Market Review: July 09, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, July 09, 2026

U.S. stocks surged Thursday, propelled again by the Tech trade (XLK) as the Nasdaq remains volatile, but a leader (XLK +28% YTD). The Nasdaq 100 bounced off its 50dma support of $713.75 and propelled higher (above $722) led by chip stocks (SOX), optical stocks, AI data plays while large cap tech (GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA) and software lagged. Today’s rally came despite renewed tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. military began launching fresh strikes on Iran hours after President Trump declared the eight-week ceasefire was over. After a 5% spike on Wednesday, oil prices resumed their move lower Thursday, helping ease Treasury yields. In Fed news, NY Fed President John Williams flagged AI-driven demand as his primary inflation concern, warning that if it creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply, the Fed may need to raise rates. Fed fund futures now pricing in 34.4 bps of hikes by year end. In September we see 19.2 bps. The Smallcap Russell 2000 also participated in today rally, rising over 1%. Micron (MU) shares rose over 4% on pledges of massive US investment (over $250B) and broader chip sector optimism, while other chip-related names like SanDisk (SNDK), Lumentum (LITE), and memory plays showed solid gains ahead of tomorrow’s Hynix US listed trading day. META shares were a standout on AI headlines, rising 4.7%. Market breadth was positive as seven of eleven S&P sectors closed higher.

• June Existing Home Sales -2.4% to 4.09M annual rate vs May +3.7% (prev +3.2%); June inventory of homes for sale 1.56M units, 4.6 months’ worth; U.s June National median home price for existing homes at record high $440,600, +1.8% from June 2025.

• Meanwhile oil prices pulled back after rising over 5% on Wednesday as WTI crude dropped -$1.44 or 1.96% to settle at $72.08 per barrel and Brent crude declined -$1.72, or 2.2% to settle at $76.30 per barrel. Headline risk eased a day after the U.S. launched fresh attacks against Iran.
• The U.S. dollar rallied early vs safe have Japanese yen, rising to best level since 1986 around 162.58, but overall DXY was flattish on the day. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has advanced 2.6% year-to-date and 1.8% in the past six months to $100.88.
• U.S. Treasuries firmed with yields edging lower as investors took advantage of this week’s selloff to buy bonds. The 10-year yield fell -1.5bps to 4.551% after hitting a seven-week high on Wednesday around 4.6% while the U.S. 30-year bond yield was little changed at 5.065%. Two year notes slid 2 basis points (bps) to 4.18%. On Tuesday, the 2-year yield touched its highest level in two weeks.

• Discount Retail: FIVE upgraded to Outperform with $220 tgt at Mizuho as sees upside to 2H Street estimates as new customers are being retained at a high rate; said paid Instagram and TikTok influencers are amplifying trends and expanding reach across its core customer demographics.
• Apparel Retail: LEVI Q2 adj EPS $0.28 vs. est. $0.24 and revs $1.56B tops est. $1.52B; guides FY adj EPS $1.46-$1.52 vs. est. $1.50 and rev growth up 7%-7.5%; sees FY26 organic rev growth 5.5%-6%; raises quarterly dividend to $0.16 from $0.14.
• Food & Beverages: PEP posted mixed Q2 results as adj EPS of $2.20 per share fell short of the $2.21 a share expected while revs rose 6.4% y/y to $24.18B above the $23.95B while backed its full-year outlook for earnings and sales growth. MNST declares two-for-one stock split. BRBR shares fell after new CEO announced late yesterday, appointed veteran consumer packaged goods executive Michael Axelrod as its next President and CEO, effective July 29, 2026.
• Toy Retail: MAT was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs as views as an execution story with a higher than average degree of operational complexity over the next six to 12 months.
• In Home Furnishings: Barclays said home furnishing price increases Y/y for WSM were stable in June, tracking ~LSD Y/y as cycles changes last year, while ARHS remain elevated at +HSD Y/y. Shipping/delivery fees have also moved higher. Implications positive for sales/margins.

• In Casinos & Gaming: CZR was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight saying believes there is low likelihood that the company accepts a topping bid to Fertitta’s current $31 per share buy-out offer. In prediction markets, Michael Burry, the investor famed for predicting and profiting from the 2008 U.S. housing market collapse, has ‌bought shares of sports-betting platforms FLUT and DKNG, ‌wagering regulatory scrutiny will eventually curb the threat posed by prediction markets. Shares of LVS hit 52-week lows while WYNN bounces off its recent 52-week lows.

• Transports: Citigroup upgraded KNX and SAIA to Buy and ODFL to Neutral following recent share pullbacks, citing Q2 trucking earnings on pace for some of the strongest year-over-year EPS gains in years on tighter capacity, higher truckload rates, and margin recovery, though the firm flags more modest upside in 2H26 relative to 1H. AMZN is pushing to quickly grow volume for its U.S. delivery offering through lower shipping rates for prospective customers, parcel pricing experts told Supply Chain Dive, competitive or lower than FDX, UPS.
• Multi Industry: Wolfe Research downgraded PNR to Peer Perform noting they simply do not see the re-rating catalyst thro’ YE. Pool share losses are a concern and must be addressed in order to restore investor confidence. GWW was upgraded to Peer Perform at Wolfe noting the stock has run higher and the valuation has extended but they still see an upside skew to FY26/27 Street and valuation is reasonable vs. peers.
• Containerboard & Packing sector: Citigroup named BALL, SON and CCK as top picks into Q2 earnings, citing solid underlying demand in beverage cans and containerboard, compelling valuation at 8.5x NTM EBITDA versus the 5-year average of 9.3x, and expectations that most producers will reiterate full-year guidance despite Q2 and 2026 estimates trimmed roughly 1% on higher recycled fiber and freight cost. PKG was downgraded at Wells Fargo noting the company has been a relative outperformer through the Middle East conflict – helped by a flight to quality – and now trades at a sizable premium vs. key peers.
• Metals & Mining and Steel sector: INMD shares rise as Steel Partners, an investment firm and long-time InMode shareholder, offers to buy co for $16.75 per share in cash; offer values INMD at about $963M. Precious metal prices and gold/silver miners bounced after tumbling Wednesday.
• In Chemicals: New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a sweeping lawsuit against chemical manufacturers MMM, CC, CTVA and DD, accusing them of knowingly contributing to decades of contamination from toxic PFAS compounds, commonly known as forever chemicals.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE received a positive catalyst call from Deutsche Bank in Q2 preview for Brokers/exchanges saying they favored E-Brokers followed by oversold Exchanges. Overall, the firm expects the Q2 earnings season to be volatile once again amid mixed results vs expectations, escalating product innovation that creates perceived market share challenges, and a continued uncertain macro backdrop. The firm said it especially favors CBOE as views the stock as oversold (albeit recently recouping some losses) on perceived market-share loss to any risk of eventual success in perpetual futures products, which it views as overblown.
• Financial info Services: Deutsche Bank previewed the sector saying sees opportunity for MSCI to continue to outperform on a sustained acceleration that is driven by new products and solutions – while is also positive on TRU.  The firm said info services stocks remain at the mercy of the Ai trade; a slight unwind over the last few days has resulted in some strength but that may prove to be short-lived. The overall macro picture remains dynamic and volatile with rates staying elevated.
• FinTech sector TOST was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs as it looks for opportunities in underperforming payment stocks. Specifically, the firm is becoming more positive on higher-quality companies with compressed valuations.
• In Insurance: AJG and RYAN were both downgraded to Peer Perform at Wolfe saying a higher capital returns is not enough, in their view, to pacify investors’ concerns about soft pricing (cycle could last +8years). Growth prospects are bleak and reserving deficiencies should come up to the surface. A less active hurricane season swells excess capital.

• AZN and IONS shares fall after their Phase III trial for heart drug Wainua (eplontersen) failed to meet its primary endpoint in patients with transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM). The news was positive for other ATTR related drug by BBIO.
• FBRX shares jumped after statistically significant FB102 benefit observed by day 64 and continued through week 24; said FB102-treated subjects continued improving through week 24 after completion of the 12-week treatment period.
• NTRA said its personalized cancer test, Signatera, received certification under the European Union’s diagnostic device rules. Signatera is used to detect traces of cancer that may remain after treatment and monitor for recurrence.
• QGEN shares jumped after Bloomberg reported the company is drawing early takeover interest from firms including EQT Ab and Advent, while KKR is also among private equity firms that have expressed interest in Qiagen, citing sources. https://tinyurl.com/38z6ncez
• SRPT was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe saying stock gains in SRPT have been transient but believes this would shift given a different market regime and stock setup currently. MAD data H2, readthrough from Novartis, and increasing investor attention on DM1/FSHD should benefit SRPT.

• In Tower & Telecom: AMT was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research saying the end of DISH-related rent losses and completion of the Sprint/T-Mobile integration remove two major overhangs on U.S. tower growth, while sees growth to reaccelerate as churn normalizes.
• Optical stocks surged after positive Rosenblatt analyst comments saying for LITE, they view the recent weakness as a buying opportunity as demand remains incredibly strong, supply is constrained and meaningfully below demand and scale up CPO is a massive content gain opportunity for Optical over multiple years. For AAOI the firm expects to beat and raise and for 2Q26 to mark a watershed quarter where this starts happening consistently.

• Hardware sector: CBRS shares rose after announced a major expansion of its European infrastructure as will bring its first European data center capacity online by the end of 2026, with rapid build-out across France and the Nordics. The company plans to expand total capacity to 200 MW by the end of 2027.
• IT Services & Consulting: RXT shares tumbled after the company said it expects a reduction of $150M in revenue and $20M in EBITDA for full year 2026; now expects revenue to be between $2.45B and $2.55B (midpoint at $2.5B), versus the prior forecast range of $2.6B to $2.7B. Indian IT services Tata beat quarterly revenue estimates, helping boost the space (CTSH, ACN)
• In Media: PSKY shares tumbled as the company will not close its $110B acquisition of WBD before July 22, the Oregon attorney general’s Office said on Wednesday, pushing out the timeline for the deal’s closure by an additional week. Earlier Reuters reported US States are concerned the deal for Warner Bros will hurt competition. California Ag Bonta has taken the lead in investigating whether the deal violates U.S. laws against mergers that would unlawfully harm competition. Arete downgraded PSKY to sell from neutral and slashed its price target to $2, a Street low, citing concerns about the debt burden from its planned merger with Warner Bros. Discovery.

• A generally big bounce back for the semiconductor index as the SOX recovers off its 50dma touched yesterday of around 12,525, jumping back around 13,175 late day in a near 5% move led by memory stocks (MU, SNDK) and equipment stocks (AMAT, ONTO, LRCX)
• AEHR shares jumped after received a follow-on production order from its lead silicon photonics customer for a fully automated FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in system.
• LASR shares jump after awarded $627 million joint laser weapon system contract; initial award valued at $44 mln, program ceiling up to $627 mln.