Market Review: October 09, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, October 09, 2026

U.S. stocks rebounded after Thursday’s Tech induced selloff, but rebounded on Friday, closing out the week not far off record highs. Global stock markets edged higher despite US government bond yields ticking higher and oil prices holding above $100 a barrel after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections. Europe closed higher by more than 1% in many markets while the U.S. remains just off all-time highs for the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite into the start of earnings season next week and key inflation data (CPI, PPI). Investors also weighed another wave of fundraising by technology companies while borrowing costs in some of the world’s biggest economies hovered near multi-year highs. The S&P 500 hit a record high of 7,844.52 earlier this week but later eased, as a bond market rout pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since April 2002, 5.3645%, amid inflation concerns, weighing on sentiment. for the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.64%, and the Dow climbed 0.93% (biggest weekly gain since week ended August 7). The Nasdaq marks fourth weekly gain in a row for first time since its 6-week streak that ended on May 8.

Reminder Monday is Columbus Day: the U.S. stock market is open, but bond markets are closed as well as banks so could be a low volume day ahead of Q3 earnings start. In addition to the start of earnings season, next week data dominated by key inflation data with the September consumer price index (CPI) on 10/14 and PPI data on Thursday. Bank earnings next week from Citi, JPM, GS, WFC on Tuesday 10/13, BAC, BLK, MS, STT on Wednesday 10/14, BNY, FHN, PNC, SCHW, USB on Thursday 10/15, and CFG, MTB, RF, TFC, TRV on Friday 10/16.

US large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap funds recorded net outflows of $14.08 billion, $1.03 billion, and $834 million, respectively. Investors, however, made net investments of $5.68 billion in sectoral funds, led by technology, which attracted $4.53 billion. Utilities and industrials drew $1.18 billion and $1.04 billion, respectively. US bond funds recorded a weekly record of $19.78 billion in inflows. US equity funds recorded outflows in the week ended October 7, following two consecutive weeks of inflows. Investors withdrew a net $5.11B from US equity funds during the week in their first weekly net sales since September 16, LSEG Lipper data showed.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 4.7% vs final Sept 4.6% and 5-year inflation outlook prelim Oct 3.5% vs final Sept 3.4%.

• Diesel futures turned lower Friday after President Trump said he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to a deal in which Russia will supply increasing amounts of diesel fuel to the "American and Global Marketplace." Trump made the announcement in a Truth Social post shortly before 3 p.m. ET.
• The euro declined for a 5^th straight week, holding under 1.12 vs. the US dollar and down -1.1% this month and -4.67% YTD as investors worried about France’s record public debt and the difficult political path to budget cuts, vs. a strong looking US economy and currency.
• December gold settles +$59.30/oz, or +1.43%, at $4,216.30 while December silver settles +$1.62/oz, or +2.73%, at $61.05 an ounce.

• Food & Beverages sector: SFD shares fell after Bank America downgraded to Neutral from Buy saying the pork backdrop has worsened, with weak belly and ham demand and lower lean-hog futures reducing expected hog profits against still-elevated feed costs.
• Auto sector: TSLA China-made Electric vehicle sales rose 5% y/y in September, picking up from ‌a 3.6% increase in August, as the company’s sales rebound in Europe continued. Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y ​vehicles built in its Shanghai factory, including ​exports to Europe, Asia Pacific and Canada, increased ⁠to 95,366 units from 90,812 y/y.

• Aerospace sector: Global leasing giant Avolon said it had agreed to order 140 Aircraft from BA and 110 from EADSY, with an option to buy a further 100 jets from the European planemaker. Avolon, a subsidiary of China’s Bohai Leasing Co said the order comprised of 140 Boeing 737 Max jets, 75 Airbus A320neo planes and 35 A330neos, with options for a further 100 unspecified Airbus Aircraft.
• Multi-Industry sector: ITW downgraded Illinois Tool Works to Neutral from Overweight (tgt to $270 from $350) following a transfer of coverage citing concerns around decelerating short cycle industrial demand into 2027. The firm favors names that offer high OSG in ’27 (FPS, GEV, RRX, SPXC, TT), consistent ‘compounders’ (PH), later-cycle end-market plays (EMR, HON), and Self-help stories where consensus factors in little improvement (MMM, RRX). JPM downgrades DD (remove from Analyst Focus List) amidst concerns over decelerating Short Cycle Industrial demand into 2027.
• In the eVTOL sector: Barclay’s upgraded ACHR to Overweight and EVTL to Equal Weight from Underweight while downgraded JOBY to Underweight as the firm rolled out coverage of the aerospace and defense group, saying the U.S. is in the early innings of a modern day industrial revolution and they have a positive view of the sector, preferring defense technology.
• Energy sector: Baker Hughes (BKR) reports that the U.S. Rig Count is up 5 from last week to 603 with oil rigs up 6 to 462, gas rigs down 1 to 132 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 9. The U.S. Rig Count is up 56 rigs from last year’s count of 547 with oil rigs up 44, gas rigs up 12 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Refiners PSX, DINO, VLO, MPC hit fresh 52-week highs earlier, but pulled back late day after President Trump said concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin where it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to American and global marketplace. Russia will immediately supply another 500,000 tons during month of November, and 1,000,000 tons immediately thereafter.

• Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley and raised tgt to $358 from $258 saying the S&P contract renewal removes a key overhang for the shares, while also believes CBOE’s key performance indicator contracts add upside outside estimates.
• Crypto sector: GEMI was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $4.75 from $5.50 as believes the better crypto backdrop may not resolve Gemini’s scale and distribution challenges or deliver profitable growth.
• Insurance sector: GNW was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at KBW Inc. and VOYA also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform as the firm reduced Q3 EPS estimate by 1% on average for the life insurance group and trimmed 2027 EPS estimate by 1% due to weaker Q3 markets, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
• REIT sector: The REIT sector faced a more challenging backdrop during 3Q26, as higher long-term interest rates, renewed inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and an increasingly active election cycle weighed on investor sentiment. During 3Q26, the MSCI U.S. REIT Index generated a total return of -6.9%, underperforming the S&P 500 by 890bps. Notably, nearly all of the underperformance occurred during September, which coincided with the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.

• Healthcare sector movers: Vaccine stocks were broadly highs NVAX, MRNA, ARCT, BNTX after the New York Times highlighted mRNA Medicines and vaccines for cancer. Cancer vaccines are the N.I.H’s Next ‘Big Bet’ the article noted as new details have emerged about an initiative that starts in December to fast-track the vaccines, similar to the successful push for the COVID-19 vaccine. Shares of DNA, TWST, RXRX, TEM rallied as well on the article as personalized mRNA cancer vaccines are not mass-produced; each starts with tumor sequencing, neoantigen selection, and custom nucleic-acid synthesis, then manufacturing.
• Managed care sector: shares of HUM jump and ALHC decline after CMS announced ratings for plans. Humana said 95% of its Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in plans rated at least four stars for 2027, an improvement that could make more of its membership eligible for quality-related bonus payments. About 42% of Humana’s Medicare Advantage members are enrolled in 4.5-star plans. On the flip side, ALHC shares tumbled after saying one of its 2027 Medicare Advantage plans received a 3.5-star rating (down from prior 4-star) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. UNH’s UNH will have 67% of its MA members enrolled in 4+ Star plans, down 11% from 78% in the prior year. CVS will have 69% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~81% last year. The 2 largest contracts (H5522 and H5521) retained 4.5 and 4.0 stars, respectively. ELV will have 45% of its MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, compared to ~55% last year. The y/y decline was primarily related to contract H3655, which represents 7.6% of MA membership. CNC now has only 9% of total MA enrollment in 4+ Star plans, vs. 16% last year. CLOV shows H-5141 improving from 4.5 to 5 Stars, putting ~98% of its membership in a 5-Star contract.

• Hardware & Components sector: AAPL has told some of its suppliers to cut production of components for its newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, after soaring memory chip costs forced price increases that have dampened consumer demand. Multiple people familiar with the matter told Nikkei Asia that Apple has turned more conservative on shipments since early September, with two of them saying that component orders for this month have been slashed by at least 15% compared to what was originally requested, due to weaker-than-expected market demand.
• Optical sector was strong with shares of AAOI, LITE, COHR, CIEN, GLW advanced after LITE CEO said optical parts are ‘completely sold out’ through early 2029; expects significant supply shortfalls for some products through 2028; Nvidia invested $2B each in LITE and COHR earlier this year.
• Delivery content/Networking sector: FSLY was upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer with $35 tgt saying their bullish stance is predicated upon its strong industry checks that indicate growing contract values (growing attach of newer Security products) and early monetization of agentic Ai traffic.