Closing Recap
Monday, November 02, 2026
|
Index |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
|
DJ Industrials |
216.74 |
0.42% |
51,987 |
|
S&P 500 |
-38.20 |
0.50% |
7,541 |
|
Nasdaq |
-272.68 |
1.07% |
25,164 |
|
Russell 2000 |
-6.00 |
0.21% |
2,805 |
What initially looked like a promising start to the new trading month, U.S. stock markets pulled back off morning highs above 1% for most averages, as technology (XLK, SOX, QQQ) failed to hold the early gains amid another rout in semis and Ai related plays, continuing the October trend. Still, overall market breadth was positive with 8 of 11 S&P sectors higher, led by the names that rallied in October (Consumer Staples, REITs, Utilities, Financials). Technology (XLK -2.95%) and Energy (XLE -3.96%) were the biggest drags. Precious metals were a bright spot, bouncing off 1-year lows for gold and silver amid the pullback in oil prices. While tech remains the key overall market driver lower, attention turns this week to tomorrow’s midterm elections where Democrats are expected to flip the House Blue, while the Senate remains a toss up at this point, though prediction markets are forecasting a flip to Blue as well. Monthly jobs data also in focus with ADP private payrolls, JOLTs job openings and Nonfarm payrolls on the calendar this week. Tonight after the bell we see earnings from Apple Inc. (AAPL), coming off recent all-time highs before a heavy earnings calendar the remainder of the week with 29% of the S&P 500 due to report. The amazing part on this latest tech pullback comes as Treasury yields have come down notably from early October highs and oil prices a sharp downturn today.
Economic Data
- October S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 vs. initial estimate of 56.0 and September’s 55.9, according to data released.
- ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 55.5 in October (consensus 54.5) vs 54.5 in September; prices paid index 75.2 in October vs 77.9 (consensus 77.5) in September; new orders index 55.5 in October vs 55.3 in September and employment index 52.4 in October (consensus 52.0) vs 52.7 in September
- September construction spending -1.9% (consensus +0.3%); US Sept construction spending -1.9% (consensus +0.3%) to $2.186 trln, vs Aug +2.0% (prev +0.9%); US Sept private construction spending -2.4%, public spending -0.1%.
Commodities
- Oil prices tumbled on Monday, with WTI crude falling -$7.66 or 7.36% to settle at $96.46 per barrel and Brent crumbled -$8.66 or 7.63% to settle at $104.77 per barrel on rising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in Middle East peace talks. The sharp declines come after state-run news agency IRNA reported that Iran’s supreme leader gave the government certain powers to pursue negotiations. The move also comes a day before midterm elections.
- Gold prices rose $70.70 or 1.81% to settle at $3,969.60 an ounce, rebounding from a one-year low hit in the previous session, supported by a retreat in oil prices that tempered inflation worries, while investors awaited US midterm elections tomorrow. Silver prices rose $1.61 or 3.27% to settle at $50.89 an ounce. Oil prices fell more than 6% on Monday after Iran and Qatar held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Traders see a 77% chance of a US rate hike in December, down from 80% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Currencies & Treasuries
- U.S. Treasury yields fall to lowest levels since Sept 10; yield on 10-year Treasury note hit lows around 4.87% before ending down -3.5bps to 4.893% (down over 15bps the last 3 days); the 2-yr yield rises slightly to 4.581% ending a streak of three straight down yield days and the 30-yr yield falls -4.1bps to 5.268%, off about 40bps from its 52-week high 5.664% on 10/5.
- The U.S. dollar eased as oil prices plunged and Treasury yields retreated ahead of a week full of catalysts, including the US midterm elections, a host of data on the US labor market and multiple central bank rate decisions. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.22% to 101.76 after declining to 101.42, its lowest since September 30.
|
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
|
WTI Crude |
-7.66 |
96.46 |
|
Brent |
-8.66 |
104.77 |
|
Gold |
70.70 |
3,969.60 |
|
EUR/USD |
0.0034 |
1.1191 |
|
JPY/USD |
0.42 |
157.93 |
|
10-Year Note |
-0.035 |
4.893% |
Sector News Breakdown
Retail, Consumer Staples & Restaurants:
- Consumer Producst sector: in beauty space, EL Q1 net sales $3.72B vs. est. $3.65B and adj EPS $0.72 vs. est. $0.51; raises FY27 adj EPS view to $3.20-$3.45 from $3.10-$3.35 (est. $3.33) and raises adj operating margin to range between 12.9%-13.7%, from its prior view of 12.7%-13.5%.
- Retail sector: NXH shares bounced after tZERO proposed business combination advances opportunity to scale regulated digital-asset infrastructure; NXH signs support agreement.
- Building Product sector: FND was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and cuts PT to $38, as persistent housing pressure, slowing comps, and higher supply-chain costs limit the near-term earnings outlook. While the upcoming Pro loyalty program and longer-term store opportunity remain positives, expects housing turnover to stay pressured in FY27.
- Homebuilder stocks DHI, KBH, LEN, MTH, PHM, TOL advanced along with related mortgage names as Treasury yields extend recent pullbacks.
Autos, Leisure, Gaming & Lodging:
- Lodging sector: CHH beat top and bottom line estimates for Q3 while lowers full-year 2026 net Income outlook to $178M-$185M from $230M-$241M; raises full-year 2026 global RevPAR growth forecast to 1.5%-2.5% from 0%-1% and raises full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $641M-$651M from $635M-$650; MAR raised its full-year room revenue growth forecast as expects 2026 revenue per available room (RevPAR) to grow between 4.5% and 5%, compared with its prior forecast of a 3% to 3.5% increase. HGV was downgraded to Market Perform at Citizens after the company reported Q326 results that show continued weakness in its core business, while they lowered their full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $72.5mm at the midpoint.
- Auto sector: RIVN was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS with $17 tgt as sees the recent selloff (-19% over the past month vs S&P500 -1%) as a buying opportunity ahead of an inflection in R2 ramp and gross margins; EVGO shares jumped after SEC filing shows the company to be acquired by private co LS Power Equity Advisors for $2 per share.
- Chinese Ev sector: monthly delivery data out as LI delivered 29,025 vehicles in October 2026, representing a 43.6% Y/Y decline from 51,443 units in October 2025 and an 8.8% M/M drop from 31,817 units in September 2026; NIO delivered 34,246 electric vehicles in October 2026, representing an 8.4% M/M decline from September’s 37,408 units and fell 15.2% Y/Y, while bringing its cumulative deliveries to 1,332,139 as of October 31. XPEV achieved a new monthly record with total deliveries of 50,237 electric vehicles in October 2026, representing a 22% M/M increase from September and a 20% Y/Y increase. Monthly performance was further bolstered by overseas deliveries, which reached an all-time monthly high of 13,326 units, up 166% Y/Y.
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Solar sector: shares of FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, ARRY, and other solar related names rallied ahead of midterm elections where sector friendly Democrats are expected to take the House; Senate still up in air. Clean energy sector potentially as Reuters notes a strong Democratic showing could reinforce expectations that federal support for clean-energy development will remain in place. The Democratic-controlled Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, devoting hundreds of billions to climate and energy-security measures.
- Space sector: SPCX is reportedly in talks with ECHO over a potential acquisition of Boost Mobile or a deal to use its wireless network, as Elon Musk looks to launch a full-fledged U.S. cellphone service, the Washington Post reported. Musk previously approached Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) seeking access to their networks, but all three rejected the proposal.
- Material sector: ln lithium space (ALB, SQM, LIT), Citigroup said lithium prices to remain depressed in the near term after spot Lithium prices have fallen 40% since Sep’26, raising the key question of whether correction has run its course. While Citi sees declining salt inventories in China to provide near term support, price upside is likely to be capped. Citi sees little catalyst for a meaningful recovery in downstream activity at current prices.
Financials
- Crypto sector: Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, said customers have pulled a net $4.72B from the platform since withdrawals reopened on Sunday morning after $6.3B was stolen in a major hack last week. COIN was downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley and slashed its tgt to $120 from $258 saying confidence in Coinbase’s earnings recovery has deteriorated as recent trading trends.
- Consumer finance/payments sector: a big week ahead of the space with earnings expected from FISV, BR, TOST, FLYW, XYZ, FIS, JKHY, WU, CPAY, GPN, LSPD, FOUR, VYX, and AFRM all this week; shares of MA and Visa (V) both made new all-time highs today; AXP shares jumped topping its 200dma of $225.95 this morning in strong consumer finance space (COF as well).
Biotech & Pharma:
- ALNY was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist and cut tgt to $225 from $315 saying following the Q3 report, the outlook for Amvuttra has become meaningfully less certain.
- AXSM shares tumbled following Q3 earnings results.
- INO shares surged after the FDA approved its treatment INO-3107 (branded Voceryq) for a rare respiratory condition, marking the company’s first approved product. Inovio expects Voceryq to be available for order and shipment within about 60 days, and commercial launch planned 1Q’27.
- QURE said announced FDA acceptance and priority review for its BLA for ifezuntirgene inilparvovec in Huntington’s Disease, with a 5/1/2027 PDUFA. The FDA is tentatively planning to hold an AdCom for the application.
- TEVA said it was discontinuing its mid-stage neurodegenerative disorder study due to a low probability of the study meeting its main goal if continued. The company was testing its experimental oral drug, emrusolmin, in adults with multiple system atrophy.
- Animal product sector: IDXX shares rose after Q3 top and bottom line beat, mgmt raising FY organic growth to 9.3%-10.0% vs prior guidance 8.5%-9.7%. Q3 EPS $4.01 vs $3.73 est. Q3 revs $1.21B vs $1.19B est. FY EPS guide $14.96-15.16 vs prior guidance $14.69-14.94.
- Precision medicine sector: TEM Q3 revs and adjusted EBITDA slightly above expectations, reaffirms FY adjusted EBITDA guide. Q3 revenue $411.5M vs $409M est. Q3 adj EBITDA $25.6M vs $18.6M est. FY26 rev guide $1.60-1.605B vs prior guidance $1.595-1.605B. Reaffirms adjusted EBITDA.
- Telehealth sector: TDOC was downgraded to Sell and then coverage dropped at Argus as the firm said Teladoc is struggling with challenges in a telemedicine industry that have many companies seeking to provide virtual health services/they forecast operating losses through 2027.
Ai, Internet, Media & Telecom
- AI sector: Anthropic reports Q3 revenue $16.96B vs. $1.38B last year and Q3 operating expenses $17.52B vs. $4.47B last year, while Claude rev $17.0B for three months ended September 30, 2026. OpenAI has dialed back its fundraising ambitions amid the recent slump in tech stocks and is now looking to take in $20B at a $1.25T valuation vs. its original plan of $30B and $1.4T, the Financial Times reported. ORCL shares fell after the company announced it would sell $10 bln in stock and offer $10 bln of bonds and use net proceeds from concurrent offerings for general corporate purposes, including capex, debt paydown, acquisitions, cash dividends on and share repurchases.
- Data Center sector: CIFR shares fell early after Q3 revenue fell y/y as bitcoin mining revenue declined though recognized first HPC lease revenue, marking shift in business strategy; Net profit posted for Q3, driven by non-operating gains; adjusted EBITDA was negative; said expects additional capacity at Black Pearl and other campuses to come online by year-end.
Hardware & Software movers:
- Optical sector volatile following M&A in the sector as MRVL agreed to acquire LITE for implied enterprise value of $115B for Lumentum, representing approximately $1,132 per share. LITE holders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 4.500 shares of Marvell common stock for each share of Lumentum common stock they own. Shares of other optical/photonics related stocks such as AAOI, COHR, CIEN saw notable upside volatility in sympathy initially, but as MRVL shares tumbled throughout the day, the shares of LITE tumbled alongside as the deal is in stock, and took the rest of the optical space lower as well.
- Quantum sector: B Riley lowered prices tgts on IONQ to $75 from $100, QBTS to $27 from $40, RGTI to $25 from $35 and INFQ to $17 from $23 in earnings preview saying ecosystem progress continued, yet shares fell on sector and Ai weakness. IONQ with the first partial SkyWater quarter should show manufacturing, demand, validation, and funding progress, with consensus Q4; QBTS reports in a CFO transition quarter with gate-model and annealing progress in focus and RGTI looks like a trough Q3 ahead of its C-DAC system revenue recognition in Q4.
- Security Software sector: OKTA shares rose after being added to the S&P 500 index this week, replacing KVUE which is being acquired by KMB in a deal expected to be completed soon. CHKP shares slipped after Q3 revs fell -1.1% y/y to $669.8M vs. est. $672M, while security subscriptions revenue rose 11% to $339M. Remaining performance obligations increased 5% to $2.5B. CRWD was upgraded to buy from Hold at Deutsche bank and raised tgt to $300 from $240 as believe investors are still not fully appreciating the extent to which Ai will expand the market for cybersecurity and CrowdStrike’s leadership at the forefront.
Semiconductors:
- The PHLX Semi Index (SOX) were strong early, bounced off morning lows of 10,683 this morning and lows of 10,439 on Friday 10/30, back near its 200dma resistance level of 10,800 as semis a drag led by MRVL after agreeing to acquire LITE in the optical space. However, the index failed again to hold its 200dma support after the initial bounce and fell hitting an afternoon low below 10,400.
- TSEM reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue and forecast fourth-quarter sales above analysts’ estimates, citing strong demand for high-speed connectivity products; expects Q4 revenue of $600M, plus or minus 5%, vs. estimates of about $580M as midpoint of the forecast represents growth of 36% y/y and 14% from the prior quarter.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.