Market Review: August 25, 2026

Closing Recap

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

U.S. stocks finished higher in another lackluster trading day as many of the weekly catalysts are coming up, partially explaining the lethargic trading levels on Wall Street the last few days (in addition to it being the last week of the summer). Earnings are in focus tomorrow night with semi giant Nvidia (NVDA) results along with software companies CRWD, CRM, OKTA and other key tech names. The other focus is Wednesday mornings U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report for July and then Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for further clues on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook. In trade news, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. as they plan 15%-50% tariffs on roughly $20B of U.S. goods starting Sept. 8, escalating its trade dispute with Washington. Targets include Steel, Aluminum, motorcycles, appliances and food products, with metals tariffs doubling to 50%. Ottawa also announced C$7.5B in support for affected businesses and workers. The retaliation follows new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports. News flow was quiet ahead of a few key earnings results this week as Communications, Technology and Utilities led in the S&P 500 while Energy and Consumer Staples were the biggest losers on the day with retail taking a hit behind a lower outlook and forecast from Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) as shares fell over -30%.

• US June home prices in 20 metro areas +0.2% seasonally adj (consensus +0.1%) vs +0.2% in May (previous +0.2%) – S&P Cotality Case-Shiller reported. US June 20-metro area home prices non-adjusted +0.4% vs +0.9% in May (previous +0.9%). US June 20-metro area home prices +2.1% (consensus +1.7%) from year ago vs +1.6% in May (previous +1.6%).
• Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index +4 in Aug vs +5 in July while Richmond Fed manufacturing shipments index +11 in Aug vs +8 in July.

• Bitcoin rose above $81,000 for the first time since mid-May before paring gains, but extending its recent rally while the dollar index (DXY) was little changed ahead of tomorrows PCE inflation report and Treasury yields slid ahead of the report, pulling back from multi year highs.
• Oil prices fell about 4% to a one-week low as traders shrugged off the latest U.S. sanctions campaign against Iran. WTI crude declined -$2.65 or 3.12% to settle at $82.36 per barrel while Brent crude prices declined -$3.59 or 3.89% to settle at $88.58 per barrel as both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since August 17. The shift from military conflict to economic pressure in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran appears to have reduced some of the oil market’s anxiety.

• Apparel retail: Stifel noted NKE 2026 back-to-school footwear survey (see note) identified Nike as the most Popular brand in 45.8% of checks across Stifel’s 110 store census, an increase of +7.6ppts Y/y vs the all-time low of 38.2% recorded in BTS ’25, but well below the 92.5% popularity peak in 2021
• Online Retail: BABA executives, including co-founder and chairman Joseph Tsai, bought more than 1.1M shares worth about $15.3M on Monday, according to SEC filings. Tsai purchased 720,000 shares at an average of $14.29, while CEO Eddie Wu bought 350,000 shares at a weighted average of $14.24.
• Discount Retail: FIVE downgraded to Hold from Buy with $250 PT at Loop Capital based on current valuation levels as opposed to a more bearish view of the company’s fundamentals. Loop believes its bullish fundamental outlook on Five Below is largely priced in at current levels.
• Auto sector: TSLA raised the prices of some of its Cybertruck pickup trucks in the United States on Tuesday, according to its website. The company increased the price of its Cybertruck dual motor and premium all-wheel drive by $5,000 to $74,990 and $84,990 respectively.

• Trucking sector: UBS noted Truckload dry van (ex-fuel) spot rates rose sharply in May through early July, but they have declined 11% since the first week of July which is worse than a normal seasonal decline of only 3%. Growth in spot rates is a key driver of truckload stock P/Es and valuation in the current cycle is following a similar pattern to prior cycles and reflecting that July was the peak in y/y increase in spot rates. KNX’s forward P/E was ~30x in February and it is now around 21x. If we assume normal seasonality off an August rate of $2.04/mile, TL spot rates would rise to ~ $2.25 / mile in December. We believe pressure on capacity looking forward is the key factor which could support upside for TL names from here.
• Aerospace sector: BA was awarded a $131,23B contract from the U.S. Department of War for indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract to support the F-15 Eagle Crest program, which oversees the F-15 fighter aircraft fleet. The work is expected to be completed by August 2037.
• Material sector: in lithium sector, ALB shares fell after JPM lowered 2026 EBITDA estimate from $3.4B to $2.9B, vs. $1.1B in 2025 noting Lithium prices have come down from recent peaks reached in May 2026, which approached $30,000/t. Their Q3:26 EBITDA estimate is $668M versus $858mm in Q2:26.

• Banking sector: VLY agreed to buy Providence Financial for about $247M in cash and stock in a deal that expands the bank and financial holding company’s presence in the Chicago metropolitan area. Providence has about $1.6 billion in total assets, $1.3 billion in total deposits, $1.1 billion in total loans.
• Lending sector: BFH was upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform at Wolfe Research saying while they see it in the mid-to-late innings of that journey, it expects continued upside to near-term estimates as growth accelerates, expense growth remains disciplined, and credit improves.

• KURA shares rise after CEO, Chairman, and President Troy Wilson purchased 100,000 shares worth $1.2 million at $12.40 on August 24.
• ZYME announced that its partner, JAZZ, has received U.S. FDA approval for two Ziihera-containing regimens for the first-line treatment of adults with unresectable locally advanced or metastatic HER2-positive gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma.
• Medical Distributors: MCK to acquire privately held Precision Medicine Group for about $2.25B. Precision Medicine Group will report within McKesson’s Oncology & Multispecialty segment after close.

• Hardware sector: AAPL unveiled a new Mac mini lineup, with preorders starting today and availability beginning Sept. 22. The M6 Mac mini starts at $899, has a 12-core CPU / 12-core GPU and is up to 40% faster CPU performance vs. M4 with up to 4x faster AI performance and up to 32GB unified memory. The M5 Pro Mac mini starts at $1,699 with up to 18-core CPU / 20-core GPU and up to 64GB unified memory. Apple claims up to 8.5x faster LLM prompt processing vs. M2 Pro.

• AMD was upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy at Raymond James and raised tgt to $641 from $565 as extends its Ai Factory framework to the server CPU market and forecast revenue growing at a 44% five-year CAGR to ~$201B in CY30, driven by conventional datacenter demand.
• NVTS moves deeper into the AI power stack with its acquisition of Claros for up to $233M by adding vertical power delivery and integrated voltage regulator technology closer to the processor.
• SKHY union has rejected an agreement that would have raised salaries and paid out a portion of bonuses in company shares, Yonhap News reports.
• SMCI rises as CSCO announced a formal expansion of its AI infrastructure portfolio through a new partnership with Super Micro.
• Semi Equipment sector (AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML): Goldman Sachs raised their 2026/27/28 WFE estimates to $150/$218/$281 bn (+36%/+45%/+29%) from $141/$186/$208 bn (+28%/+32%/+12%), driven by significant CAPEX revisions and more constructive outlooks from SPE suppliers