Market Review: September 04, 2026

Closing Recap

Friday, September 04, 2026

U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday as the August jobs report came in better than expected, raising expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates at their policy meeting in a few weeks. August payrolls grew by 162,000 versus the consensus of 53,000, while June and July were better than previously reported, too. June’s report was revised up by 11,000 to 31,000. The change for July was revised up by 44,000 to 21,000, reversing a previously reported decline in jobs. Taken together, employment in the summer months was 55,000 higher than first reported. The jobs report boosted Treasury yields and the dollar, while gold, silver and Bitcoin prices eased after rallies this week on rate hike fears. S&P sector winners were Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI) and Utilities (XLU), while Healthcare (XLV), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communications (XLC) and Energy (XLE) were the day’s biggest losers. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.4%.

Reminder, the stock market is closed Monday for Labor Day, but a very busy week of potential market moving catalysts: A very quiet week of earnings with only a handful of note led by ORCL, ADBE in software with other noteworthy names CHWY, KR, AEO, AVAV and Macy’s (M). Huge week of Wall Street conferences with three Tech conferences (Bofa, GSSCO, and Citi), the Cantor and Wells Fargo Healthcare Conferences, Barclay’s Global Consumer Conference and Jefferies Material/Industrial conference. Apple (AAPL) holds annual iPhone event on 9/9. The European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting held on Thursday 9/10. Lastly, key inflation data late week with the August PPI and CPI data points Thursday and Friday respectively. Meanwhile, midterms are just 8 weeks away! Bank America strategist Hartnett provided some market outlook Midterm Scenarios: 1) Dem Sweep (50% prob): Big risk-off (stocks -10%, $USD, yields down). Short financials & $USD, 2) GOP Sweep (10%): Risk-on green Light for Ai bubble, and 3) GOP Senate / Dem House (35%): Goldilocks gridlock.”

Stats of the day: 1) @bluekurtic noted on X, “the VIX has stayed between 14 & 17 for 25 straight trading days—1 day shy of the May 15, 1992, record (26 days). If it holds through Tuesday, it’ll be the longest streak in that range since 1990!; 2) @Bluekurtic also notes on X, “The market is closed Monday for Labor Day. A reminder that the first trading day of Labor Day week hasn’t been kind to the S&P 500. Since 2017, $SPY has fallen on Day 1 every single year, while the full 4-day week finished positive just 3 of 9 times.”

Bank America noted that there is a 99% probability ECB hikes Sept 10th, 53% Fed hikes on 16th, 98% BoJ hikes 18th (per Bloomberg futures pricing); hikes coming as central banks try to restore credibility to ward off surge in bond yields (biggest threat to AI capex + K-shape consumer booms). Short-term interest-rate futures now imply about a 65% chance for a hike at the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting, up from about 55% before the report.

• WTI crude oil prices rebounded off morning losses, ending the day higher by $0.18 or 0.2% to settle at $91.48 per barrel (off lows of $88.72) ending the week higher by over 8% as the United States and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. Brent crude futures gained $0.76 or 0.8% to end the day at $96.28 per barrel (off lows $93.15). The rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world. Average U.S. diesel prices hit record highs as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries increased supply disruptions. U.S. natural gas futures rose on Friday, posting their fourth straight weekly gain rising 2.1% today and 2.4% for the week settling at $2.975 per mln btus.

• U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. employment report led investors to increase bets on tighter policy from the Federal Reserve.  The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was last up 2 bps at 4.78%. It was at 4.792% just after the report. Two-year yields, which are particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy, led the rise and were last up 3.8 basis points at 4.37%. The initial wave of selling propelled the yield to a peak of 4.4246%, its highest since January 2025. The data followed relatively dovish remarks on Thursday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he was inclined to be patient on rate policy while watching to see if price pressures ease.

• Food sector: Your grocery Bill might just get a little more expensive. Global food prices, tracked by UN’s FAO Food Price Index, rose 1.9% in August to their highest level since December 2022. CALM was downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX as while it continues to expect egg market conditions to improve, it believes the slow pace of this improvement now coupled with elevated input costs will temper Cal-Maine’s earnings power, and dividend payments, into FY28.
• Sporting Goods/ammo sector: strength in earnings from both AOUT and SWBI, both rising on results as AOUT Q1 EPS/revs topped consensus while gross margins expanded to 53% from 46.7% y/y and raised its 2027 adj EBITDA guidance to $14.5Mm-$17.5Mm while maintained sales view. SWBI Q1 sales rose 32% y/y to $112M topping consensus $98.7M on better EPS and gross margin 28.7%, up 280bps YoY, including a 260bps benefit from $2.9Mm of tariff refunds and guided FY27 revenue growth guidance approximately 5%-7% vs est +5.2%.

• Defense sector: Satellite imagery firm PL raised its FY27 revenue forecast to $430M-$441M from prior range of $425M-$441M after better results which were driven by rising demand for satellite services and growing contract opportunities (posted Q2 revs $116.1M vs. est. $104M). U.S. State Dept: approved potential sale of Joint direct attack munitions continue range to Saudi Arabia for an estimated $5B.
• Rare Earth sector: shares of MP, UUUU, CCJ, USAR were higher early after Reuters reported some Chinese suppliers refuse to ship rare earths despite having export licenses. Rare earths on agenda of planning sessions ahead of Xi visit to Washington. Prices high, shortages remain for material used in defense, Semiconductors, Aerospace and energy.
• Distributor sector: FAST posted August 2026 net sales of $812,063, up 16.6% from $696,711; Daily sales rose 16.6% to $38,670, matching 21 business days year over year.; geographic daily sales growth: U.S. 15.5%, Canada/Mexico 20.7%, rest of world 28.4%; contract-customer daily sales increased 19%, outpacing 11% growth for non-contract customers.
• Tankers & Shipping stocks: continued surge in the space as DHT, GNK, FRO, GSL, LPG, NMM, SB, NAT all hitting 52-week highs on Friday.

• Business Servies; FICO shares fall after U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use credit scoring system VantageScore. "Fannie and Freddie’s initial rollout of VantageScore has been incredibly successful, with 50 LENDERS DELIVERING LOANS. So, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, I’m instructing Fannie and Freddie to approve ALL lenders to use VantageScore," Pulte wrote on X. "FICO has enjoyed a monopoly. No more," Pulte added. Title insurance stocks FAF, FNF, STC also slid after Bill Pulte said the FHFA also expanded Title Insurance pilots to make sure people save on Title Insurance. Separately, shares of BILL, INTU, HRB shares were active after a report in The Information stated that Anthropic is looking to build more billing, fraud detection and other financial infrastructure in-house and evaluating which payments-related services it can build itself rather than relying on outside providers, recent job postings show.
• Business software sector: GWRE shares tumbled even as the company surpassed quarterly estimates as expectations appear to have been higher; posted a Q4 EPS and rev beat (rose 15% y/y to $411.1M vs. est. $402.5M), and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B (but down from the 22% rise last quarter) and guided Q1 revs $372M-$378M below consensus $387.1M. DOCU delivered Q2 results that exceeded expectations and raised its FY27 ARR growth guide by 25bps to 8.75%; guides Q3 revs $868-890Mm vs est $888.56Mm; sees FY revs $3.50-3.51B vs est $3.497B.
• Crypto sector: it has been a good two week run for the industry, with Bitcoin surging back past $81K late yesterday and boosting the likes of COIN, MSTR, HOOD and Bitcoin miners RIOT, MARA, others. HOOD had its price tgt raised to $135 from $115 at Deutsche Bank today to reflect the recent acceleration in Robinhood Chain fee revenue. HOOD CFO Verma recently noted that monetization on Robinhood Chain from developers varies by transaction size but can be thought of as a few basis points on average, with approximately half of the economics shared with Arbitrum.

• AdTech sector: TTD said it will lay off ~15% of its employees in Q3 2026; estimates cash restructuring charges of $39 mln-$51 mln for severance, benefits and related costs.
• Hardware sector: IOT shares rose on results as Q2 EPS/revs topped consensus ($0.20/$508.4M vs. est. $0.16/$483.3M) as crossed $2.1B in ARR with 30% y/y growth for the third consecutive quarter and raised FY27 EPS view to $0.76-$0.78 from prior $0.70-$0.72and upped its rev outlook as well.
• EMS Sector: FLEX entered into a definitive agreement to acquire EPC Power at a value of $4.4B, subject to customary adjustments; transaction is expected to close in Q4 of calendar 2026.
• Semiconductors: very strong day overall for semis/AI trade, with a rotation back into the space and out of software with memory names like SNDK, MU, WDC, SKHY leading, but broader strength in semis; AMBA reported Q2 revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $108.1M/$0.18, in-line with guidance and consensus estimates while management announced agreements with Capgemini and Macnica, and guides Q3 sales $115M-$124M vs. est. $119.3M.

• Cybersecurity software sector: ZS shares slipped (after a 55% surge since April lows) after results and guidance as the company posted better results as Q4 revs and ARR both growing 25% y/y as total net new ARR was $246M, bringing total ARR to $3.8B; guides FY revs $3.908-3.938B vs est $3.899B.