Market Review: June 22, 2026

Closing Recap

Monday, June 22, 2026

U.S. stocks opened higher before slumping and giving up early gains as a few factors potentially played on investor sentiment, keeping the S&P, and Nasdaq Comp lower. 1) Large cap tech was mixed as the same names leads each day such as semiconductors (SOX) being higher while larger cap tech (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT) tumble along with consistent selling in software stocks, extending its gap with semi amid investors’ concerns about AI impact on the group (CRM fell a 14^th straight day). 2) Treasury yields jumped further, especially at short end (2-yr) while the 10-yr moved back above 4.5% after last week’s hawkish FOMC meeting and the dollar climbed. 3) a note that could have weighed on sentiment today included that Global hedge fund leverage sits near multi-year highs. JPMorgan estimates that quarter-end rebalancing could trigger a $165 billion stock selloff before June ends, raising the risk of sharp moves in crowded technology trades. 4) back to large cap tech/hyperscalers, latest AI related debt bond offerings from AMZN ($68B), GOOGL ($32B), META ($25B), NVDA ($25B) and ORCL $25B) adds to capex spending concerns hitting the names. Smallcaps had a good showing with the Russell 200 index hitting all-time highs along with gains in the Dow.

Oil prices retreated further and the Dow industrials advanced after Vice President JD Vance said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, marking progress on an issue key to bringing the war to a permanent end. The news adds to earlier investor optimism around peace talks between the two countries, even though negotiations got off to a rocky start this weekend after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. In Iran news, the U.S. Treasury approved a temporary waiver allowing Iran to sell crude oil, petrochemicals, and Petroleum products in dollars through Aug. 21, 2026. The move Marks a major shift in sanctions policy as Washington and Tehran negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz, Nuclear inspections, and broader sanctions relief. The waiver could provide Iran greater access to foreign currency and oil revenues

Bank of America said it expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, shifting from its prior view of no changes. The bank cites stronger economic data and a more hawkish Fed tone focused on inflation under new chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are pricing higher yields, though most investors still expect fewer hikes.” Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from 25%, citing easing geopolitical risk after a peace agreement with Iran. The bank says lower energy prices and an improving labor market support the downgrade. The new estimate is also below its pre-war 20% recession view.”

• U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the board, though interest-rate-sensitive 2-year yields jumped further, touching a 16-month high following a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook last week and the prospect of rate hikes later this year. In an early sign of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s influence, the Fed’s statement last week was also stripped of any forward guidance on future rate moves and simply stated the rate decision and reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to maintaining "ample reserves in the banking system." Bank of America now expects three Fed rate hikes this year, reversing its prior forecast of no change. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 73% odds of a rate hike by September. The 2-year note yield rose 3.6 bps to 4.215% and reached 4.236%, the highest since February 2025 and 10-yr tops 4.5%.
• August gold settles -$43.20/oz, or -1.02%, down at $4,202.70 while July silver settles -$0.74/oz, or -1.11%, at $65.58 an ounce as precious metals decline on a surging dollar and rising Treasury yields post FOMC meeting last week. WTI crude oil fell -$1.78 or 2.32% to settle at $74.82 per barrel, while new front month August WTI crude oil futures fell -$1.99 or 2.62% to settle at $73.86 per barrel.

• In Casino & Gaming: MLCO was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying while Macau stocks "look cheap," estimate revisions remain negative, and despite Melco Resorts’ inexpensive valuation, it sees negative estimate revisions continuing. The firm upgraded MGM China to OW and remain OW on Wynn Macau, reflecting strong EBITDA seen for 2Q, share gains, and high dividend yields. BYD was initiated Buy and $100 PT at Benchmark as the firm said they believe Boyd offers investors a compelling combination of durable regional Gaming cash flows, significant capital return potential, one of the largest Las Vegas locals’ portfolios in the public market, and multiple embedded growth opportunities.
• Leisure/media: DIS Toy Story 5 Opening: Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 opened to $160M domestically and $312M globally, making it the largest opening weekend of 2026, the biggest debut in franchise history, and the second-largest animated opening weekend ever behind only Incredibles 2. For IMAX, the film generated $18.4M globally, representing IMAX’s fifth-largest global three-day opening weekend ever for an animated title. For movie theatres (AMC, CNK), Benchmark is raising their Q2 domestic box office forecast to +8% y/y growth from +5% following a stronger-than-expected opening from Toy Story 5.

• Alt Energy: in solar, ENPH entered a tax credit transfer agreement to sell up to $150M of advanced manufacturing production tax credits generated in 2026, per an SEC filing. NXT entered an agreement to buy Zimmermann PV-Steel Group for roughly 330 million euros, or about $378.6M, expanding its solar-technology portfolio with new products and geographies; FRVO, NVDA, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory announced a partnership to develop EGS-Twin, an AI-powered digital twin platform for enhanced geothermal systems.
• Oil Equipment & Services: APA, COP, FANG, MGY, MTDR, PR, and SM all upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Roth Capital saying they think oil prices are close to a near-term bottom with a potential Iran ceasefire seeming tenuous. Roth doesn’t see lasting damage to key Middle East oil infrastructure, and it expects more oil can start transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but it thinks this is priced in. All of these stocks have been down roughly 15-22% since the war started on February 28 and are well below 52-week highs. OVV was upgraded to Overweight and $180 PT at Wels Fargo saying with portfolio transformation now complete, OVV is shifting to delivery, supported by deep inventory & strong execution. The firm sees a more durable FCF profile not fully reflected in valuation, W/ shares trading at a discount to peers.

• DFTX said DT120, an experimental oral drug for major depressive disorder, met main goal in late-stage study; says patients showed 8.1-point greater improvement in depression scores vs placebo after six weeks; says benefit seen within one week and remained significant at 12 weeks.
• INCY said it settled dispute with U.S. government over Medicaid rebates tied to Opzelura, co’s skin cream for inflammatory conditions; said authorities will not treat Opzelura as linked to blood disorder drug Jakafi, avoiding higher rebate payments; to record one-time, non-cash gain of about $246 mln in Q2 from reversing earlier charges.
• MLTX said a late-stage trial of its treatment for moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa showed consistent and further improvement in all clinical scores at 52 weeks, compared with an earlier readout at 16 weeks; said the data supports the treatment’s, sonelokimab, potential best-in-class and best-in-disease profile.
• MRK said its experimental drug tulisokibart succeeded in a Phase 3 ulcerative colitis trial and that it would share the results with regulators. The company is testing the immunology drug in seven diseases.
• MRNA shares tumbled, snapping a six-day winning streak to become one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 after surging last week as an FDA committee unanimously voted that the benefits of Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine outweighed the risks in patients aged 50 and older. The rally began in earnest on June 11 after Moderna was cleared to launch a U.K. study of its mRNA-based vaccine for patients with Lynch Syndrome.
• RGNX WSJ said citing company that the FDA has agreed to reverse its rejection of Regenxbio’s experimental Gene therapy for a rare and fatal brain disease. Regenxbio plans to refile its application seeking approval of its Navsunli Gene therapy in Q3, after it holds a formal meeting to resolve disputes with the FDA that is expected in July.
• TCRX announces positive initial data from cohort C of ongoing ALLOHA phase 1 study evaluating TSC-101 in patients with heme malignancies undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation.

• In Housing/Building Products: CRH agreed to acquire ACA in an all-cash deal valuing the infrastructure-related products provider at about $8.5 billion with CRH offering $150 per share for Arcosa, representing a 10.4% premium to Friday’s close. ZG shares fell to fresh 52-week lows while Benchmark Securities pushed back on the growing bear case around Zillow, arguing the current battle with Compass, MLSs, and Google is ultimately a fight over listings, while Zillow’s true advantage remains consumer demand and engagement. The firm believes investors are overstating the risk from MLS feed disputes and Google’s expanding real-estate search products, noting there is little evidence consumers are abandoning Zillow’s position as the primary starting point for home search
• Aerospace: SPCX said on Monday it launched an offering of senior unsecured notes and disclosed that it held about $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19; shares tumbled more than 16% below $155 (still above $135 IPO pricing and opening IPO price of $150, but down from highs around $230 last week and weighed on space stocks ASTS, VOYG, PL, YSS). BWXT was upgraded to Buy from neutral at Seaport Global noting the co enjoyed a strong Q126 financial performance and 2026 guidance was raised for adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow.
• Defense sector: ONDS sees offering of 6.1M shares of common stock offered by selling stockholders, per filing this morning. Defense stocks LMT, NOC, GD, RTX dropped, hurt at least in part by a report that President Trump has asked prime contractors and Pentagon officials to the White House on Wednesday to discussion shortages of U.S. munitions. The meeting was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

• Paper & Packaging: Wells Fargo noted Containerboard up $50/ton in June (+$100 YTD) on tight supply, elevated costs and slight demand uptick. Boxboard held flat, W/ URB leading on snug S/D and July +$60/ton hikes underway. Other grades mixed (SBS improving; CRB softer), limiting NT realization. Downstream box demand remains mixed, while containerboard supply has tightened meaningfully, with mill backlogs extending to 5-8 weeks from ~5 weeks last month. Wells says the update a positive for IP, PKG, and SW while GPK could lag on lack of price recognition.
• Metals & Mining: CLF was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $12.50 price target, saying a supply-driven rally in U.S. steel prices is nearing its peak and that much of the benefit from elevated prices is already reflected in the stock price (notes shares had a ~50% rally since early April has left a more balanced risk-reward profile).

• Optical stocks (AAOI, LITE, CIEN, COHR, GLW) advanced after FundaAI argues investor concerns around new Chinese laser and optical-component capacity are misplaced, as the real value pool for LITE and COHR is shifting toward increasingly complex AI optical architectures rather than mature component manufacturing. The firm believes the industry is rapidly moving from 200G EMLs toward 400G EMLs, UHP lasers, InP PICs, coherent-lite, and CPO/NPO platforms, creating a technology roadmap that favors incumbents with deep customer relationships, qualification history, and system-level co-design capabilities.
• Software movers: CRM shares declined for a 14^th consecutive day as the Dow component tumbles in broad software pullback; PLTR shares hit 52-week lows along with ADSK, BILI, INTU, KC, GWRE, SAP, PEGA, and IGV fell for the 13^th time in last 14 trading days. RBLX shares tumbled after Citigroup noted during the week of June 15th to June 21st, Roblox tracking platform RoMonitor showed a 5% decline in concurrent users (CCUs) year-over-year. “Based on historical averages, we believe quarter-to-date CCU trends are consistent with Q2 2026 bookings of $1.57B. This is slightly below the midpoint of the company’s guidance and a tad below the consensus of $1.60B.
• Online/Internet sector: AMZN is holding its Prime Day sales event this week; GETY shares jumped after announcing a display partnership with OpenAI. The agreement will integrate Getty Images licensed visual content into ChatGPT search and discovery tools, helping power richer visual experiences for users.
• Hardware & Components: DELL rolled out the PowerEdge XE8812 featuring NVDA Vera Rubin NVL4 architecture as part of its AI Factory push for heavy AI and HPC workloads; delivers up to 144 GPUs per rack.

• ASML denies selling EUV chipmaking tool to China after report of US concern (out late Thursday)
• MU signed a strategic agreement with Anthropic covering AI memory/storage architecture design, multi-year supply, Claude enterprise adoption, and an investment in Anthropic’s Series H round. Micron will supply data center memory and storage products, including HBM, DRAM and SSDs.
• NVDA launched Halos for Robotics, a full-stack safety system for robotics and physical AI. Agility is the first company integrating parts of Halos into its safety architecture for Digit, its humanoid robot used in logistics, manufacturing and warehouses.
• SMCI delivers NVDA’s Vera Rubin NVL4 end-to-end DCBBS blueprint with native FP64 performance for converged HPC and AI Infrastructure; was also upgraded to Buy from Hold at GF Securities with $48 tgt.
• TER announced a strategic collaboration with Vention to speed up deployment of modular automation work cells built around Universal Robots cobots and Vention’s MachineBuilder software.