Market Review: October 15, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 15, 2026

 U.S. stock markets remain incredibly resilient, shaking off sharp overnight declines in technology (Nasdaq futures fell over -1%) amid back-to-back “hotter” than expected inflation reports yesterday (CPI) and today (PPI), which raised chances of Fed interest rate hikes to slow inflation. The Nasdaq neared a one-month low earlier in the session as tech stocks lost ground after TSM reported better earnings and guidance but struck a cautious note on 2027 while reports of a 45% sequential jump in Anthropic’s quarterly revenue offered little reprieve. The broader Philadelphia semiconductor index (SOX) fell for a seventh straight decline, nit was well off the lows. Despite the surge in PPI readings today, the US dollar and Treasury yields surprisingly fell notable as the 10-year yield hit around 5.05% down from 5.329% yesterday morning post CPI data. On the flip side, traditionally defensive sectors continued to rise, with healthcare (XLV) hitting all time highs and consumer staples (XLP) on retail strength as well as solid gains in financials (XLF) and materials (XLB) as metals rebounded. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit a two-week high on Thursday before ending the day much lower from top levels.

Major AI stocks slumped again on Thursday as rising CPI/PPI data highlighted investor concern about the risks posed by rising borrowing costs in this capital-intensive sector, but managed a solid bounce to pare losses. Among the leading decliners Wednesday/Thursday were AI infrastructure/data center/neoclouds such as NBIS, CRWV, ORCL, DELL, IREN, HUT and power related plays for the industry VRT, SMCI, ETN, CAT, GNRC, PWR and others. The declines reflect the impact of tightening financial conditions, as well as the outsize gains scored by some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. Also, the social and political pushback against data Centers intensified the past few months such as the changes in zoning laws without community input, noise and Water use concerns, and electricity affordability concerns. Political leaders responded with outright moratoria (TX, NY), increased restrictions around NDAs, Water use, and electricity usage and who pays (PA, VA, etc.).

Dan Ives today called the AI stock selloff a clear buying opportunity and the sharp declines in Coreweave, Iren, Nebius represent buying opportunities rather than warning signs. Despite rising borrowing costs, Ives argues Ai Computing demand remains strong, with chip demand reportedly exceeding available supply by 13 to 1.He expects 800–1,000 data Centers to be built in the coming years. His key message: Higher interest rates make Ai infrastructure more expensive to finance, but do not necessarily weaken demand.”

• Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook index for October fell to 20.9 (vs. consensus 28.4) from 37.8 in September; new orders dropped to 4.3 from 29.2, prices paid declined to 43.2 from 48.6, the employment index slipped to 9.1 from 11.8, and the six-month business conditions index tumbled to 33.0 from 52.9.
• Inflation data ran hotter than expected as the Sept producer price index (PPI) headline rose +1.3% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) and +0.4% prior, and +6.3% Y/Y vs. +5.3% consensus and +5.4% prior; core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose +0.7% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.2% prior, and +5.0% Y/Y vs. +4.4% consensus and +4.6% prior.
• Retail Sales for September rose +0.8% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior, while Retail Sales ex-autos rose +0.9% M/M (vs. +0.5% consensus) from +1.4% prior (revised from +1.3%); the control group (ex-autos, gasoline, building materials & food services) rose just +0.1% M/M (vs. +0.3% consensus) from +1.2% prior.
• Weekly Jobless Claims climbed to 199,000 from 198,000 prior (and vs. consensus 200,000) as the 4-week moving average climbed to 198,500 from 198,250 prior week (previous 198,000) and continued claims fell to 1.710M from 1.714M prior (v. est. 1.710M).

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $97.97, rising $2.88, or 3.03% after falling more than 2% overnight as potential US steps to ease restrictions on Russia’s "shadow fleet" tankers soothed price concerns, but attacks on ships in the Middle East and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure limited the decline. Brent crude fell -$0.14 to settle at $105.92 per barrel.

• The U.S. dollar retreated further from an 18-month peak reached a few days ago as investors looked past strong US inflation (PPI today and CPI yesterday) and spending data to focus on a shakeout in the securities of AI data center firms. The dollar index (DXY) fell -0.5% to 102.00, having hit an 18-month high Wednesday after US inflation figures came in stronger than expected. That helped the euro bounce 0.48% from an 18-month trough to $1.1210, putting it on track for its biggest daily gain in nearly two months.

• Hardline/Broadline Retailing sector: WMT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $136 price target saying they see a more favorable setup for the shares into 2027 as the current inflationary environment should reinforce Walmart’s value proposition and drive accelerates market share gains; shares of COST, DG, DLTR also advanced on strength.
• Apparel & Footwear sector: CROX was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raised tgt to $139 from $118 citing greater visibility into the company’s multi-year growth story for the upgrade. NKE was a top performer in the S&P and Dow, rising over 5% while other underperforming retail names like DECK, M, GAP and LULU also posted solid gains.
• Consumer Staples sector: KMB guided Q3 sales and profit above expectations citing steady demand and cost-saving measures as now sees Q3 sales $4.13B vs. consensus of $4.1B and adj EPS $1.70 topping the $1.59 consensus and also reaffirmed its FY26 outlook. In beverages, the WSJ reported YUM’s KFC is nearing a deal to sign KO as its beverage provider at thousands of U.S. restaurants, a major blow to longtime supplier PEP.
• Staffin sector: MAN shares tumbled after guiding Q4 EPS of $1.03-$1.13, the midpoint of which is below the $1.10 estimate, after reporting Q3 revs of $4.84B, below the consensus $4.86B with in-line Q3 adj EPS of $1.01; also named insider Becky Frankiewicz CEO, effective Jan. 1, 2027.
• Homebuilders (KBH, LEN, TOL, DHI) rebound given the surprising move lower in Treasury yields despite hotter CPI, PPI data; the 10-yr yield -13bps to 5.06% after highs 5.32% just yesterday morning. Also seeing rebound in some mortgage related stocks too with names like RKT higher.

• Lodging sector: Goldman Sachs said they remain positive on Lodging into 3Q earnings as US RevPAR has stayed stronger than expected and broadened into Economy and Midscale but expects greater stock-level bifurcation around earnings flow-through and net unit growth. Highlights HLT as the preferred pick given expected positive revisions, improving NUG and fewer owner-relations concerns, while seeing execution risk around H and WH’s unit-growth targets; MAR should benefit from stronger RevPAR but owner economics remain an overhang. In timeshare, VAC offers the strongest setup with a beat-and-raise expected and December Investor Day as a catalyst, while HGV faces a tougher quarter and likely guidance cut.

• Refining sector: another day another record high for many of the names given better crack spread margins and higher diesel prices (before some slipping VLO, MPC, PBF, DINO, PSX). Goldman Sachs today downgraded PARR to Neutral from Buy as key catalysts have largely played out and elevated Freight rates create downside risk to 2027 consensus estimates given Hawaii’s reliance on waterborne crude. They instead highlight DK as the Preferred SMID-cap refiner, maintaining a Buy rating and raising the PT to $97 from $83, with stronger refining margins, operational initiatives and small refinery exemptions.

• PNC Q3 EPS $5.09 vs. est. $4.89 while Q3 revs rose 11% y/y to $6.56B but was below the consensus est. $6.59B as funding costs impact NII; Q3 net income rose 15% y/y to $2.1B; Q3 net interest income increased 15% y/y to $4.21B; Q3 non-interest expense fell -8% q/q to $3.75B; Q3 net loan charge-offs jumped 44% y/y to $257M.
• USB Q3 revs rose 8.7% y/y to $7.97B but vs. est. $8B; Q3 Net interest income rose due to higher loan balances and purchase of small business credit card portfolio; raises FY26 revenue view to up 8%-9% from prior view of 7%-9% and vs. FY25 revenue $28.7B (with FY26 consensus $31.07B) and said sees FY26 positive operating leverage of about 300 bps vs. prior view of about 200 bps
• Brokers & Investment sector: SCHW shares fell as Q3 revenue rose 17% y/y, slightly missing analyst expectations on better adj EPS of $1.69 as said record net new assets of $190.4B and 1.2M new brokerage accounts drove results; said higher trading volumes contributed to revenue, with daily average trading volume up 44% y/y.
• PIPR and advisory firm PWP have abandoned talks for an all-stock merger, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The companies were unable to agree on financial and personnel matters, FT reported. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Piper Sandler was in talks to buy Perella Weinberg.

• AQST announced that the U.S. FDA accepted its resubmitted marketing application for Anaphylm sublingual film, an epinephrine formulation designed for the emergency treatment of severe allergic reactions.
• AZN partners with Insitro in an AI-driven drug discovery collaboration for MASH and cardiomyopathies, with Insitro receiving $40 million upfront and eligible for up to $1.46 billion in milestones plus royalties.
• TAK presents Phase 2/3 IgGNITE results for subcutaneous TAK-881 in primary immunodeficiency disease at ESID 2026.
• VNDA said its experimental drug VQW-765 for social anxiety disorder failed the main goal of a late-stage study, prompting the company to put the program on hold pending further analysis of the data. The study did not show that the drug reduced anxiety compared to placebo during a public-speaking stress test, but missed a key secondary goal in the broader study population.

• Insulin sector: DXCM shares bounced early after CONNECT study was published in the New England Journal of Medicine; Randomized controlled trial demonstrates Dexcom G7 significantly reduces A1C and improves glucose control compared with routine care. Benefits observed across a broad range of participants, including those taking GLP-1 medications. Findings support the role of CGM earlier in Type 2 diabetes care for all people, including those over the age of 65.

• In Shipping and tanker sector (SHIP, DSX, GOGL, SB, SBLK, CTRM): Baltic index fell -122 points, or 4.57%, to 2,545 points, its lowest level since June 30th and its ninth consecutive session of losses. The Capesize index fell -308 points, or 8.48%, to 3,322 points, its lowest level since April. Average daily earnings for Capesize vessels fell $2,792 to $26,625. The panamax index lost -53 points, or 2.20%, to reach 2,356 points.
• E&Cs sector remains pressured due to the weakness in the AI/power play with names like PWR, MTZ, PRIM, VRT, ETN, CAT, GNRC, GEV and others that have broadly outperformed the SPX the last year. The social and political pushback against data Centers has intensified – the Social concerns around the secretive nature of the data center buildouts, the changes in zoning laws without community input, noise and Water use concerns, and electricity affordability concerns. Political leaders responded with outright moratoria (TX, NY), increased restrictions around NDAs, Water use, and electricity usage and who pays (PA, VA, etc.).

• Metals & Mining: after tumbling on Wednesday, precious metal prices and gold/silver miner stocks (AEM, NEM, AG, CDE, HL) rebounded today as the dollar fell along with Treasury yields despite a surging PPI inflation reading today (and higher CPI yesterday); CMC Q4 adj EPS and revs top consensus ($2.09/$2.66B vs. est. $1.96/$2.57B as the steel and construction solutions provider beat was driven by North America Steel Group growth and TAG initiatives and expects FY27 to be another strong year, though said Q1 adj EBITDA expected to be nearly flat sequentially on seasonal trends.
• Chemical sector: FMC slashes Q3 revenue view to $65M-$125M from $840M-$900M, well below consensus $866.67M and cuts Q3 adjusted EBITDA view to ($565M)-($510M) from $120M-$130M saying the revised expectations now include commercial actions; critical commercial issue facing FMC is slower-than-expected demand from channel customers in key markets; SMG was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS after an encouraging Analyst Day in early August and says though not immune to broader inflationary pressures and a K-shaped consumer, stills see a path to on algorithm EPS growth looking out to FY27.

• AI Infrastructure: More than $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment by 2030, as projected enterprise and consumer AI revenue of $3.6 trillion falls far short of the $8.5 trillion needed to cover capital costs and deliver a 12% return on invested capital, according to Gartner. The gap raises serious questions about the sustainability of the AI infrastructure boom, particularly as computing assets depreciate rapidly. Gartner warns that more than 80% of neocloud providers — including firms like CRWV and NBIS — could cease operating independently by 2030, while diversified hyperscalers such as MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, face less exposure.
• Anthropic Q3 revenue jumps 46% to $16.8B ahead of potential November IPO as the Claude developer told investors it was profitable on an adj basis and cash flow positive during the quarter, despite the significant costs associated with Ai infrastructure. The update came during investor presentations in San Francisco as Anthropic prepares for a potential November IPO. The company outlined plans to spend more than $500B on Computing/infrastructure over e next decade.
• AI sector: CNBC reported mid-afternoon that AAPL and META team up to make muse Ai model run on mac computers. Internet security sector, the group was weaker (CRWD, PANW, OKTA, ZS) on a Semafor report that Perplexity to open source its Ai Security software.
• Hardware & Comm Equipment: ERIC reported a net profit of 10.74 billion Swedish kronor (€961 million) in the first nine months of 2026, representing a 45.9% decrease y/y; results reflect an extraordinary negative impact of 5.262 billion kronor (€471 million) due to restructuring costs; said net sales between Jan-Sept totaled 161.5 billion Swedish kronor (€14.455B), down -3.5% y/y.

• TSM delivered Q3 results with Q4 rev guidance above expectations, although margin outlook and commentary highlighted ongoing pressure from 2nm and overseas fab ramps despite continued strength in AI demand; said Q3 revenue of $46.72B was above analysts’ expectations of $45.7B while gross margins were 66.4%, and operating margin reached 58.7%; guides Q4 revenue of $52.3B-$54.3B, above the analyst consensus of $50.48B.
• CRUS was downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight at KeyBanc citing: 1) AAPL cuts indicate iPhone units are likely to decline in 2027 (~80% of the Company’s revenues are tied to AAPL, with AAPL cutting wafer starts at TSMC on the order of 15M-20M iPhones); 2) emerging PC diversification opportunity likely pushed out given elevated memory pricing Cycle and 3) bidding for SYNA was a stretch and somewhat concerning, though ultimately rejected in favor of ON bid.
• NVDA released a new open model built for agents that work across everything at once; Nemotron 3.5 Super VL. 120B parameters, only 12B active at a time; It reasons, uses tools, and understands text, images, documents and video in one model. No passing context between separate models
• Semi equipment stocks hit harder than semis in general, with LRCX falling as much as -7% this morning, down a ninth straight day to lowest levels in about a month. DJ notes longest losing streak on record back to 1984); shares down -38% from ATH highs of $433.33 in late June