outflows over the last 30 days, the largest 30-day outflow on record. Last week alone, Bitcoin ETFs posted -$233 million in withdrawals. Overall, crypto funds saw -$116 million in outflows last week, marking the 5th consecutive weekly outflow. This brings 12-month cumulative inflows into crypto funds down to +$5.0 billion, the lowest since August 2025. By comparison, the October 2025 peak stood at +$10.0 billion.”

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $70.34/bbl, down $2.87, or 3.92% while Brent crude futures settle at $73.74/bbl, down $3.34, or 4.33% falling to their lowest level since before the start of the Iran war as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Brent touched a low of $73.22, its weakest level since February 27, the day before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Three stranded tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude oil were exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, with two heading to Asia, shipping data showed, as the interim deal between Iran and the U.S. unlocks more supply stuck in the Gulf.
• Weekly energy inventory data per the EIA showed U.S. weekly crude stocks fell -6.1M bbls to 412.13M, vs forecast of 4.5M bbl draw, weekly gasoline stocks rose 2.1M bbls to 216.3M, vs forecast of 0.6M bbl draw and U.S. weekly distillate stocks up 3.1M bbls to 106.12M, vs forecast of 0.5M bbl draw. US crude oil stocks excluding the SPR fell last week to lowest since January 2025, Midwest crude oil stocks fell last week to lowest since November 2014 and Crude oil stocks at Cushing hub in Oklahoma fell last week to lowest since October 2014. Total US crude oil stocks, including the SPR, fell last week to the lowest since October 1984.

• In Autos: HTZ shares fell after announced a private offering of $300M exchangeable PIK notes due 2030; a portion of the interest to be paid in cash and in form of PIK ("payment-in-kind") interest and also commences separate public offering of $100M shares; said unexpected softness in the used car market caused it to realize losses on vehicle sales in May compared to gains in Apr, and now sees adj EBITDA of $50-$80M, near the lower end of previous Q2 guidance.

• U.S. President Donald Trump later canceled a planned signing of bipartisan legislation aimed at speeding up the construction and availability of more affordable housing. "Today’s Housing News Conference and Signing is hereby cancelled until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE America ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
• In Homebuilders: KBH reported Q2 EPS and orders below the Street, but shares bounced amid details on margin recover; Q2 revs fell -27% y/y to $1.1B but topped consensus of $1.1B as Revenue and profitability fell mainly due to a 23% y/y decrease in homes delivered but sees sequentially higher delivery volumes and gross margins in final two quarters. The margin guidance headlines helped boost DHI, LEN, MTH, BZH, TOL and other housing names. @bespokeinvest noted on X, “The homebuilder ETF $ITB is in a new bull market, now up 21% since May 19th. Up 7% today.”
• Residential REITs: INVH was upgraded to overweight at Wells Fargo (tgt to $33 from $31) and names it one of its top residential picks into Q2 earnings. The spring leasing season turned out better than feared, and the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act will add more investment opportunities.

• Alternative Energy/Solar: FCEL shares jumped early as the renewable power company and Fit Energy USA announced a strategic agreement for up to 380 megawatts of clean, baseload on-site power for data centers, using FCEL’s utility-scale fuel cell technology. Under the arrangement, Fit Energy will be eligible to receive warrants tied to future deployment milestones of up to 380 MW. RUN shares rallied after saying it is partnering with TSLA and Renew Home to deliver more than 16 GW of flexible energy capacity to hyperscalers and utilities.

• Private Credit: weakness back in the sector (ARES, BX, CG, OWL) after MS said its North Haven Private Income Fund, which manages ~$7 billion in assets, reported that it received redemption requests equivalent to 11.6% of its net asset value in Q2, up from 10.9% in Q1. More than half of Q2 requests came from investors who failed to exit in full in the prior quarter. APO’s flagship retail private credit fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, saw an even larger surge, with withdrawal requests reaching ~17% of net asset value in Q2, up from 11% in Q1.
• Asset Managers: RBC Capital attributed weakness in IVZ shares on Tuesday (6.1% decline vs 1.4% decline in the S&P 500 index) partly to STT filing a prospectus for its new Nasdaq-100 index ETF; interestingly, filings indicate the management fee rate on the product would be 10bps, which would be materially lower than the roughly 18bps fee rate for IVZ’s QQQ product. As a reminder, the Nasdaq licensing fee alone would likely be 8bps for all providers.
• In Insurance: PFG was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America citing an expectation of decelerating operating income growth in the next 12 months; expects Principal’s operating income growth to slow to mid-single-digits from low-double-digits currently and notes that shares now trade near the high ends of their relative trading ranges, while the dividend yield forecast appears to be breaking below 3% for the first time since February 2023.
• Brokers & Exchanges: TW expands Kalshi prediction market data, index into institutional trading workflows; CBOE entered the prediction markets business with the launch of CBOE Predicts, a platform debuting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500.
• Fintech sector: TOST will replace BLD in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 1 as QXO is acquiring TopBuild in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions. UPST renews forward-flow deal with Neuberger for up to $600M in consumer loans.

• GILD won FDA approval to sell its drug Trodelvy as a first treatment for newly diagnosed patients with the advanced form of a type of breast cancer known as "triple negative" because it has characteristics that render common treatments ineffective.
• Several biotech names announce secondary offerings after rallies in shares post data: Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) 20.6M share Secondary priced at $34.00. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) 9M share Secondary priced at $20.00. UniQure (QURE) 4.95M share Spot Secondary priced at $45.50.
• Managed care: Bank America raised price tgts for UNH to $475 and HUM to $380 saying their Trend Tracker points to a slowdown in Q2 trend as it receives more data points; but firm raises tgts on better visibility.
• MedTech sector: INMD confirmed an unsolicited takeover offer from M.N. Business Strategy, a group backed by the company’s CEO and co-founder, Moshe Mizrahy, in a proposed deal indicated an offer price of $16.20 per share.
• CRO Sector: ICLR reported 1Q results last night, with revenue and EPS ahead of consensus, and importantly book-to-bill of 1.42x (vs. 1.27x consensus and 1.36x and 1.00x in 4Q and 3Q respectively. B2B was 1.4x under old methodology) and Net Bookings ahead of street. The presentation noted a constructive demand environment. The company reiterated its FY26 guidance of revenues of $7.85B to $8.15B and EPS of $10 to $11.

• Aerospace & Defense: VVX was downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform at Raymond James after it exceeded its target following a +50% YTD run vs a ~22% decline for peers and a +19% return for the Russell 2K. VVX’s 50% return vs. peers’ 22% decline represents 72 percentage points of outperformance. Historically, gov’t services stocks mean revert after this level of outperformance or underperformance. Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) will be added to the S&P 500 & 100 on Monday, June 29. Honeywell Aerospace will replace CAG in the S&P 500 as HON is pinning off Honeywell Aerospace in a transaction expected to be completed on June 29.
• Industrials: FLS downgraded from Buy to Hold at TD Cowen and cut tgt to $70 from $85 saying they see a tough setup into results where the outlook likely needs to be lowered, but there is an apparent hesitancy to walk back commitments given the progress the company had made on track record ahead of the Iran war.

• Precious metal sector falls both prices of gold and silver tumbled yet again, with gold dropping below $4,000 an ounce as the US dollar hits 52-week highs and Treasury yields remain elevated following the FOMC policy meeting last week which indicated the improved chances of a Fed rate hike this year to slow inflation. Shares of gold/silver miners AG, AEM, B, CDE, NEM, PAAS, WPM, HL were all broadly lower. Industrial metal; stocks also hit today for aluminum, steel, copper names (AA, FCX, CLF, etc.) were down with stronger dollar. When the dollar strengthens: it becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies (euros, yuan, rupees, etc.) to purchase the same amount of metal. it also reduces demand from major importers like China, Europe, and emerging markets – Revenue drops as prices decline, even if production volumes stay the same.
• In Chemicals: CC greed to pay $450 million to settle allegations it used "forever chemicals" in its products; UBS said the announcement of a potential resolution in the Middle East resulted in a further sell-off of plastics producers. UBS estimates for DOW, LYB and WLK reflect a peak for PetChem pricing in Q2 with pricing beginning to ease in Q3 and normalizing into 2027. Consultants now model PE price declines in Q3 (PE down 18 CPP vs down 6 CPP prior), which could be ~16%/13%/10% downside to DOW vs Q3 consensus said UBS. Citigroup said ECL top pick in Specialty chems and gases preview and Overweight LIN vs Underweight APD pair trade initiated. The firm also cut targets in the commodity chemicals group (CE, DOW, EMN, LYB, WLK) citing pricing pressure from expectations for a Middle East peace agreement. Citi reduced estimates across the group to reflect the crude oil and chemical supply environment as well as a weaker outlook for spreads.

• AI Data Center/Neoclouds: NBIS unveiled Version 3.6 of Nebius AI Cloud "Aether" introduces Nebius Echo, a first look at Nebius’ AI agent for controlling cloud infrastructure using natural language. Built directly into the Nebius AI Cloud web console, Echo can answer questions and execute core operations, with guardrails to prevent unintentional actions.
• In Robotics: CCXI shares jumped after the company will take Agility Robotics public, ticker AGLT, in a deal valuing the startup at about $2.5B; expected to generate over $600M in gross proceeds, per report, including $420M cash from Churchill Xi and a private investment in public equity of over $200M led by Foxconn.
• Video game software: TTWO Rockstar Games to begin Grand theft Auto VI pre-orders on June 25, 2026; Grand theft Auto VI launches November 19, 2026 for PS5 and Xbox series X|s at $79.99; Grand theft Auto VI: ultimate edition to be available for $99.99; pre-orders before November 20, 2026 include vintage vice City pack and free month of GTA+
• Internet: GOOGL will replace VZ in the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the opening of trading on June 29. Alphabet, the parent of Google, has one of the largest market capitalizations in the world and a stock price of around $350, against about $47 for Verizon. The Alphabet addition is the first change to the Dow Jones Industrial Average since Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams were added to the index in November 2024, replacing Dow, and Intel.
• Connectivity: shares of APH were higher and TEL lower following Edgewater comments earlier – APH is the cleaner long here says Edge noting datapoints are increasingly constructive on both near- and long-term Ai/DC positioning while notes TEL recent datapoints have dented confidence in the previously expected NVDA backplane share gains and Associated revenue upside.

• OpenAI unveils custom chip it designed with AVGO to boost its Ai infrastructure; OpenAI plans to deploy Jalape�o by the end of this year. Broadcom’s CEO said Jalape�o matches Nvidia Blackwell and Google’s tensor processing units. OpenAI designed Jalape�o for inference to answer chatbot queries per Reuters. The chip is expected to deploy with MSFT and other data center partners starting in 2026, with CLS handling board, rack, and system integration work.
• South Korea’s SK Hynix said it plans to raise up to $29.4 billion through a U.S. stock market listing in what would be a record secondary listing. If completed at the top end, the offering would be the largest U.S. listing by a Korean firm and potentially the biggest ever via American Depositary Receipts, surpassing Alibaba’s $25 billion 2014 debut.