Closing Recap
Monday, October 19, 2026
|
Index |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
|
DJ Industrials |
-35.81 |
0.07% |
51,966 |
|
S&P 500 |
31.37 |
0.41% |
7,690 |
|
Nasdaq |
290.85 |
1.11% |
26,430 |
|
Russell 2000 |
6.93 |
0.25% |
2,728 |
U.S. stocks put in a solid day but finished well off their best levels into key earnings this week where roughly seventy S&P 500 companies report, including a few mega cap tech (TSLA, META). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led Monday’s gains after tumbling over 2% on Friday, as investors returned to AI-related stocks following last week’s bruising selloff. Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each posted their biggest weekly drops since late June on Friday, as concerns that higher interest rates could curb investments in AI infrastructure weighed on technology stocks, particularly data center operators/neoclouds. Those names bounced back today (NBIS, IREN slightly compared to Friday’s declines) along with semiconductors (SOX), which snapped an 8 day losing streak, its longest such streak since 2010. The selloff reflected mounting investor unease over how the costly AI build-out will be financed, a question that has increasingly pressured companies. Today’s session coincides with the 39th anniversary of Black Monday, the 1987 crash that marked the biggest one-day decline in the history of Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of the 11 S&P 500 constituents, eight posted losses. However, consumer discretionary (XLY) and technology group (XLK) led the gains, up 1.78% and 1.35%, respectively.
Economic Data
- U.S. October NAHB Housing market index at lowest since June 2012 at 29 (consensus 31) versus 32 in September (previous 32). October index of current single-family home sales 33 versus 35 in September (previous 35). October index of home sales over next six months 32 versus 37 in September (previous 37). Index of prospective buyers 18 versus 23 in September (previous 23).
Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries
- December gold fell -$21.00, or -0.50%, to settle at $4,160.10 an ounce and December silver slips -$0.03, or -0.06%, to settle at $57.27 an ounce, pressured by a firm dollar and elevated US Treasury yields, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week, when officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
- U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose $2.25 or 2.22% to settle at $103.66 per barrel while Brent crude prices slipped -$0.31 or 0.28% to settle at $109.55 per barrel. The dollar index rose as gains in US tech stocks ahead of earnings this week and higher oil prices after Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi facilities lifted Treasury yields. EUR/USD retreated toward 1.1210 as the firmer dollar/yields erased early gains.
- US Treasury yields rose with the 10-yr yield up 4.2bps to 5.14%, coming off its biggest weekly drop in seven months, as concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on AI stocks abated. The 10-year yield dropped 14.6 bps last week, even after hotter-than-expected inflation readings in the form of the consumer price index and producer price index, as equity markets sold off due to worries that investments in AI infrastructure stocks could begin to dry up, boosting the safe-haven appeal of Treasuries. But stocks were higher on Monday, as AI stocks recovered and helped push the Nasdaq Comp higher.
|
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
|
WTI Crude |
2.25 |
103.66 |
|
Brent |
-0.31 |
109.55 |
|
Gold |
-21.00 |
4,160.10 |
|
EUR/USD |
-0.0028 |
1.1211 |
|
JPY/USD |
0.50 |
158.49 |
|
10-Year Note |
0.042 |
5.14% |
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Casinos & Gaming: BYD was upgraded to Overweight in Gaming preview at Morgan Stanley (also raised at Susquehanna) while lowers its estimates for 2026 along with 2027 largely in Macau/Vegas. Regional data and Locals LV remain more resilient. OSB MSCO factors in more PM investment. The firm is generally below consensus for prints in Q3, with slight beats for SRAD and in-lien prints for BYD; it is most below on MGM.
- Loding sector: Deutsche Bank previewed the sector saying they expect Q326 adjusted EBITDA beats and raises from HLT, MAR, WH, and CHH on stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth, while also expects Hyatt (H) to beat Q326 consensus, driven by strong Luxury RevPAR trends, though continued Mexico headwinds, limited visibility into the Q426 NUG acceleration, and the significant Q426 adjusted EBITDA ramp already embedded in guidance.
- RV/Towable/Leisure sector: LCII was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel and cut tgt to $80 from $130 saying with high fuel prices, rising interest rates, other inflationary pressures, and waning consumer sentiment Stifel sees material headwinds to revenue and few positive catalysts for the stock, and so are moving to the sidelines.
Energy
- Oil Services & Equipment sector: RIG was awarded a 10-well contract worth ~$325M, covering approximately 700 days starting Q1 2027. Deepwater Conqueror secures a 5-well contract worth ~$225M, covering approximately 450 days starting Q3 2027. Citigroup cuts Q4 estimates to ~4% below FactSet consensus on HAL on average, although WFRD’s YTD underperformance and 2027 valuation are now garnering interest. CHRD sees Q3 volumes exceeding the high-end of guidance; CAPEX in line with guidance.
- Nuclear/Utility sector: LEU acquires one of its suppliers, Westerman Holdings for nearly $116 million, funded through a combination of around $95 million cash on hand and $21 million of equity; in research, Barclays downgraded OGE to EW from OW saying it has a strong catalyst path, but they believe it is almost entirely priced into the current multiple which has re-rated vs XLU +10% TT; in earnings preview, Barclays expects 40% of the sector benchmark to revise capital plans, and EPS outlooks this quarter driving the Utilities current 8% average EPS growth proposition higher, with earnings revisions continuing on the back of large load contracts.
Banks, Brokers, Asset Managers:
- Bank sector: @MikeZaccardi noted on X, “The KBW Bank Index has declined for six consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since 2008”. Private Equity: KKR said it will sell railcar-leasing company Infinity Transportation to peer ARES for about $2.9 billion.
- Payment sector: GPN was upgraded from Sector Weight to Overweight at Keybanc with $105 tgt saying despite continued macro and geopolitical risk, sees a favorable risk/reward that does not require a sharp growth acceleration. Upside should emerge if organic growth stabilizes and improves modestly into FY27, while the Company also delivers on its capital return target. PYPL was downgraded from Neutral to Underperform at Cleveland saying work suggests Q3 trends likely missed expectations driven by share loss and macro pressure.
- REIT Sector: Piper downgraded BXP, HPP, and NMRK to Neutral from OW as they are tightening our focus on earnings growth as interest rates weigh on debt costs and transaction volumes. 3Q26 earnings will be a tough one for REITs and as fundamentals remain strong in general, despite the RMZ’s 11% sell-off from its July 24 peak versus the S&P 500 of +3% during the same period, with REITs losing the outperformance from 1H26. While the long-term correlation between rates and REITs is low, in the near term, interest rate sensitivity dominates. When rates stabilize, they expect REITs to regain their luster as employment remains strong and supply/demand remains favorable for landlords given the sharp pullback in supply.
Biotech & Pharma:
- ANAB shares rose after the FDA granted accelerated approval to Jemperli, known generically as dostarlimab, as an immunotherapy for adults with stage II and III microsatellite instability-high/mismatch repair deficient locally advanced rectal cancer.
- EYPT shares tumbled after saying said its experimental treatment for a common cause of age-related blindness failed to maintain vision compared with a standard treatment in a late-stage trial. The same drug, called Duravyu, failed a previous Phase 3 study in August. Eyepoint also announced layoffs affecting just over half of its employees to preserve cash.
- GILD presented Ph2 emvistegrast data its oral α₄β₇ integrin inhibitor at the United European Gastroenterology (UEG), with the 200mg dose seeing a placebo-adjusted clinical response rate of 29% and complete remission rate of 23%.
- IAM shares tumbled after the drug developer backed by NVDA opened at $16.15 on Thursday after $150M IPO priced at $16, midpoint of the marketed range. The stock finished up ~26% on Friday at $23.81 after rising to as high as $25.
- IRON announces success on all primary and secondary endpoints in the pivotal phase 3 Apollo trial of bitopertin in adults and adolescents with erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP); said Bitopertin generally well-tolerated with no new safety signals in Apollo; plans NDA resubmission to FDA by end of 2026, decision expected mid-2027.
- LLY announced its intention to seek an indication extension for its bowel disease therapy Omvoh; said that its Phase 3 SHINE-2 study reached the primary endpoint, as 50% of patients who responded to Omvoh achieved clinical remission at Week 52.
- MANE said VDPHL01, met all primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance in both active treatment arms evaluating once-daily and twice-daily administration of VDPHL01; demonstrated increases in target area hair count of 28.6 hairs/cm² (once-daily dosing; p<0.0001) and 36.4 hairs/cm² (twice-daily dosing; p<0.0001) vs 6.6 hairs/cm² for placebo at Month 6.
- SLN to be acquired by Merck KGaA in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $1.1 billion and an equity value of approximately $1.3 billion, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. Silence shareholders will receive $20.00 in cash per ADS.
- SMMT announced the initiation and opening of clinical trial sites of a multiregional Phase II study of ivonescimab, a novel, potential first-in-class investigational PD-1 / VEGF bispecific antibody, in previously untreated advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
Industrials & Materials
- Industrial sector: AOS was downgraded from Buy to Hold at Stifel and lowered tgt to $59 from $70 saying with rising Steel prices, higher interest rates, and uncertainty around the China business outcome Stifel sees few catalysts for the stock in the short term and are moving to the sidelines.
- Transport sector: in rails, CNI was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James saying it enters Q4 facing tougher consolidated comps, with two of its strongest Q3 growth engines, namely grain and automotive, showing signs of moderation. In airlines, JBLU upgraded from Sell to Neutral at UBS as it thinks the risk-reward is balanced on the stock following the recent sell-off.
- Aerospace & Defense: ESLT said it was awarded a $235M contract to supply an undisclosed European nation with EXTRA medium-range rockets and Precise & Universal Launching System artillery. SPCX targeting Tuesday, October 20 for a falcon 9 launch of the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission to orbit. Also, Elon Musk pledged to distribute a share of SpaceX to each American child, posting the move just hours after artificial intelligence competitor Anthropic PBC said it would set aside a portion of its shares for the public benefit
Materials, Metals & Mining
- Metals & Mining sector: in steel space, CLF shares jumped on results as Q3 adj EPS $0.28 topped est. $0.19 though Q3 revs $5.6B missed $5.72B consensus; Q3 adj EBITDA of $612M was above the $575M guidance provided three months ago while noting average selling price, sales volumes, and unit costs all moved in the right direction relative to Q2 performance.
- Chemical sector: DOW was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank America saying Middle East instability has created a higher-for-longer crude oil environment, which provides improved earnings stability for Dow. Solvay (SLVVY) cut its 2026 forecast after the Middle East conflict and a peroxide plant shutdown at Sadara in Saudi Arabia hit Q3 earnings – now sees full-year EBITDA of 720M-740M euros and free cash flow of between 120M-150M euros.
- Packaging & Container sector: SLGN and American Industrial Partners said they will buy European firm Trivium Packaging in a deal worth $3.4 billion, including debt. Wells Fargo previewed the quarter, saying they favor positioning into releases are BALL, CCK, ATR, PKG. Beverage cans are again our fav exposure into the earnings cycle as we exp generally stable/low growth vols driven by promos + substrate shift in a relatively resilient category offsetting consumer pressures
AI, Internet, Media & Telecom
- Neocloud/Data center sector: early bounce in space (NBIS, IREN, HUT, CRWV) short lived after tumbling sharply on Friday; CRWV was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs after 24% dip in last five days while lowers tgt to $106 from $139. Goldman notes the stock is down 43% since Aug 11 and 24% in the last five trading days, due to ongoing volatility in the credit market, which raises questions on if and at what rate CoreWeave will be able to finance their next phase of growth, along with debate on demand for intelligence at the frontier vs. off frontier, and whether changing mix impacts token monetization at CoreWeave’s customers. However, the firm believes CoreWeave’s ARR per MW, and therefore unlevered IRR, is "biased to the upside" in the next 24 months because of tight supply.
- Internet sector: MTCH was upgraded from In Line to Outperform at Evercore and raised tgt to $53 from $39 saying based on Sensor Tower data and Evercore’s proprietary survey work, it believes Tinder’s user recovery is likely accelerating and tracking ahead of management’s plan for MAU and payer growth by the end of FY27.
Hardware & Software movers:
- Quantum sector: QNT says it hit a technical milestone that puts it on a path to achieve fully accurate and reliable Quantum computers by 2029. The Quantum-computing company said it has achieved a record-setting result on a problem that has bedeviled the industry for years: the tendency for the "qubits" at the center of a Quantum Computer to produce errors based on tiny disturbances in their environments – WSJ.
- Software sector: DDOG was upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein and raise tgt to $350 from $237 saying the firm’s data signals suggest Datadog’s enterprise token consumption appears to have grown at least 50% quarter-over-quarter among the largest AI Labs. Bernstein cites the company’s AI-driven tailwinds for the upgrade. GLBE was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley with $50 PT saying investors underestimate the durability of cross-border e-comm’s growth, W/ GLBE SSS currently in the mid-teens, & agentic a potential incremental tailwind.
- IT Services & Consulting: ACN is exploring a potential sale of its Greater China operations that could value the business at up to $1.5B, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Semiconductors:
- Coming into today, Semiconductors (SMH) have declined for eight straight sessions, longest streak in 16 years (index is still up >50% YTD).
- DeepSeek is working closely with Huawei Technologies to shape the Design of future Ai chips, two people familiar with the matter said, in a collaboration that could help China build Frontier Ai models without Nvidia’s technology, the Information reported.
- INTC was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan with an unchanged price target of $85 saying sees a more balanced risk/reward with the shares nearing its price target. Intel shares have pulled back 36% from its peak in June.
- MKSI to sell its Ophir Optics business to TTMI for $650M in all-cash deal.
- Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) will use TSM 3-nanometre process to produce base dies for NVDA next-generation custom high-bandwidth memory chips, the Seoul Economic Daily reported on Sunday. The move would mark the first time Samsung has worked with the Taiwanese contract chipmaker at the HBM manufacturing stage, according to the report
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.