Market Review: June 12, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, June 12, 2026

Following yesterday’s nice rebound on Trump’s cancellation of new military strikes on Iran and positive comments on a settlement, US equities held some momentum with a modest overnight gain. Trump’s very bullish comments on resolving the US/Iran stalemate continued to be met with decidedly mixed commentary out of Iran on pretty much all items: agreed to terms, not agreed to terms, will restore Hormuz shipping to regular levels, will not restore to pre-war level, etc. And, right on cue, a new headline indicating an informed source in Iran says the claim of signing an agreement Sunday in Geneva is, “pure falsehood.” And futures were back to flattish. A brief early slide had stocks waffling between red and green and by mid-morning breadth favored advancers by 10:7 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+0.87%) versus SPY (-0.01%) and QQQ (-0.30%). Early sector performance saw Energy (+1.64%), Materials (+1.31%) and Financials (+1.14%) outperforming while Health Care (-0.31%), Communications (-0.61%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.01%) paced the underperformers with 8 sectors gaining versus 3 declining. In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index remained in Fear territory at 33/100 versus last week’s 41 (Fear), but down from last month’s 65 (Greed). Attention most of the day in the media was surrounded around SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, which priced its 555M share IPO at $135 before opening at $150 and traded higher with best levels $176.52 before settling around $161.

Incrementally positive US/Iran deal headlines supported extended gains in US equities into early afternoon as the US perspective was text was in place that both Iran and the US like. For the first time in a while, later headlines out of Iran were not totally contradictory and futures held gains heading into the final hour of trading for the week. Resolution over the weekend probably would not be shocking enough to drive equities significantly higher but certainly would be welcomed and would shift market focus back to more mundane issues like inflation, the Fed and earnings growth without the daily back-and-forth Iran headlines.

• Trump’s comments on cancelling Iran strikes and a possible agreement were enough to push oil lower yesterday, and oil investors continued to believe we are closer to an end of the conflict as WTI crude futures faded further overnight. Interestingly, despite early rebuttal comments about no agreement getting signed this weekend, and equity futures retreating early as well, oil didn’t see much reversal early. An array of incrementally positive (for a deal) comments and headlines boosted hopes the conflict could be resolved soon and pushed oil even lower by early afternoon and again later in the day. July WTI crude settled -$2.83/bbl, or -3.23%, at $84.88.

• Mortgage Services: ZG, RKT, OPEN shares fell Thursday and active again today a day after GOOGL announced it would launch Local Service Ads for Home Listings across the US on mobile, whereby potential homebuyers can see active listings on Google mobile search, and agents can pay Google for lead generation as well as listing promotion.
• Home Improvement/Furnishing: RH posted a top and bottom line beat as Q1 EPS loss less than expected while noting net revenues were negatively impacted by approximately $45M due to higher backorder and special order balances and the co raised the low end of its 2026 guidance.

• In Utility: Power stocks active after The Trump administration declared a power emergency in the southeastern US due to forecasted dangerous heat that may stress power grids. An emergency order allows DUK to operate power plants at maximum output levels and exceed certain air pollution limits to boost generation. The National Weather Service warned of heat waves from South Carolina to Maine through Friday amid high humidity and hot weather in the Mid-Atlantic.

• Exchanges: MKTX upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Bank America with $170 PT with valuation sliding to an all-time low 14x while headwinds are abating; noted MKTX was the first mover in corporate bond Electronic trading but has been ceding market share to more innovative new entrants (Tradeweb, Trumid). As a percentage of US corporate bond e-trading, their share has declined to 33% from 57% over 5Y.
• Business Development Co (BDC): Wells Fargo downgraded shares of ARCC and KBDC to Equal Weight from Overweight and NCDL cut to Underweight. ARCC cut as sees limited upside on its 0.97x NAV valuation and faces potential headwinds on negative outcomes within its "Big 3" credits including Symplr; KBDC cut as sees limited upside on its 0.89x NAV valuation and NCDL falls despite its more median valuation of 0.7.
• Financial Services: FA will replace KW in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, June 16. A consortium led by KW’s CEO with Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSE: FFH) is acquiring Kennedy-Wilson Holdings in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.

• MBX said its experimental once-weekly drug, canvuparatide, showed sustained benefit in patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism; shares fell as in a one-year open-label extension study, 57% of patients met the main response criteria, compared with 63% response rate seen at 12 weeks in a mid-stage trial while Barclays noted investor expectations were for 79% response rate seen at 6-mo

• KTOS was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan while lower PT to $82 from $99 saying growth remains the long-term focus in Defense and the outlook for Kratos on this front remains compelling, with margin rate expanding as well. Recent wins and an expanding opportunity set increase JPMC’s confidence, with Orbit and Nomad contributing on an inorganic basis.
• RKLB will be included in the Nasdaq 100 effective June 22nd

• Nasdaq 100 changes announced as TER, ALAB, NBIS, CRWV and RKLB all five to be added to the Nasdaq 100 index effective June 22^nd and replacing CHTR, CTSH, INSM, VRSK, and ZS
• In Semis: AMD was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup and raise tgt to $575, up from $460 saying the company’s graphics processing unit (GPU) upside is not fully priced into the shares. MRVL announced that CFO William Meintjes will step down, with Dan Durn appointed as his successor. Dan Durn will come from his current position as CFO at Adobe and brings significant semiconductor industry experience.
• In Robotics: RR shares fell after says multiple prior financial statements require restatement due to errors; says earnings releases and prior audit reports for fy2024 and fy2025 should not be relied upon.
• In Media: ROKU shares jumped after Bloomberg reported the company is in talks to sell itself, people with knowledge of the matter. The streaming video platform company has been in discussions with at least one U.S. media company about a potential combination. No final decisions have been made on a potential sale, and there’s no certainty the deliberations will lead to a transaction.
• In Gaming: a report in The Information as MSFT gets ready to overhaul its struggling Xbox Gaming unit, it hasn’t ruled out spinning out or restructuring the unit as a wholly owned subsidiary, which could make it easier to sell, or creating a Joint venture with other Partners, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. Microsoft doesn’t have any imminent restructuring plans, but those options are on the table, the people said.