Market Review: August 31, 2026

Closing Recap

Monday, August 31, 2026

Lots of market chop today to start the trading week as low volumes/quiet news ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend kept markets in check, finishing lower but near the best levels of the day. It was a very tight range all afternoon ahead of some key economic data this week including nonfarm payrolls and ADP private payrolls, though most S&P sectors ended lower amid a rebound in oil prices and Treasury yields following the hawkish comments by Fed Chair Warsh at last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Oil prices haven’t slowed down as tensions in the Middle East keep spiking with the U.S. and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in a month, while Iran said a tanker was hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Market drama plus climbing inflation is a strong formula for a rate hike from the Fed, could it be September?

Coming into the final trading day of the month (and ahead of the Labor Day weekend), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.1% month-to-date, putting the index on track for its fifth consecutive monthly advance. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite are headed for their first one-month increases since May, up about 3% and 4%, respectively. Technology (XLK) has led the charge this month, with artificial intelligence-linked stocks outperforming, up nearly 6% for the month. Materials (XLB), Healthcare (XLV) and Energy (XLE) are both up over 5% this month, while Utilities (XLU) -3.6% and Industrials (XLI) -1.5%.

Stats of the day: @Bluekurtic noted on X, “Next week is a 4-day trading week with markets closed Monday for Labor Day. Fun stat: the S&P 500 has fallen on the first trading day of Labor Day week for 9 straight years since 2017. Longest such losing streak since 1950. In 2026, that day is Tuesday, Sept. 8.”; 2) @Bluekurtic also note don X, “ The S&P 500 has now gone 900+ days without a 20% bear market drawdown. If the AI era rhymes with the dot-com boom, we may not even be a third of the way through this streak. In the 1990s, the index went 3,102 days without a 20% drawdown.”

September is gearing up to be a monumental month for U.S. equity markets (SPY) (VOO), with $9.6T in options exposure set to expire between now and Sept. 18. This fast-approaching wave represents roughly 35% of all total U.S. options exposure, according to a recent note from Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities. The impending quarterly expiration alone will account for $6.2T, or 23% of total exposure, and is tracking to surpass June’s record $7.7T triple-witching event. The vast majority of the expiration is heavily concentrated in SPX AM options, which total $4.0T. This massive roll-off creates a potential reset for the broader market’s technical backdrop, Rubner warned. https://tinyurl.com/2p9kdsvw

• After tumbling -2.88% on Friday, gold prices were down another -$48.40, or -1.07%, to settle at $4,481.50 an ounce while December silver slips -$0.80, or -1.17%, at $66.99 an ounce after FOMC Chair Warsh hawkish comments on rates last week weighs on metals/stocks. However, for the month, gold ended higher by over 9% and silver 15% for the month. Wall Street continues to assess growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike following hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh as a surge in oil prices further added to inflation concerns.
• Treasury yields jumped on Monday as the 10-year rose 3.4bps to 4.75% (neared 4.77% earlier) while the 30-year yield climbed 5% to 5.25% which in turn boosted mortgage rates as the 30-year fixed rate recently hit 6.87%, the highest since June 2025.

• Specialty Retail sector: GME says it amended its previously announced debt exchange of $1.4B as revised deal would pay about 27% in cash, or roughly $358.4M, with remainder paid in stock; also reports preliminary Q2 revenue $780M-$800M vs $972.2M last year; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities are expected to be in the range of $5.050B-$5.070B.
• Retailers: The WSJ reported the FTC and over 20 states plan to file a lawsuit against AMZN, alleging the company manipulated prices businesses paid to advertise on the platform; ANF was upgraded to Buy at Argus noting it had been looking for signs of improved sales strength as an update trigger, and those signs were evident with the company’s Q2 earnings beat as Abercrombie & Fitch grew its sales and expanded margins.

• Oil stocks rise on higher oil prices (XOM, CVX, COP) following renewed U.S.-Iran military tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel after U.S. forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, while Iran retaliated with attacks on U.S. positions in the region, raising concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows through the key transit route.
• MLPs/Pipelines: OKE announced that it has executed a definitive agreement to acquire Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for total cash consideration of $4.425B. The acquisition will be funded through a $9B nonvoting minority equity investment from funds and affiliates managed by Apollo (APO). ONEOK intends to use $5B of proceeds from the equity investment to reduce ONEOK’s existing indebtedness.
• Oil Service sector: SLB said it will acquire cooling equipment maker Kelvion from APO and funds managed by Triton for $3.4 billion in cash, expanding its data center business as rapid AI adoption drives demand for power and cooling infrastructure. SLB will also assume about $700 million of Kelvion’s debt under the deal, which is expected to close in the first half of 2027; targets $4.5-$5B revenue and $700-$800M adj EBITDA for data center business in 2028.

• Insurance sector: AON will buy rival USI Insurance Services in a $17 billion deal from private equity firm KKR, as the insurance brokerage confirmed reports by the WSJ this weekend.

• ARWR presented results from the Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 studies of Plozasiran in adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia during a Hot Line Late-Breaking Science session at the European Society of Cardiology, in Munich, Germany. SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 met their primary and all prespecified secondary endpoints and demonstrated deep and durable reductions in triglycerides.
• BMRN announced that they’ve reached an IP settlement with ASND surrounding Yuviwel; economics show will receive (18-20% Royalty, paid retroactively) are better than anticipated said Stiefl and a more legitimate hedge against any lost sales from patient switches.
• LLY signed a definitive agreement to acquire Merida Biosciences for up to $2.875B in cash, including an upfront payment and contingent milestone payments. Merida’s lead asset MER511 is in Phase 1 for Graves’ disease and thyroid eye disease, with initial data showing robust reductions in pathogenic thyroid-stimulating antibodies and a favorable initial safety profile.
• ONC announced positive topline results from the second interim analysis of the Phase 3 HERIZON-GEA-01 trial evaluating Ziihera, in combination with chemotherapy, with and without Tevimbra, as first-line treatment for HER2+ locally advanced or metastatic gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma.
• PTGX announced that TAK received U.S. FDA approval for MIMRYLO, a subcutaneously delivered first-in-class hepcidin mimetic peptide for the treatment of erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera.

• Aerospace sector: shares of HWM, DPC declined after Elon Musk said Saturday that SPCX could start in-house casting of gas Turbine blades and vanes. Musk said that SpaceX and TSLA are building 100 gigawatts/year of solar production capacity, but Natural gas will be required to supplement it. Both HWM make blades and vanes for Aerospace engines and industrial gas turbines
• Gov’t service sector: SAIC raises FY27 adjusted EPS view to $10.65-$10.75 from $9.90-$10.10 (vs. consensus $10.18), while raises FY27 revenue view to $7.2B-$7.3B from $7B-$7.2B (est. $7.19B) and boosts FY27 adjusted EBITDA view to $750M-$755M from $720M-$730M.
• Metals & Mining: KALU upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS saying despite a strong Q2, shares are ~19% off Aug highs due to: 1) USMCA renegotiations; 2) CEO transition; & 3) scrap spread sustainability and says the selloff provides investors attractive entry point.

• Hardware sector: AAPL increased its U.S. subscription rates effective August 28, 2026, with the change taking effect immediately for new subscribers and existing subscribers. New pricing in the U.S.: Monthly: $14.99 (up from $12.99), Annual: $119 (up from $99). Apple One Individual (Apple TV + Apple Music + iCloud+ 50GB + Apple Arcade) now $21.95/month (up from $19.95)
• Memory sector: The Information reported China’s leading memory-chip maker, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), has begun producing advanced high-bandwidth memory in small quantities. CXMT is making HBM3E, an advanced type of high-bandwidth memory used in many of today’s leading Ai processors, according to two people familiar with the matter.
• IT Services & Consulting: EPAM shares active after activist hedge fund Engine Capital, which owns about 1.5% of EPAM, sends a letter to co’s board highlighting the co’s undervaluation and urges the initiation of a $750 mln accelerated stock buyback program.
• Semiconductors: AMD, CSCO announced that AMD Instinct MI355X GPU-based AI infrastructure built on Cisco Silicon One-based AI networking is now live in Saudi Arabia. SKHY is looking for a site in Japan to build a memory fab to be operated as a joint venture Bloomberg reported. Also a report that SKHY is considering a partnership with INTC’s foundry division for the production of substrate chips for its upcoming generation of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4E) products.
• @GlobalMktObserv noted on X, “Semiconductor stocks represent ~14% of the total US stock market cap. This is down only -2 percentage points from June’s peak. In effect, this proportion is still TRIPLE the level seen in 2023. The percentage is also 2X HIGHER than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 7%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor index, $SOX, has dropped ~20% from its June peak.”
• Robotics: Goldman Sachs raised their humanoid robot forecast to ~890K units by 2030 and 6.5mn by 2035 — a $138bn market opportunity saying they look for robots to improve profitability for adopters in warehouse automation, car production, and semiconductor manufacturing. Best positioned across the value chain in US: Buy-rated AMZN, WMT, NVDA, JBL and Neutral-rated TSLA.