Market Review: October 30, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, October 30, 2026

Ahead of Halloween, Wall Street was spooked by technology stocks, playing a “trick” not a “treat” for investors, and closing out a tumultuous month for the AI related trade. U.S. stock markets tumbled behind a sharp -2.86% drop in the Nasdaq, hitting near 3 month lows as aggressive AI spending plans from Amazon and Intel’s cash-burn warning heightened investor concerns over soaring AI buildout costs and the timeline for returns. Intel posted its steepest one-day drop on record with a near 29% slide after saying it would burn cash this year due to a weak PC market, manufacturing hurdles and heavy spending to expand production. The warning from both led to further aggressive selling in semis and the AI chain, with data centers, opticals and infrastructure names extending their monthly declines. Software stocks also added to the bloodbath in tech with TWLO falling on lower guidance, just a day after weak results from NOW crushed the sector. The S&P Tech sector (XLK) fell nearly -5% Friday while the SOX index fell over -7.2%, breaking below key technical support levels (and finished down over -15.3% this month), off the lows of the day. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) spiked as high as 23.93 this afternoon, taking out Friday 10/16 22.31 high, but ended the day just below 20.

Overall though, October has been a great month for most of the other S&P 500 names, with 9 of 11 sectors posting monthly gains and 4 of those 9 racking up for double digit % gains. Communications (XLC) is down over -9% this month while Technology (XLK) is down -7.5%. On the flip side, investors have rotated into Energy (XLE), which is up 13% in October due to surging oil/energy prices, while defensive Healthcare (XLV), Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are all on track for monthly gains of over 10%. All three major indexes posted weekly losses after the Nasdaq posts biggest one-day percentage loss since June 5^th (biggest monthly % decline since March 2025). For the week, the S&P 500 fell -0.58%, the Nasdaq declined -2%, and the Dow fell -0.85% while for the month the S&P 500 fell -0.94%, the Nasdaq declined -5.3%, and the Dow climbed 1.7%. S&P 500, Nasdaq fall for third straight week, longest weekly run of declines since March.

The Nasdaq 100 index is on track for a $2 trillion market value wipeout in October as investors scrutinize Big Tech’s massive artificial intelligence spending. Companies like Alphabet and Meta are raising concerns about cash burn and capital markets access, while Microsoft and Amazon show AI investments beginning to pay off. Hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL, META, SPCX and others have not guided Wall Street properly on how much they intended to spend this year and next on AI infrastructure. The bills are coming in much larger than expected and the fact that cash flow (FCF) is drying up from the hyperscalers because of a protracted period of spending is causing the debt and stock markets to retreat. The prospect of ever-bigger AI outlays has unnerved investors, particularly as rising borrowing costs threaten to make debt-funded investment more expensive and harder to justify. Amazon’s free cash flow decreased to an outflow of $42.4 billion for the trailing twelve months (compared to a free cash flow inflow of $14.8 billion y/y); Google posted negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in the quarter versus a Wall Street estimate for negative $3.5 billion. Meta last week posted negative free cash flow for the first time since 2012. SpaceX (SPCX) burned about $9.9 billion in free cash flow in the quarter.

Another huge story was in the crypto markets as hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, in a record theft that analysts pinned on North Korea. Cryptocurrency prices fell on the news with Bitcoin down -1.5% to $77,600, while Binance halted withdrawals and said it would cover the losses. About half the stolen assets were quickly frozen by stablecoin issuers such as Tether, Circle and the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial. “This was a complex attack, and we are doing all we can in coordination with law enforcement to resolve it,” Binance said in a post on X. The exchange said customer funds were safe and that it was working with partners to freeze some of the affected assets, with about $3 billion located so far. It expects to resume withdrawal services in the next 45 hours. It did not mention the status of the remaining $3.3 billion. Co-CEO Teng said that “and company funds” would cover losses.

• U.S. Q3 employment cost index +0.8% (consensus +0.8%) vs Q2 +0.9% (prev +0.9%); U.S. Q3 wages/salaries +0.7% vs Q2 +0.9% (prev +0.9%) and U.S. Q3 benefit costs +0.9% vs Q2 +1.0%.

• Oil prices added to weekly gains, as WTI crude rose $2.12 or 2.08% to settle at $104.12 per barrel, its highest close since September 15^th and rising over 15% this month alone (up 4 straight months) while Brent crude rose $2.76, or 2.4% to $117.64 per barrel, its highest close since April 29^th
• Global bond yields end October sharply lower as a flight to safety revived demand for government debt, even as markets braced for higher short-term borrowing from the U.S. Treasury. The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.913%, down -6 bps today and -36.4 bps this month, its largest monthly decline since December 2023. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield settled at 3.319%, 26bps this month in its largest monthly decline since April 2025. The 2-year yield fell -7.5bps today to 4.579% and down 30.6 bps in October, snapping a 7-month streak of rising yields; down 5 straight weeks.

• Retail sector: CPRI shares outperform as Q2 revenue fell 5.5% y/y to $809M but topped analyst expectations of $780.7M on better earnings while guided annual profit of about $2.20 per share, compared with prior forecast of $2.15 per share. XPOF shares jumped after Blomberg reported Fund 1 Investments, the third-largest shareholder in Xponential Fitness, is pushing for a take-private deal and is looking to buy them nential, said the sources.
• Consumer Staples: CL raised its annual adjusted EPS view after beating Q3 net sales and profit estimates; now sees FY26 adj EPS growth of 5% to 7%, compared with mid-single-digit growth previously while narrows annual net sales growth forecast to 4%-5% from prior 2%-6%. Had posted Q3 $EPS $0.97/$5.37B sales vs. est. $0.93/$5.33B.
• Restaurant sector: SBUX delivered a strong F4Q print with impressive margin performance driving a meaningful EPS beat, and guided FY27 margins and EPS ahead of expectations. F4Q NA SSS were +7.9%, reflecting broad-based strength across the business, and SBUX expects underlying momentum to continue with FY27 SSS of ~4%.
• Auto sector: electric vehicle maker RIVN was strong after results after posting a smaller than expected Q3 loss and revs of $2.15B topped consensus as they 19,248 vehicles in Q3, up 46% y/y, led by R2 model and raises 2026 delivery guidance to 67k-70K vehicles from 65k-70K.

• Solar sector: FSLR shares pressured early after results as Q3 EPS topped views but Q3 revenue of $1.23B misses consensus $1.29B due to a decrease in the volume of modules sold to third parties; cuts FY26 revenue view to $4.6B-$4.9B from $4.9B-$5.2B and lowers FY26 volume sold estimate. TE signed solar module supply contracts totaling more than 1,580 MW, including deals with Avantus subsidiaries; deliveries from its G1_Dallas facility are expected in 2027 and 2028

• Mortgage sector: RKT reported solid 3Q26 results, although disappointing 4Q26 guidance underscored the increasingly challenging U.S. mortgage market. Adjusted EPS of $0.15 was $0.01 below our estimate but ahead of the $0.13 consensus, as weaker-than-expected origination volumes were partially offset by stronger GOS margins. The primary disappointment was 4Q26 revenue guidance, which implies a meaningful sequential slowdown in mortgage activity and raises questions about the sustainability of operating leverage heading into 2027.

• ABOS shares tumbled after saying its experimental Alzheimer’s disease drug sabirnetug failed the main goal of a mid-stage study, showing no meaningful benefit in slowing memory and functional decline versus placebo; key secondary measures also failed to reach statistical significance.
• AGIO shares fall as the FDA extended review of its drug mitapivat for sickle cell disease by three months as sets new action date of February 1, 2027 (from original PDUFA date of 11/1/26). The FDA requested more info to evaluate whether a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy is necessary for the drug for sickle cell.
• INCY was upgraded from Perform to Outperform at Oppenheimer along with its Q3 update, as it believes INCY is increasingly demonstrating a credible path to growth beyond Jakafi 2029 LOE, supported by strong underlying commercial performance and continued pipeline advancement.
• NRXP said the FDA approved its preservative-free ketamine injection ahead of the agency’s November 10 target decision date; says ketamine injections have been in shortage since 2018 and remain on the FDA drug shortage list.
• REGN rises as Q3 adjusted profit of $20.07 per share, above analysts’ estimate of $16.24 per share and Q3 revenue of $5.12B, above analysts’ estimate of $4.54B boosts shares.

• Diagnostics sector: CDNA reported Q3 results that were above consensus, driven by continued expansion in Transplant test volume, and raised FY26 revenue view to $520M-$530M from prior $490M-$500M and adj EBITDA view to $90M-$100M from $66M-$78M.
• Insulin sector: DXCM Q3 adj. EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.67 (beat); revenue $1.344B vs. est. $1.327B (beat); adj. operating Income $339.5Mm vs. est. $314.2Mm (beat); adj. net Income $275Mm vs. est. $256.6Mm (beat); adj. gross profit $875.3Mm; GAAP EPS $0.72; FY26 revenue guidance $5.20B-$5.25B vs. est. $5.23B; authorized up to $1B in share repurchases.

• Transport sector: FDXF shares rose as quarterly revenue rose 8% to $2.44B topping estimates of $2.37B and guided Q4 earnings above estimates citing improvement in volumes (sees Q4 adj EPS $0.65-$0.75 vs. est. $0.53) after posted an adjusted profit of $1.49 per share, above analysts expectation of $1.36.in airlines, Air passenger demand fell 0.5% in September mainly due to the Middle East and North America regions, while Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean grew, according to data from the International Air Transport Association. Demand–measured in revenue passenger kilometers–fell 8% in the Middle East and was 1.6% lower in North America. However, Africa demand rose 5%, while Latin America and the Caribbean rose 4.3%, according to the data. Despite the overall drop, total demand was an improvement compared with the prior month with a return to growth in most international markets, IATA says.
• Shipping/tanker sector (SHIP, DSX, GOGL, SB, SBLK, CTRM): The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was dragged lower by continued weakness in Capesize and Panamax vessel rates. The main index edged higher 2 points today to 2,714 points, its highest since October 13, but was still down for a second straight monthly decline, down more than 12% in October. The Capesize index rose by 36 points to 4,126 points, but down 16% on month while the panamax index fell 32 points, to 1,889 points, lowest level since April 13 and down over -20% this month.
• Building product sector: FND shares slumped on results as Q3 sales $1.21B missed est. $1.22B and Q3 comp sales -1.4%; while MHK Q3 adj EPS $2.72 vs. est. $2.58 and sales $2.8B, in-line with estimates; guides Q4 EPS $1.35-$1.45 vs. est. $1.66; expects low single-digit growth in Q4 2026 adjusted net sales versus prior year; assumes Q4 flooring market conditions will be softer than Q3.

• Chemical sector: EMN posted mixed Q3 results with EBIT of $305M and EPS of $1.84 largely missing consensus of $1.92. Price/cost in A&FP also remained a solid tailwind as the segment handily beat. However, volumes were much weaker at +1% and Q4 EPS guidance is $1.10-$1.30 vs. $1.31 consensus; OLN Q3 EBITDA of $191M came in ahead of the $180M consensus, vs a $160M-$200M guide though weak Q4 guidance of $80M-$100M, was below the $116M consensus.

• More AMZN: AWS revenue reached $46B, up 39% YoY, bringing ARR to $184B. Backlog grew to $578B, up $82B Q/Q from $496B. AWS revenue of $46.0B (+39% Y/Y) accelerated for a sixth straight quarter. Advertising revenue of $19.6B (+12% Y/Y ex-FX) was 6% below consensus on timing. Operating income of $28.1B (13.9% margin) was 6% above the high end of guidance. AWS operating margin expanded ~400 bps Y/Y to 38.7%. CapEx was $75.9B; reiterated ~$220B for 2026 and expects to spend "meaningfully more" in 2027.
• Internet/Socal media sector: RDDT shares tumbled after results, also downgraded to Sector Weight at KeyBanc (and Citizens) saying their thesis is not playing out; search traffic is a larger headwind than envisioned (potential for a LDD% q/q decline in 4Q), and this creates more uncertainty around ’27E/’28E revenue and EBITDA. GDDY reported 3Q revenue/NEBITDA/FCF of $1,342M/$449.3M/$480.8M vs. consensus’ $1,327M/$440.2M/$461.1M as Airo ARR doubled Q/Q to $100M+ and are now more-than-offsetting headwinds from migrations from legacy products.

• The PHLX Semi Index (SOX) dropped over 7% to below its 200dma support of 10,785 this morning in a broad, aggressive and volatile pullback in semis. The semi space took another leg lower midafternoon after reported Anthropic is expected to receive a “high” junk rating, per a report in The Financial Times.
• SNDK delivered another positive beat / raise in the memory sector, but broader weakness in semi space on INTC lower guide and general AI concerns right now pushing shares lower
• AXTI reported 3Q26, with sales/EPS of $73.4M/$0.41, above consensus of $66.0M/$0.31. Strong beat and raise as InP revenue increased 67% Q/Q to $54M. InP backlog increased to $500M+ from $100M+ in 2Q. InP quarterly capacity expected to be ~$70M in 4Q26, increasing to ~$140M in Q4.
• MPWR reported strong 3Q results and 4Q guidance, which solidly exceeded expectations. Upside was primarily driven by Enterprise Data, which grew +165% y/y and Communications (Optical Networking), which grew +135% y/ y. Accordingly, MPWR increased its ED growth outlook to +150% this year from +130% prior.