Market Review: October 29, 2026

Closing Recap

Thursday, October 29, 2026

U.S. stocks were pressured all day on Thursday as a better PCE inflation reading and GDP data failed to overshadow the selloff in technology stocks after earnings from several high profile companies raised further concerns about the AI trade into big earnings tonight from AMZN and Intel. The Russell 2000 index hits over three-week high; last up 1% as Treasury yields eased helped by somewhat softer/in-line PCE inflation data this morning (the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation). NYSE breadth remained strong despite the S&P and Nasdaq down sharply, with nearly 2:1 advancers leading decliners as the Tech (XLK)fell -1.75% and Communications (XLC) -1.9% doing most of the damage due to heavy weightings; 8 of the 11 S&P sectors higher on the day with 2% gains for REITs (CLRE) and more than 1% advances for Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Financials.

Technology (XLK, QQQ) was the big market laggard amid weak results/guidance and/or comments dragging down shares of GOOGL, MSFT, FTNT, and NOW in AI/hyperscaler/semi and software spaces. MSFT beat on most metrics last night, while GOOGL shares fell over -12% as Search revenue growth of 12%, below the Street’s 15% estimate, likely restarting fears that generative AI and increasingly personalized bots are impacting search. Cap-ex guides for both hyperscalers were below consensus as Microsoft capex $39.37B vs. $45.93B expected, $6.56B below consensus, while Alphabet capex $51.36B vs. $55.78B expected, roughly $4.42B below consensus (ahead of AMZN results/capex tonight). Overall, Big Tech is expected to pump more than $700 billion this year into building data centers and securing the hardware and energy needed to develop and run AI technologies. Software space was pressured by NOW results as shares fall over -15% as they posted net income of $277 million, or 27 cents a share, down from $502 million, or 48 cents a share, the year prior, while revs rose to $4.11B vs. est. $4.09B and security software names down on FTNT print with shares falling -20%.

Central bank news: The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged which weighed on the euro. Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook. While the full effects of the energy shock are still unfolding, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage. The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth.

For next week, along with monthly jobs data, and another massive round of quarterly corporate earnings, we also get the results of Midterm elections where prediction markets are showing a better chance for Democrats to take control of the House and possibly the Senate. However, in an interesting stat, @Bluekurtic noted on X this morning that “Regardless of which party won control of the House or Senate, the S&P 500 has been higher 6 months after every midterm election since 1950.”

• Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate, according to an initial estimate released Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, beating economists’ expectations of 3.1% and marking an acceleration from the second quarter’s 2.2% growth.
• US advance Q3 consumer spending rose +3.8% while inflation data was better as Q3 PCE price index +2.1% (consensus +2.6%), Q3 core PCE +2.5% (consensus +2.4%); Q3 PCE price index ex-food/energy/housing +2.4% and Q3 PCE services price index ex-energy/housing +2.9%.
• Sept personal Income rose +0.2% (vs. consensus +0.3%) and compared to Aug +0.3% (prev +0.2%), while Sept Personal Spending +0.5% (vs. consensus +0.6%); Sept real consumer spending unchanged vs Aug +0.5% (prev +0.6%).
• Sept overall PCE price index +0.5% (consensus +0.5%) vs Aug +0.3% (prev +0.3%) and Sept core PCE price index +0.3% (consensus +0.3%) vs Aug +0.3% (prev +0.2%)

• Treasury yields pulled back this afternoon as softer PCE inflation data helped ease pressures for the time being, as the 10-yr yield fell -5.6bps to 4.988% snapping a four-trading-day streak of rising yields; the 2-yr yield declined -7.7 bps to 4.65% to lowest levels in a week and the 30-yr yield dropped -3.3 bps to 5.327%.
• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $102.00/bbl, down 78 cents, or 0.76% and Brent Crude futures settle at $114.88/bbl, down 44 cents, or 0.38%, rebounding off earlier lows. Dec gold slips -$20.20, or -0.50%, to settle at $4,031.40 an ounce while December silver falls -$1.29, or -2.40%, to finish at $52.38 an ounce.

• Retailing sector: BOOT posted Q2 sales beat and highs comp sales; CROX shares surge on upside to both top and bottom-line and big upside to the out-quarter top and bottom-line guide as well; 3Q EPS of $3.69 vs Consensus $3.31 and operating income nicely above (7% beat) while revs beat by 4%; Q4 EPS guide above at $3.35 vs. consensus $3.11 and revs; LULU shares rising for a 4th straight day to $110 highest levels in 2 months and approaching its 100dma of $110.50.
• Food & Beverages: HSY posted a top and bottom line beat for Q3 but shares slipped after lowered its annual organic net sales growth target to about 3%, citing weakness in channels such as convenience stores, where customers were budgeting for higher gas prices; SFM shares tumbled as missed a depressed Q3 bar and deemed recent comp weakness to be more company-specific vs cyclical as the co outlined a reinvestment plan focused on price, opening the door to a ~150+ bps Y/ Y margin decline in 2027 (prompts downgrade to Sector Perform at RBC).

• Building product sector: VMC reported both Q3 revenue fell and Q3 adjusted EBITDA declined and missed analyst expectations while EPS beat; expects mid- to high-single digit aggregates pricing gains in 2027; said higher aggregates selling prices helped offset lower shipments/energy costs.

• Cruise sector: NCLH raises full-year profit forecast and beats Q3 expectations, helped by stronger-than-expected last-minute bookings and higher onboard spending; now sees FY26 EPS of roughly $1.70, versus $1.50 forecast previously and follows a Q3 EPS and rev beat for quarter.
• Casinos & Gaming: MGM shares tumbled on earnings results; RSI reported a mixed quarter as Q3 Adj. EBITDA beat by +6% (normalized for one-time FX benefit), though October was disclosed to be pacing in line with moderated August/September growth which run-rated implies RSI is now pacing below midpoint of FY26 guidance.
• Leisure sector: HOG said global motorcycle shipments down 8% to 33,616 units while HDMC operating income down 18% y/y; LiveWire, Co’s electric motorcycle unit, posts Q3 operating loss of $17.8M and withdraws its guidance; Q3 North American retail sales up 9%, global retail up 5% while overall revs $1.08B topped $1.06B estimate.
• Ride Delivery/Gig sector: CART and DASH made it official confirming that CART shareholders will receive $65 in cash, 0.3372 of DASH shares or a mix of $48.75 and 0.0843 of DASH. The deal is expected to close in the end of 2027 or the first half of 2028, subject to CART approval and regulatory approvals under HSR, Canada and Israel.

• Power sector: PWR raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $17.90-$18.30 from $16.45-$16.95 (above consensus $16.75, while boosts FY26 revenue view to $41.3B-$41.6B from $39.3B-$39.7B, and raised its FY26 adjusted EBITDA view to $4.4B-$4.49B from $3.74B-$3.86B (the results and comments helped other E&C names MTZ, DY, PRIM, etc.)
• Alt Energy/solar: NXT beat consensus by $0.25, aided primarily by lower OPEX along with a strong booking quarter, and backlog increased to over $6B, up from over $5.5B Q/Q. NXT raised guidance slightly for the full fiscal year (headwind was increased input cost due to higher diesel/Steel prices.)

• Consumer finance sector: MA shares rally after Q3 results top consensus while Mastercard’s gross dollar volume – the value of all transactions processed on its platform – jumped ​7% in the third quarter to $3 trillion; Cross-border volumes jumped 11% in the quarter on a local currency basis.

• EPR reported a 3Q26 FFOAA beat (+$0.02 vs. cons.) and management raised FY26 FFOAA guidance by 0.7% to $5.49 $5.57 (+8.1% y/y), which is slightly below cons. ($5.54). Raised guidance was driven by a 7.7% increase in FY26 investment guidance to $675M-$725M and increased percentage rent guidance of 12.2% to $21.5M-$24.5M.
• INVH 3Q results were in line with expectations, while management modestly increased 2026 cFFO guidance. Operating trends improved vs. 2Q, as stronger renewal growth more than offset moderating new lease growth and should support a 2027 revenue growth earn-in similar to or better than last year. While SSRev. growth guidance was affirmed, improving occupancy may be necessary to achieve implied 4Q acceleration in top-line growth
• MAA cFFO was in line with, while mgmt. modestly decreased ‘26 cFFO guidance, meeting Street expectations. The revision was driven by a 35 bps reduction in SSRev. growth guidance, partially offset by lower expenses, but likely to weigh on MAA’s estimated revenue growth earn-in of ~35 bps
• VICI reported in-line 3Q26 AFFO of $0.62 and raised FY26 guidance by $0.015 at the mdpt (+0.6%) to $2.47-$2.48 (consensus at $2.47). VICI’s balance sheet remains well positioned, while a new $2B share buyback plan adds another capital allocation lever for future use. The most notable detail in the release is a $458M non-cash CECL charge, including a $313M charge related to Caesars

• BMY Q3 EPS $1.35 tops estimates $1.14 on revs $13.1B vs. est. $12.75B and raises annual revenue forecast to a range of $49.75B-$50.25B from prior $49-$50B view and now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.35-$6.55 per share versus a previous projection of $6.75-$7.00 apiece.
• GSK was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with a price target of $55.90, down from $67.40 saying GSK is entering a period of more limited earnings momentum, alongside launch execution risk, and fewer meaningful pipeline readouts.
• INCY raises FY26 revenue view to $5.21B-$5.3B from $5.13B-$5.26B after posting Q3 revs $1.56B topping consensus of $1.46B; raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance for Opzelura, Hematology and Oncology, and total net sales.
• IOVA falls as updated iov-lun-202 results and adds Precision til strategy for second-line metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer; iov-lun-202 cohorts 1 and 2 complete enrollment; planned SBLA for lifileucel in 2027; reports 24.6% ORR in 69 non-squamous MNSCLS patients in updated results.
• LLY posted a q3 EPS/sales beat ($7.48/$24.4B vs. est. $6.61/$22.62B) and cuts FY26 EPS view to $35.00-$36.00 from $35.50-$36.50 (est. $34.46), but raises FY26 revenue view to $91B-$92B from $85B-$87B, consensus $88.74B.
• MRK reported higher-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue, driven by strong sales of its cancer drug Keytruda and HPV vaccine Gardasil; also raised its full-year profit and revenue forecasts; raises FY26 adjusted EPS view to $2.77-$2.82 from $2.66-$2.76 (est. $2.65).
• VKTX reported Q326 EPS, with Sunrise oral phase III program now underway, maintenance Part 2 initiated and the VANQUISH extensions set to begin in Q127.

• Medical Equipment: GKOS shares jumped as delivered a ~26% rev beat (+58%y/y), substantial profit upside, a big ’26 guidance raise & an above-CNS $1B initial ’27 outlook; Epioxa rev ($53M vs. $17M CNS) topped elevated ($40M+) buyside expectations per Truist.
• Healthcare Services: TDOC reported a top- and bottom-line beat (upper end of the revenue guide range and above the adj. EBITDA guide range). In the BetterHelp segment, insurance revenue exceeded expectations as TDOC makes progress expanding provider capacity and scaling access to covered services (which was softer last quarter).
• Hospital sector: UHS Q3 results were modestly worse than expected, highlighted by a ~3% underlying EBITDA miss; Comp sales vols were relatively strong in both Acute and Behavioral, but performance was negatively impacted by the slower ramp at new Acute hospitals (Cedar Hill, Palm Beach) and somewhat softer Acute service mix that negatively impacted pricing.

• Ag machinery: CAT shares tumbled as Q3 adj EPS $7.20 tops consensus $7.03 while Q3 revenue $20.7B vs. est. $20.69B; outlook Q4 sales & revenues moderate sales growth as compared to Q4 2025; investors turn cautious on AI boom; scrutiny grows over data center spending and returns; AGCO comments after Q3 results shy of consensus, ““the weakest global industry demand environment in more than a decade”…”elevated input costs and uncertainty around commodity markets and the trade environment pushed industry demand below the last cyclical trough”
• Aerospace & Defense sector: LHX posted a Q3 EPS and rev beat with backlog $53.2B and Q3 orders of $19.3B, while raising FY revs outlook to $23.5B-$23.7B vs. EST $23.577B and EPS outlook to $12.25-$12.35 from prior $11.80-$12.00 and vs est $11.96 while maintains FY26 free cash flow guidance of $3B; shares of HWM and FTAI also in the space rising post earnings results.

• Telecom sector: TMUS reports quarterly revenue of $23.58B, beating analysts’ estimate of $23.14B and EPS of $3.22 per share, compared with $2.41 per share a year earlier; boosted full-year core adj EBITDA forecast to $37.35B-$37.45B, from $37.1B-$37.5B prior as results were propped up by stronger postpaid business performance driven by higher premium-plan adoption and rate-plan modernization. Also, the FCC voted today to advance new satellite-to-phone rules that could benefit SPCX’s Starlink Mobile, despite lobbying efforts by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile to restrict parts of this proposal.
• Ai and datacenter infrastructure recap post earnings: APH delivered record results with 65% Y/y revenue growth, record $12.2B of orders and Ai now representing roughly 75% of IT datacom revenue, supporting a higher $122 price target. VRT posted a significant beat, raised 2026 guidance and reported organic orders up more than 100% Y/y, with management citing an expanding pipeline and strong momentum into 2027, driving its target price to $313. FLEX reported results and guidance well ahead of expectations, with Cloud and power infrastructure demand accelerating and management raising FY27 guidance on continued hyperscale datacenter strength; target price moves to $159. TEL also beat expectations with record backlog, 29% Y/y order growth and stronger guidance, supported by datacenter, power infrastructure, industrial automation and EV content growth, leading to a target price increase to $293.

• NOW shares tumbled after Q3 adj EPS $1.00 misses estimates of $1.02 on slightly better revs $4.11B vs. est. $4.09B, though they posted net income of $277M, or 27c a share, down from $502M, or 48c y/y; Q2 RPOs rose 20.5% to $13.65B topping the $13.56B estimate; did raise full-year 2026 subscription revenue outlook to $15.78B-$15.79B (the results weighed on the SaaS complex as a whole with TEAM, HUBS, MNDY, SNOW, TWLO, WDAY, CRM all weaker).
• FTNT shares tumbled on results, weighing on the security software/cyber sector after posting Q3 product revenue growth of 37%, compared to a 52% growth in previous quarter while also cut its FY26 service revenue forecast to $5.15B-$5.17B from prior view of $5.18B-$5.22B (shares of CRWD, PANW, ZS, CHKP, OKTA, SAIL, S all notably lower this morning).
• TENB delivered a solid Q3, surpassing consensus estimates across revenue, operating Income, and free cash flow; also raised its FY26 guidance for revenue, operating Income, and EPS slightly, and repurchased $223.8M in shares during the quarter. The outperformance was driven by continued momentum in the Tenable One platform.

• Communications & Networking: ADT shares jumped after agreeing to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in $15.3B transaction as stockholders will receive $10.00 per share in cash, representing a 45.6% premium; XRX tumbles after suspended its dividend and cut full-year profit and cash flow guidance amid higher costs; now sees 2026 adj operating income at $450-475M, down from $555-605M and forecasts 2026 free cash flow of $50-100M, down from $250M.

• Memory stocks hit early (MU, SKHY, SNDK, WDC) after Samsung results, which did post a fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings as net profit jumped more than 6x y/y to 75.136 trillion won ($56.15 billion), with revenue more than doubling, all driven by the company’s chip division. But shareholders still appeared to be disappointed as Samsung largely reiterated its already issued guidance and shareholder-return plan. That was in contrast to its domestic peer SK Hynix, which unveiled a plan to return $75 billion to shareholders in its own report.
• In semi-equipment sector: KLAC reported beat-and-raise results reflecting accelerating 2H26 growth as incremental supply comes online to support strong Ai-driven demand; mgmt expects 2026 WFE to be mid-$150B range and 2027 WFE of $200B+. ENTG reported beat and raise results with 25% Y/Y growth driven by increasing semi complexity, rising materials intensity, and investment in leading-edge technologies. FORM Q3 above consensus on strength in Foundry & Logic and CPO-driven Systems. Gross margin also beat, though part of it came from one-time tariff refunds/4Q outlook is further above consensus.
• STM delivered a 1% beat in 3Q26 revenue and gross margin, while reported operating income came in below consensus due to restructuring charges. The 4Q revenue ($4.15bn vs.$4.1bn) and gross margin (c.39% vs. est. 38.1%) guidance came in modestly ahead, with the company citing strong demand and bookings, improving visibility and distributor inventory tracking below.