Market Review: June 26, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, June 26, 2026

Friday started off weak, with tech leading markets lower overnight on reports that OpenAI is seriously considering holding off its initial public offering until 2027, due in part to concerns over investor sentiment, in a little hit to AI sentiment. However, investors stepped in this morning in another “buy the dip” moment, as major averages rebound from morning lows to finish higher. The Nasdaq posted a more than 400 point bounce off its morning lows, the S&P 500 with a 100-point bounce off lows (of 7,294) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 52,000. Markets remained choppy this afternoon ahead of the largest semi-annual Russell index rebalance ever as The FTSE Russell indices rebalance will impact $6 trillion of active and passive assets under management benchmarked to the major Russell indices. The event will result in lots of companies moving between indexes. Most notably, SpaceX is among those set to be added to the Russell 1000. Updated indices will go live Monday. Overall, 43 companies are expected to graduate from the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks to the Russell 1000 large-cap index.

In other news, markets appeared unphased after U.S. President Trump midday threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods from any country that imposes a digital services tax on American companies. Trump said in a social media post that the new tariff would supersede any trade deals with the U.S. Also, President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire agreement with the United States by launching attack drones at ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including a cargo vessel that was struck off the coast of Oman on Thursday. Neither of these events mattered for markets today. This morning the SPY traded below its 50dma support while the QQQs neared its 50dma around $702.75 but bounced notably off lows. Other concerns remain inflation and rate hikes after data Thursday showed U.S. inflation (PCE) rose above 4% in May for the first time in three years, boosted by higher energy prices, keeping the possibility of a Fed rate hike alive.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final June 4.6% vs prelim 4.6% and final May 4.8% while 5-year inflation outlook final June 3.3% vs prelim 3.4% and final May 3.9%.

• Oil prices finished the day and week notably lower with WTI crude falling -$2.69 or 3.74% to settle at $69.23 per barrel and Brent crude dropped -$3.27 or 4.34% to settle at $71.99 per barrel. The U.S. dollar fell for a second straight session on Friday as recent economic data and a drop in oil prices slightly cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes but posted its 2^nd straight weekly advance. Treasury yields slipped further, down 15bps for the 10-yr since the FOMC policy meeting last week where Kevin Warsh took the helm for the first time.

• Beverage sector: TD Cowen said believes the market is overstating alcohol’s structural bear case. TDCowen’s analysis of historical consumption patterns, demographic trends, and macro data indicates recent weakness is largely cyclical, reflecting post-pandemic normalization and affordability constraints. With valuations already baking in structural concerns, even modest volume stabilization could support upside for alcohol stocks. The firm upgraded DEO to Buy (in assumption of coverage) saying valuation dislocation creates an attractive entry, with CEO-led cost cuts and reinvestment expected to restore growth and improve commercial execution.

• In casino & Gaming: DKNG Launches proprietary prediction markets exchange DKeX; DraftKings Predictions generated ~$3.4B annualized consumer volume and $11.3B in annualized total trading volume for the week ended June 21. Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on gaming stocks with Buy ratings on PENN and RRR and a Neutral rating on BYD, seeing a sector inflection driven by easing supply headwinds, improving earnings revisions, and M&A activity providing valuation support. The firm favors PENN for near-term catalyst-driven upside and RRR for a 2027 earnings inflection tied to LVL exposure, while BYD remains more of a longer-dated story with limited near-term catalysts.

• In Aerospace: SPCX told investors that it plans to launch a new Starlink mobile service for U.S. consumers, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. SpaceX president and COO Gwynne Shotwell told investors during an IPO roadshow that the group was considering launching a Starlink retail product. The company could build its own terrestrial US mobile network. The move would require Starlink to sell mobile contracts to individual customers. RKLB shares bounced after NASA selected Rocket Lab to provide the launch service for both the agency’s PolSIR (Polarized Submillimeter Ice-cloud Radiometer) and Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-2 (TSIS-2) missions.
• In Defense: RTX said it has been awarded a $1.1 billion contract from the U.S. Navy to produce AIM-9X Block II missiles. BA announced China Southern airlines cargo subsidiary buys seven Boeing jets; AER delivers first of three new Airbus A321neo jets to Azerbaijan Airlines. The handover follows a 2024 program covering three A321neo Aircraft, three A320neo Aircraft.

• In Crypto: MSTR was on track for its lowest level in more than two years. The stock slumped about 8% Thursday and comes into Friday with a seven-day losing streak, its worst seven-day losing streak since November 2022.
• In REITs, shares of EQR, AVB, VNO, ESRT, SLG were active after a New York City panel voted on Thursday to freeze rents for nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments, fulfilling one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s key campaign promises and handing the mayor a major policy win six months into his tenure.
• In research: AMH was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at BMO Capital saying although political uncertainty remains with the 21st Century Road to Housing Act in limbo, BMO is heartened initial worst case regulatory scenarios appear off the table with bipartisan support largely maintaining the status quo and allowing build-for-rent. COLD was upgraded from In Line to Outperform at Evercore and increasing its price target from $17 to $18, implying an attractive total return potential of >25%. ESS was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Raymond James as views ESS as the biggest residential beneficiary of the extraordinary boom currently being felt across the San Francisco Bay Area economy (with 40% of its NOI derived from the Northern California).

• ACAD rises after EU panel for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency has adopted a positive opinion following a Re-examination procedure on its marketing application for Daybu for the treatment of neurobehavioral symptoms of Rett syndrome, following its recent CHMP oral explanation.
• ALNY hosted a webinar on ALN-6400, which targets plasminogen to stabilize blood clots and provide durable, prophylactic bleeding control across disorders, ahead of the full Phase 1 healthy volunteers and initial Phase 2 hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HTT) data in 2H.
• AMGN said the European Medicines Agency recommended revoking the marketing authorization for Amgen’s rare autoimmune disease drug, Tavneos, citing a lack of benefits that outweigh its risks.
• CAPR shares fell after the U.S. FDA scheduled an advisory committee meeting to discuss the company’s marketing application for Deramiocel, a treatment targeting Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• OMER shares fell after saying the European Medicines Agency’s key panel issued a negative opinion on its application for its drug narsoplimab to treat transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA); OMER to request a re-examination of the opinion and review by an independent expert group.
• President Trump nominated Chris Klomp as the deputy secretary of HHS, elevating him from head of Medicare at CMS. Klomp has been an important figure for the healthcare investment community given his role in the drug pricing deals with pharma and then the Medicare Advantage rate process.

• Telecom & Towers: TMUS, VZ, T and SPCX were among the big winners in the FCC’s AWS-3 wireless auction that pulled in over $3.5 billion for 200 mid-band licenses—the first spectrum sale in four years. AMT was upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform at RBC Capital saying despite headwinds from rising interest rate expectations and the apparent unwind of the LEO bull thesis, they upgraded based on Superior organic revenue growth vs peers and favorable trends at CoreSite, for which it now assigns a higher target multiple (25x vs previous 21x). Keybanc noted that concerns surrounding SPCX competition are largely overblown as Starlink is not competitive today with Terrestrial alternatives, and subscriber growth is not inflecting where key developments need to occur before the service is a true competitor. As such, they think the pullback in T looks highly attractive.

• Gaming Software: Wedbush noted for RBLX, both headline Engagement metrics improved WoW but remained negative. Weekly CCU growth ticked up to –9% YoY from –11% the prior week, while average weekly DAU growth rose to –3% from –5%. With CCUs still contracting faster than DAUs on the comp, the CCU/DAU ratio has held near summer ’25 lows, leaving per-user Engagement Intensity yet to Re-inflect.

• In memory chip sector, Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to unveil large-scale spending plans next week, including initiatives aimed at expanding memory supply, Reuters reported last night. Samsung is reportedly preparing a ~$720B capex blueprint over the next decade, while don’t forget SK Hynix has already outlined roughly $30B of incremental memory capacity investment. The bulls will say none of it can come fast enough amid insatiable demand while Bears says every new capacity announcement raises the question of whether the industry is overbuilding and making AI even more capital intensive and straining ROIC.