Market Review: July 10, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, July 10, 2026

U.S. stocks put in a quiet positive trading session which saw the S&P 500 rise +0.4% ending near the highs ahead of June CPI/PPI inflation data, the start of earnings season Tuesday with big banks, ongoing issues with US/Iran with broken cease fire this week that lifted oil 5%, hawkish Fed meeting in June/minutes, Treasury yields above 4.5%. Yet still the S&P 500 (SPX) only remains roughly 40 points from its all-time highs of 7,620.90 on June 2^nd as the AI/tech trade leads all. The tech sector (XLK) rose about 3% this week as the Nasdaq remained strong and is up 29% YTD while energy (XLE) jumped 3.1% this week behind oil prices and is up 23% YTD. The next best sector YTD is Industrials (XLI) at 12.5%, helped by power companies also related to the AI trade.

Ahead of key inflation data next week (June CPI and PPI), the Federal Reserve said on Friday in a new report to Congress ahead of hearings on monetary policy next week that U.S. inflation “stepped up further this spring” as the evolving impact of tariffs, energy costs driven higher by conflict in the Middle East, and the booming buildout of artificial intelligence technology boosted price pressures that began building last year. “Inflation has risen this year and remains elevated relative to the Federal Open Market Committee’s longer-run objective of 2%,” with the most recent data showing the U.S. central bank’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index running about double that rate as of May, the report said.

• Oil prices posted a weekly rise of 4%, propelled by supply concerns amid fresh U.S.-Iran strikes earlier in week, though on Friday, U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $71.41/bbl, down -$0.67 cents, or 0.93%. Brent Crude futures settle at $76.01/bbl, down -$0.29 cents, or 0.38%.

• The 10-year yield rose 9bps this week to 4.568%, up 8 of the last 9 trading days and highest yield since May 22, 2026 (off 10bps from the May 19^th 52-week high of 4.668%). The 30-yr yield also rose 9bps this week to 5.071%, just shy of its 5/19 52-week high of 5.18%. The 2-year yield rose 7.8bps to 4.208% just 2bps away from its 52-week high of 2.33% on June 22^nd.

• In Airlines: DAL Q2 adj EPS $1.56 vs. est. $1.46; Q2 operating margin 9.4%; Q2 operating revs $17.67B vs. est. $17.53B; still sees FY adj EPS $6.50-$7.50, reaffirming the range it first issued in January after leaving it out of its April first-quarter release; guides Q3 EPS $2.00-$2.50 vs. est. $2.02 while expects mid-teen revenue growth and an operating margin of 11% to 13%.

• In Chemicals: WDFC shares jumped on earnings and guidance as Q3 EPS $2.24 tops est. $1.56 with margins 56.6% and sales rose 24% y/y to $195.1M vs. est. $172.8M; guides FY sales $675M-$690M vs. est. $661.6M and sees year margins 54.5%-55.5%.
• In Homebuilder sector: TOL was upgraded to Buy at Citigroup in homebuilders with a $176 TP ahead of Q2 homebuilder earnings season. Citi said it expects homebuilders to point to 2H GM stabilization after 3+ years of compression, as well as significant outperformance among higher ASP communities & more affluent homebuyers.
• In Paper & Forest sector: WY was upgraded from Outperform to Strong Buy at Raymond James following what it believes has been a disproportionate overreaction to WYs June operating update posted to the company’s website on June 25. Since then, WY shares have traded off by ~13%, leaving its valuation very close to ~$2,000/acre on a total EV/timber-only basis while ascribing ZERO value to its industry-leading Wood Products or Strategic Land Solutions platforms.

• In Brokers & Exchanges: Polymarket has sought regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the U.S., which would allow users to bet on events with less capital upfront, Bloomberg News reported. The company last week filed an application with the National Futures Association to operate as a futures commission merchant and register as a swap firm through its affiliate Coming Home GBA (watch SCHW, HOOD).

• BLCO disclosed its phase 2 study evaluating BL1107 in patients with glaucoma did not meet its primary endpoint; is discontinuing further development of eye drops for glaucoma-related vision improvement and will continue development of sustained-release implant in Geographic Atrophy.
• IONS reiterated its 2026 guidance a day after prices fell -24% following a failed heart-drug study with partner AZN as said expects revenue of $875M-$900M and an adj operating loss of $425M-$475M this year.

• AI sector: META shares extend prior day jump on optimism of launched Muse Spark 1.1, claiming it outperforms Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro while slashing pricing hard. Muse with strong agentic and coding gains, aggressive low-cost API play, and first real paid model push from Meta. Bank America said Reuters article yesterday that Meta is targeting adding 14GW of total compute capacity in 2026/2027 suggests chip progress and significant capacity expansion. Estimated 2026 capacity growth at 6.5GW is well above the firm at 2.6GW and suggests a much lower cost per GW. Memo also suggests progress with custom chip development.
• Media & Telecom: The WSJ reported facing weaker subscriber engagement amid intensifying competition, NFLX management is evaluating new offerings including live channels and third-party streaming bundles. Emirates Telecom is set to sell its VOD stake to Xavier Niel’s Vega for $5.95B, sending Vodafone shares up 12% as the deal prices at a premium to market. LILAK is downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi, which raises its price target to $8, citing the absence of meaningful rebased revenue growth despite positive free cash flow momentum and a sum-of-parts valuation that has recovered to 5.3x EBITDA. FOX upgraded to Buy at Redburn on attractive ROKU deal.
• Internet/Online: China approved online fast-fashion retailer Shein’s long-awaited Hong Kong IPO on Friday, a notice posted on the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) website showed, clearing the way for a listing that failed in New York and London. In research, SHOP was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel and raised tgt to $150 from $110 as believes the company will continue to execute its share-gaining playbook in the e-commerce while extending its leadership through agentic commerce and compounding GMV at a multiple of the broader ecommerce market.

• Cyber Security: DA Davidson said After weaker Q/Q channel feedback in DADA’s Q1 survey, overall channel feedback in its Q2 on-cal Security software survey was notably stronger Q/Q. The firm said channel feedback was strongest for CYBR, & VRNS mixed to mildly positive for QLYS & RPD, and mixed to mildly negative for TENB.
• Gaming software: Jefferies Survey shows strongest mobile gaming momentum, with Vector Driving Share Gains. Jefferies said its 2026 mobile gaming AdTech survey was most positive on Unity (U), with the company gaining roughly 200 bps of advertiser spend share and ranking as the top platform for expected incremental budget growth. Also, Jefferies’ 2Q survey of 30 e-commerce advertisers was incrementally positive, with APP’s share of network spend rising to 11% from 10% in 4Q25 and nearly all respondents expecting further share gains through 2026.
• IT Services & Consulting: Deutsche Bank cuts estimates and PTs (ACN, CTSH, DAVA, EPAM, G, GLOB) saying the bottom is not yet in as believes the IT services demand backdrop deteriorated further through CY2Q26, with macro uncertainty, enterprise spending caution, Middle East disruption, weaker discretionary projects, and rising AI disintermediation risk all weighing on growth and visibility. The firm cut estimates and price targets across the group.