Market Review: June 11, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, June 11, 2026

What a difference a comment makes. After chopping around for hours this morning, and stocks holding the flatline early, U.S. stock markets surged around 1:30 this afternoon after President Trump cancelled his plans attacks against Iran for tonight. The President stated in a Truth Social post: “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized – Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.” Those comments sent stock markets surging, with shares of airlines, cruise lines jumping on tumbling oil; precious metal prices/miners jumped as only energy stocks fell; tech saw a big surge as well! By end of day the Nasdaq posted its best daily returns in over two months while Small caps surged on lower oil, lower yields and momentum buying. Stocks got a further boost after the President spoke live about the MOU with Iran saying documents in final stage.

Prior to the Truth Social tweet by President Trump, markets were choppy as investors digested several market stories and catalysts. Iran/US tensions escalated overnight but oil prices remained tame, PPI inflation data came in mixed this morning (headline higher but core PPI below views), the ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps (as expected) at their policy meeting, ORCL tumbled as quarterly results were better but capex spending for AI infrastructure higher than Wall Street expected, and lastly SpaceX (SPCX) IPO set for pricing tonight after the close and trade tomorrow. Certainly, a busy day for Wall Street as most S&P sectors closed higher led by Materials, Industrials and Technology.

U.S. producer prices (PPI) increased more than expected in May, leading to the largest annual gain in 3-1/2 years as Producer Price Index increases 1.1% in May, above expectations for a 0.7% gain. Goods prices, mostly energy, account for nearly 80% of the rise in the PPI. Wholesale goods prices excluding food and energy post largest monthly gain since April 2022. The data comes a day after May CPI increased at its fastest pace in three years in May, boosted by surging prices for energy products. Nasdaq gains were led by semis as the SOX rebounds 7.9% (biggest daily gains since April 2025) after recent volatility, pulling back from record highs, but software declines behind ORCL weakness on capex spending concerns (IGV falls an 8^th straight day), with the sector giving up its May rebound, while Mag 7 names remain weak with downtrends in META, MSFT.  

Weekly Sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -17.3 vs -0.7% last week. Bulls fall to 30.4% from 36.3%, Neutrals fall to 22% from 26.7%, Bears rise to 47.7% from 37.0%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 79.27 from 86.82 last week (and down sharp from 2 week ago 98.39 level which was the highest since the 100.7 on 12-17-25 – the 10-29-25 Reading of 100.83 is the 52 week hi – 2025 trough from 4-16-25 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q1) was 82.00 (down from 92.26 in Q4).

The European Central Bank (ECB) said its Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term. In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. ECB raises interest rate on deposit facility to 2.25% vs 2.00%, raises benchmark refinancing rate to 2.40% vs 2.15% and raises interest rate on marginal Lending facility to 2.65% vs 2.40%. The rate hikes were widely expected by Wall Street.

The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% due to the war in the Middle East, and said growth could slow to just 1.3% if energy supply disruptions prove more severe and come with substantial stress in financial markets. Global growth reached 2.9% in 2025, the bank said in its semi-annual Global Economic Prospects, up 0.2 percentage point from its estimate in January. Its 2026 forecast is down 0.1 percentage point from January, the lowest seen since the COVID pandemic that began in late 2019.

• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 229,000 from 225,000 last week and above consensus 219,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 219,000 from 214,750 prior week (previous 214,750) and continued claims climbed to 1.795M from 1.771M prior week (vs. consensus 1.780M).

• OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, a copy of its monthly report showed, marking the second straight downward revision. The producer group continues to see a smaller impact on consumption since the Iran war started than other forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. Both expect demand to decline in 2026.
• August gold prices fell -$19.30, or -0.47%, to settle at $4,114.00, just before futures spiked afterwards as President Trump announced he cancelled scheduled strikes against Iran this evening. Silver prices the same thing as prices fell -$0.74, or -1.14%, at $64.00 an ounce before jumping just minutes after settlement.
• The euro advanced late day and the dollar slipped as President Trump cancelled his attacks on Iran tonight and after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years. U.S. Treasury yields declined on the Iran news late day with the 10-yr falling over 6 bps to 4.48%. Yields had risen earlier after data showed that U.S. producer prices posted their largest annual gain in 3-1/2 years in May. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1% during the month, above economists’ expectations for a 0.7% gain.

• In Apparel Retail: OXM reported Q1 EPS beat and in-line revs of $391.4M while trends for Tommy Bahama were solid in Q1 (+MSD% comps) but softened for the total enterprise (especially Lilly Pulitzer) sequentially through the quarter and into early June; low-end of the FY26 EPS guidance was raised, but guided Q2 revs adjusted EPS $1.20-$1.40 below consensus $1.46 and sees Q2 revenue $380M-$400M vs. est. $413.86M. VRA rises on results as Q1 revs rose 7.8% y/y to $55.7M, topping est. $49.1M while gross margin expanded and expenses fell, driven by cost optimization and sales mix; SG&A expense fell nearly 15% y/y and affirms year sales view. Online retailer SFIX rises after results for EPS, revs and guidance top consensus.

• Builders/Building Products: homebuilders DHI, BZH, PHM all up over 4% along with LEN (ahead of earnings tonight) in homebuilders as bonds rise/yields fall; BMO Capital said latest channel checks on composite decking were incrementally more constructive versus early April, with Q2 underlying sell-through tracking up ~5–6% Y/y. Feedback suggests demand has been better than expected, supporting Selective restocking activity in the channel. Inventory appears below normal at roughly 60–70 days, reflecting a cautious winter early-buy posture. On pricing, AZEK has recently announced an MSD increase, while TREX has not yet moved, channel participants generally expect some form of pricing response, the firm said.

• Travel & Leisure: shares of airlines AAL, DAL, UAL, JBLU, ALK, cruise lines CCL, RCL, NCLH, VIK and online travel names ABNB, BKNG, EXPE, benefitted from a sharp drop in oil prices late day after President Trump announced he cancelled tonight’s attacks on Iran,

• In Solar: UBS raised its tgt on FSLR to $330 from $290 and maintain Buy saying the upcoming Section 232 solar tariff determination will drive a series of positive catalysts for FSLR. First, announcement of the tariffs levels, possibly by the end of June. Second, order announcements as soon as 2Q26 results in late July. Third, 2028+ upward consensus earnings revisions post-2Q26 results if Section 232 drives higher ASPs.
• In Power and E&C sector: ETN entered into a definitive agreement with DAN under which Eaton will separate and combine its Mobility Group with Dana in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction creating a combined company valued at over $10B. GNRC price tgt raised to $335 from $305 at UBS reflecting greater confidence in the durability and visibility of GNRC’s earnings trajectory. While investors increasingly recognize GNRC’s exposure to data center demand, UBS believes the pace at which accelerating C&I growth can reshape the company’s earnings profile remains underappreciated.

• Mortgage related stocks/lenders ZG, UWMC, OPEN, PFSI, remains weak; GOOGL said today Following a limited pilot, they’re now rolling out richer Local Services Ads for Home Listings across all 50 U.S. States. As buyers look for homes, this expanded format surfaces relevant property details — such as pricing, images and core home features — powered by a partnership with HouseCanary’s Rich data platform. Buyers can then call, message or book an appointment with a local agent right from the Ad.
• Brokers & Exchanges: CME was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Redburn which also downgraded MKTX to Neutral saying the transatlantic exchanges have historically been viewed as a homogenous group. Redburn challenges this view by highlighting the individual differences driven by varied capital deployment strategies. Redburn’s analysis includes a deep dive into asset class exposures and volume growth outlooks through 2030, and an exploration of the opportunities from the emerging themes of retail trading, prediction markets and Blockchain infrastructure and tokenization. Redburn maintain Buy on ICE, NDAQ and Neutral CBOE.
• In Payments: GPN shares hit more than 10-year lows today as the payments sector remains pressured. Susquehanna clarified comments in the payments space that weighed on the sector last week. The firm noted for GPN after they published last week and lowered estimates to what it stated was 3.2% Q2 ’26 growth. The firm said upon further examination, its revised revenue B>growth expectation for Q2 ’26 is consistent with management’s guidance of 3.5%. Recall that management had said repeatedly the 4.5% guidance for Q2 ’26 could be burdened by 100 bps of Middle East travel headwinds.

• In Healthcare REITs: DOC was downgraded to Equal Weight and ARE to Underweight at Morgan Stanley as visibility on lab recovery limited. The firm said operating leverage, Shop investments, and Lab recovery drive 2027 estimates across Healthcare REITs. Q126 NIC Senior housing trends accelerated with stabilized occ at 90.1% (+180bps YoY vs +170bps YoY in Q4) & Rent growth +4.6% YoY vs +4.4% YoY in Q4.

• CRSP was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley (tgt to $60 from $33) as looks for improved visibility on the Casgevy launch and pipeline value to emerge, adding that it sees a potential for inflection with greater visibility to revenue recognition and gentler conditioning.
• ELVN said its experimental chronic myeloid leukemia drug called ELVN-001 induced major molecular responses in nearly half of heavily pretreated patients in an ongoing Phase 1 study; Says 61% of patients in key group saw major disease reduction; ~50% achieved this within 24 weeks.
• MRK said its Animal Health unit announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire TARGAN, a privately held innovator in developing and commercializing biodevice solutions to improve performance outcomes for the poultry industry, for an undisclosed purchase price.
• NVS said an experimental therapy for FSHD, a rare neuromuscular disorder, achieved the main biomarker endpoint in a mid-stage study.
• SMMT pulled a proposed $500 million stock offering "due to market conditions."
• TAK said its experimental pill for psoriasis beat an approved pill from BMY in a head-to-head clinical trial.

• In Defense sector: GD was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies noting the company’s marine segment, which represents 33% of sales, has grown double digits in 11 of the past 13 quarters, and says the U.S. Navy shipbuilding plan provides $125B in submarine procurement in fiscal 2027 through 2031 plus $6.2B for the submarine industrial base and $7.2B for submarine productivity. Defense and drone names in focus as AVAV, UMAC, ONDS, RCAT, HAWK, DPRO rise; VSAT wins a U.S. Space Force SATCOM contract.

• Papers & Packaging: GEF announced a $60/ton price increase for all grades of URB products effective July 6 and a minimum 6.5% increase on all tube and core and protective packaging products effective July 13. Overall Truist believes this is positive for GEF and SON The firm also noted on PKG, Vol Strong; 2nd price increase being implemented; Q2 could be soft on Cost/Inventory as depends on June; says add on Weakness. Separately, UBS noted PKG presented at a conference yesterday and noted that it could miss the 2Q EPS guide ($2.33, consensus at $2.36, UBSe at $2.38) saying the main culprits were $10-12M of higher freight and OCC costs (-$0.09), and another $0.03 $0.04 impact from lower outside sales/exports.
• In Chemicals: TROX was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Truist with an unchanged price target of $7 saying current share levels appropriately balance the company’s potential near-term positives, namely improved TiO2 pricing dynamics and potential for share gains, with its significant downside risks from margin pressure and potential for demand stagnation or destruction. In Nitrogen space (CF, NTR), @JavierBlas noted on X, “the drop in nitrogen fertilizer prices has now extended into Asia. India has received offers for its latest urea tender at an average price of $530 per tonne, down ~44% from $947 per tonne in April.”

• Crusoe (private AI infrastructure/data center developer) has paused development on Project Jade, its massive 1.8 GW (scalable to 10 GW) AI data center campus in Cheyenne, Wyoming, in partnership with Tallgrass Energy. This happened at the request of an undisclosed customer (the likely tenant/hyperscaler), with Crusoe demobilizing from the site months ago. The Wyoming project reportedly involved BE fuel cells for ~900 MW behind-the-meter power.
• The Information reported AI firm Anthropic is planning to lease and manage its own data centers and is seeking financial backing from GOOGL’s Google for the lease payments. Anthropic, the creator of the Claude Code AI assistant, has signed more than a dozen preliminary agreements to lease U.S. data centers with a combined capacity of more than 1 GW, The Information reported, citing sources with direct knowledge of the plans. The AI startup’s executives have also discussed an arrangement under which backer Google, which co-designs some of the server chips Anthropic could use in the facilities, would provide a financial guarantee for its payments.
• OpenAI has agreed to acquire Ona, a startup that offers cloud services to support artificial intelligence agents, part of a bid by the AI developer to make its technology more useful for businesses, per Bloomberg.

• Other software: Software stocks remain in downtrend n June as the IGV falls an 8^th straight day ($90.50 today after highs $108.06 on 6/1), with hefty declines in MSFT, ORCL weighing today; shares of HUBS fell for an 8^th straight day while ADBE falls to lowest levels since January 2019 in another software rout. NAVN shares jumped on results and guidance as posted strong Q1 results as GTV grew >50% Y/Y, and revenue growth accelerated again to 39.9% while gross margin was up 320bp Y/Y driven by the continued mix shift and higher Ava usage and raises FY27 revenue view to $907M-$913M from $866M-$874M. SE’s Shopee is cutting hundreds of developer jobs globally, affecting roles such as quality assurance, with the reductions amounting to about 8% of Shopee’s developer workforce, Bloomberg reported.
• IT Servies & Consulting: DXC announces multi-year partnership with Anthropic to bring Claude models into the IT infrastructure it operates for banks, airlines, manufacturers and government agencies. Initial focus areas of the alliance include insurance, code modernization, cybersecurity and managing enterprise apps.
• Hardware & Components: DELL filed a shelf registration with the SEC to issue debt securities in the future, though no size was disclosed in the filing; IBM and NOW expand enterprise AI partnership; RBRK launches Agent Cloud for Claude agents.