Market Review: June 04, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, June 04, 2026

Despite last night’s headlines of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, US equity futures trended lower overnight. Perhaps it was AVGO’s 10%+ post-earnings slide and peripheral damage to other names or jitters over upcoming payrolls data tomorrow. That said, today’s bull-bear spread improved notably week/week with bulls climbing from 35.6% to 36.3%, while bears dipped from 41.9% to 37.0%. Today’s Fear & Greed Index registered a 54/100, pinning it in the Neutral range versus last week’s 60 (Greed) and last month’s 66 (Greed). By mid-morning, stocks had mostly recovered with market breadth favoring advancers by 19:9 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+1.37%) versus SPY (+0.16%) but QQQ (-0.62%, think AVGO). SPY breadth favored advancers by 8:3, while QQQ breadth also favoring advancers by 9:5. On a sector basis, Health Care (+2.82%), Financials (+2.41%) and Communications (+1.49%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Energy (+0.25%), Utilities (-0.54%) and Technology (-1.81%) paced the underperformers with 9 sectors gaining versus 2 declining.

In data of interest today, the market continued to show the effects of concentration as per @bespokeinvest, the S&P 500 was down slightly early, but the advance/decline line was on pace for its best reading (+297) in nearly two months. AVGO’s post-earnings decline certainly was having some impact as the shares slumped about 15% early for its worst-ever earnings reaction. Also, per @bespokeinvest, its second worst was -11% back in December. Twice in three quarters perhaps an interesting commentary on investor expectations. On jobs and AI, @charliebilello noted AI was the #1 reason for job cuts in the US for the third consecutive month with 88k cuts attributed to AI so far this year. That’s a 60% rise versus a year ago.

Heading into the final hour of trading, markets had rebounded sharply from early levels, as the Nasdaq jumped more than 400 points off lows and the S&P 500 about 50 points off lows while the Dow Jones Industrials (new record high) and Russell 2000 Smallcap index rallied the most. Breadth had improved to more than 2:1 and the XLK had worked its way back to down only 1% while Financials (XLF) and healthcare (XLV) paced the gains with both rising over 2.5%. Many of the beaten up tech stocks from the open saw massive advances in another buy the dip moment for the tech sector.  All eyes tomorrow will be on payroll data and readthrough to the Fed, so stay tuned.

Weekly Sentiment data showed: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -0.7% vs -6.3% last week. Bulls rose to 36.3% from 35.6%, Neutrals rose to 26.7% from 22.6%, Bears fall to 37.0% from 41.9%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 86.82 from 98.39 last week – last week’s Reading was the highest since the 100.7 on 12-17-25 – the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 is the 52 week hi – 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4).

• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 225,000, the highest since February and above consensus 213,000 and prior week reading of 212,000 as the 4 -week moving avg climbed to 214,750 from 208,250 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.777M from 1.785M prior and vs. consensus 1.780M.

• WTI crude futures slipped overnight on headlines of an Israel/Lebanon ceasefire agreement. Despite later stories on Hezbollah rejecting the outcome of Israel/Lebanon direct talks, optimism won out in the market today and oil futures continued to fade. July crude futures settled -$2.98/bbl, or -3.10%, at $93.04.

• Discount Retailers: FIVE shares fell after saying it sees Q2 comparable sales rising 7%-9%, slowing from 12.4% a year earlier and 22.7% in Q1 as Jefferies said the outlook implies a sequential deceleration on a two-year stack, suggesting growth has peaked despite continued earnings upside. For Q1, FIVE beat estimates and raised its annual forecast (sees FY sales $5.4-5.48B vs est $5.36B).
• Mattress retailers: SNBR shares tumbled after the Wall Street Journal reported that the firm is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, citing people familiar with the matter. SNBR grapples with high debt as well as weakening performance and plans to use bankruptcy process to reorganize while keeping business intact, may also explore a potential sale. The firm has more than $600M in debt; has struggled with declining earnings and sales volumes. Separately, Keybanc noted ISPA released mattress industry data for Q126, which points to a slight sequential improvement in total mattress dollars, largely driven by higher AUPs, as unit volumes decelerated. The data largely aligns with commentary from SGI, PRPL, and SNBR during Q1 earnings, showing continued industry challenges.
• Hardline/Broadline retail: COST reported net sales of $24.01B for the retail month of May, the four weeks ended May 31, an increase of 14.5% from $20.97B last year. Net sales for the first 39 weeks were $221.19B, an increase of 10% from $201.02B last year.

• MLPs/Pipelines/LNG: VG upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and raise PT to $17 as the Middle East conflict has reset the liquefied Natural gas supply/demand backdrop. The firm says the war has induced significant volatility and underscored the importance of diversified energy supply security. Both PAA and PAGP were both upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raised tgts citing the stronger crude price environment and Plains’ improving growth outlook for the upgrade.

• In PE/Private Credit: BX flagship private credit fund has capped withdrawals at 5% of shares in the second quarter, according to a regulatory filing. Partners Group shares rebound slightly after saying it would largely meet investors’ redemption requests for May at its largest private equity fund. Partners Group said its main U.S. fund, Partners Group Private Equity, which manages around $17B, received tenders in May for around 6% of the fund’s value. The Swiss investment manager saw its stock fall as much as 18% yesterday after investors in one of its biggest European funds put in redemption requests for around 10% of their capital but were capped at 5% (note shares of APO, ARES, BX, CG, KKR, OWL were among companies that fell yesterday on the redemption request headlines but rebounded nicely today).

• ALNY said it had teamed up with privately held AI biotech Inceptive in a deal worth up to $2 billion to use AI to speed up discovery of RNA-based medicines; ALNY will pay $30 million upfront, including cash and an equity investment in Inceptive, with additional payments tied to pre-clinical, regulatory and sales milestones.
• BIIB said the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation to its experimental drug salanersen for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA); the breakthrough therapy tag is meant to speed up development and review of drugs to treat serious conditions or those with unmet medical needs
• IOVA announced that the Therapeutic Goods Administration of Australia has granted conditional approval of Amtagvi for previously treated advanced melanoma. Amtagvi is a tumor-derived autologous T-cell immunotherapy indicated for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma
• VSTM announces U.S. FDA fast track designation for vs-7375, an oral and potential best-in-class investigational KRAS g12d (on/off) inhibitor for the treatment of KRAS g12d-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer; initiates phase 2 target-d 202 trial for advanced NSCLC

• In Managed care: UNH upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America and raise tgt to $450 from $420 as improving Medical cost trends and supportive near term data points set up a favorable Q2 earnings setup and attractive risk/reward. If utilization trends continue to moderate, UNH should lead a broader MCO rally.
• Healthcare Services: OSCR was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo and raised tgt to $20 from $11 saying the firm is now increasingly comfortable with the trajectory of the exchange market in 2026. However, Oscar’s visibility beyond this year remains low.
• In MedTech: MDT was upgraded to Buy at BTIG with $90 tgt saying the company has demonstrated consistent MSD organic growth the past several quarters, and the trajectory is improving. Also noted underlying organic revenue growth is structurally higher than in the past and with combined growing new product contributions, reasonable FY1H27 comps, and an FYQ426 print that will force the Street higher, sees an attractive top-line set-up.

• In Machinery: TTC raised its FYEPS view to $4.50-$4.62 from prior $4.40-$4.60 and boosted its year sales view to rise 4%-6.5% from prior 3%-6.5% growth view following a Q2 beat. Davidson noted with the US Crop now planted, they re-ran their proprietary US Crop model for 2026 and took its first look at 2027. The base case for both corn & soybeans suggest that the firm is past the net-income bottom and headed upward, at least modestly. That said, Davidson also plugged in assumptions for reduced fertilizer usage and found that incomes could go up more-appreciably in 2026-2027. Suggest upside for DE vs its current modest expectations and these tailwinds may be relevant for CNH and TWI as well.
• Transports: in railroads (CSX, UNP, NSC), Traffic on U.S. railroads increased by 7.2% from a year ago to 492,795 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending May 30, the Association of American Railroads reported. Commodity shipments improved by 4% to 228,346 carloads, and intermodal volume was 264,449 containers and trailers, better by 10% Y/y.

• PLTR announced a multi-tiered partnership with Google (GOOG) Cloud, enabling integrations across Google Cloud platforms and making Palantir available on Google Cloud Marketplace.
• RDW announced it has been awarded a contract from Astrobiome Space, a Luxembourg-based Biotech company to grow strawberries and test Astrobiome Space’s proprietary soil Enhancement product inside Redwire’s Greenhouse systems on board the International Space Station (ISS).
• RTX was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies with a price target of $220 from $210 as estimates RTX organic sales grow 7% per year to 2028 sales of $107B, raised its EPS estimates by about 5% in 2026-2028. RTX is in a hot section of the market and now taking advantage.
• Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) launches IPO of 555.56M Class A shares as IPO price expected to be $135 per share; Elon Musk would hold more than 82% of voting power after IPO; IPO has overallotment option of 83.3 million shares; SpaceX sees $74.4 billion net proceeds from IPO, or $85.7 billion with Greenshoe

• AI Sector: AI Q4 results topped Street estimates (EPS loss (-$0.33) vs. est. loss (-$0.37); Q4 revenue $51.6M vs. est. $50.2M; sees Q1 revenue $50M-$54M, vs. consensus $51.7M) , but Bank America noted lower gross margins (down 32pts Y/y in FQ4) is concerning, even if growth can reaccelerate. IBM and Google Cloud announce strategic partnership to scale AI with human expertise and AI powered delivery. AMZN announced a €10B investment in its European fulfillment network and introduced an upgraded AI-powered Proteus warehouse robot. The new Proteus can respond to conversational prompts, prioritize tasks, plan routes, and move autonomously.

• In Optical sector: CIEN posted strong results and guidance as Q2 adj EPS $1.64 topped Wall Street consensus $1.45, and revs rose 39.5% y/y to $1.57B vs. est. $1.5B; guides Q3 revs $1.625B vs. est. $1.55B and for year to $6.3B plus/minus $100M above est. $6.18B; Q3 adj gross margin was 45% and sees FY adj gross margins 44.5%-45%. Still, shares pulled back after strong run in optical space in 2026 (LITE, COHR, GLW, AAOI).
• Software: ADSK signs strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services; Autodesk will work with AWS to advance cloud-based solutions that help customers design, build, and operate more efficiently at scale; global supply chain SaaS provider DSGX saw record revenue and operating income during Q1 as revs of $194M topped est. $191.5M but EPS $0.55 missed $0.63 est. as services revenue was also up 15% to $181M (organic growth in services revenue was approximately 9%, excluding foreign exchange fluctuations).
• IT Services & Consulting: NTSK shares tumbled on results/guidance as NNARR beat was only in line with investor expectations, as roughly half the sales force has yet to reach full productivity and mgmt raised the revenue midpoint by more than the Q1 beat, signaling confidence in 2H…but did not generate enough ARR in the April quarter to alleviate investor concerns and FCF and NRR were disappointing.
• Hardware & Quantum: Quantum Compute: HON’s Quantinuum (QNT) shares opened at $68, after its IPO priced at $60 per share. The deal size was increased to 28M shares from 26.5M and priced above the $53.00-$55.00 target range.
• Internet/Social Media: PINS shares jumped after saying it would pay Amazon Web Services $4 billion for cloud services through 2031, as the social media company strengthens a long-term partnership with its largest-ever deal.

• Memory sector: MU, SNDK, WDC shares fell, already hit by AVGO Ai rev guidance, but also as Sk Hynix told investors this week that its proposal to list in the US has received a very positive response from shareholders, driven by strong demand for high-end Semiconductors used in Ai data Centers, Reuters reported. In response to the report, the company said it plans to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) within this year, but details including the size and timing have yet to be finalized. @schaeffers noted on X, Per @CounterPointTR, SK Hynix controls roughly: 57% of HBM rev 29% of DRAM rev, 18% of NAND rev vs $MU controlling roughly: 21% HBM rev, 22% DRAM rev, 13% NAND rev.
• Foxconn said it will work with U.S. chipmaker INTC to jointly develop and deploy next-generation AI infrastructure and intelligent computing platforms in a move to capture booming demand for AI computing systems. Foxconn said the partnership would combine Intel’s chip technology with Foxconn’s manufacturing.