Market Review: September 23, 2026

Closing Recap

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

U.S. stocks slumped on Wednesday as Treasury yields resumed their upward rise, hitting around 20-year highs (again) on stronger economic data and ever increasing expectations of additional FOMC rate hikes in coming months (including October). Soaring energy prices (diesel, oil) is not helping the inflation picture and weighed on sentiment again today. Nearly all eleven S&P sectors finished in the “red” today, outside of Energy (XLE) on the higher prices while Utilities (XLU) and REITs (XLRE) fell the most, dividend paying sectors that are most impacted by soaring bond yields. META shares helped the Nasdaq, holding its annual conference today, as CEO Zuckerberg delivers his Connect keynote tonight at 7 p.m. ET, while Dow component MCD shares sunk to 4-year lows after comments/outlook at its Investor Day.

U.S. shares dropped while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit the highest level since 2007, rising over 15ps topping 5.12% after data showed that US business activity raced to a more than five-year high in September, fueled by a surge in new orders. The 5-yr Treasury yield rises further after weak auction, up about 19bps on day to 5.031% and the 2-year yield soared as well to 4.93%. S&P Global said its flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 58.4 this month. That was the highest level since July 2021 and followed a reading of 56.0 in August.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) posted a record close on Tuesday, but failed to eclipse the June 3rd all-time highs. The PHLX semiconductor index (SOX) prices pulled back 1% today but has surged over 14% the last 5 trading days prior since the Fed rate cut and the QQQ’s have spiked from lows of $700 to above $747 on Tuesday (down to 740 today) during this same stretch in what has been a remarkable rise in technology stocks. But the rally has been very concentrated as half of Tuesday’s rise in was attributable to four chipmaking companies: MU, SNDK, AMD and NVDA. Over the last week, the NDX is up 6.4% with half the gain is from FIVE STOCKS (MU, AMD, NVDA, INTC and META).

Interesting stats: 1) @Barchart noted on X, “S&P 500 now has the highest number of stocks with a negative beta in history. This means that individual stocks are doing the opposite of what the index is doing at the highest ever seen.” 2) @Barchart also noted on X, “More than 51% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 200-day moving averages, the worst market breadth since early April.” 3) @bespokeinvest noted on X, “Oil and the S&P have moved in the same direction on fewer days over the past 200 sessions than at any time since 2008.”

• Mortgage rates hit highest level since 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 7.12% from 6.97% for conforming loan balances of 832,750 or less, the MBA said. Mortgage and refinance applications fell, while the share of applications for adjustable-rate mortgages rose. ARMs can carry a fixed rate for up to 10 years but then adjusts based on where the market is at that time.

• December gold fell -$58.00 or -1.33%, to settle at $4,318.40 an ounce while December silver falls -$1.57, or -2.35%, to finish at $64.96 an ounce, both falling as the U.S. dollar gains amid higher U.S. interest-rate expectations. The dollar index (DXY) has been holding above 100 amid rising rate hike fears as October hike odds stand above 50% given further hawkish signals ahead of the October meeting could extend the current pressure.
• Signs that the Fed will press ahead with interest-rate hikes are boosting the U.S. dollar as well as markets have taken note of comments from Fed officials citing the need for more rate increases to tame inflation following last week’s hike, the first in three years. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin suggested yesterday that one hike was not enough to curb inflation. Futures traders anticipate a 53% chance of a rate increase in October, according to CME Group data. The euro dropped below the 1.14 level to lowest levels since late July and the British Pound fell as well.

• However a weaker Treasury auction further pushed yields high as the US sold $70B 5-year notes at high yield 5.033% (highest since 2006), vs. 5.00% when issued prior (3bps tail) with a very weak bid-to-cover ratio 2.21, as primary dealers take 15.77% of U.S. 5-year notes sale, direct 29.92% and indirect 54.31%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit the highest level since 2007, rising over 15ps topping 5.13% (before paring gains) after data showed that US business activity raced to a more than five-year high in September, fueled by a surge in new orders. The 5-yr Treasury yield rises further after weak auction, up about 19bps on day to 5.031% (but ended below 5%) and the 2-year yield soared as well to 4.93% (but finished under 4.9%).

• Restaurant sector: MCD held Investor Day today as shares fell after saying they plan to raise operating margins, launch a new multi-year employee training program and spend billions of dollars supporting franchisees’ equipment and tech upgrades. The plans are part of the fast-food giant’s new growth strategy, called McDonald’s > NEXT. The CEO said they expect industry traffic growth in our wholly owned markets will be flat, while inflation remains elevated CBRL reported Q4 revs fell -2% y/y to $849.3M but topped consensus of $832.7M while EPS of $0.99 came in above y/y thanks in part to tariff refunds; guided 2027 revs $3.32B-$3.4B, in line with expectations and sees EBITDA of $180M-$200M above ests of $180M.
• Leisure sector: RCL said it had agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Caribbean resorts operator Sandals Resorts International for $3 billion, expanding the cruise company’s presence in land-based vacation experiences. FUN shares edged higher after the WSJ reported that activist investor Jana Partners was pushing the theme-park company towards a sale. EXPE announced it would allow Muse to access its platform, permitting users to plan trips through Meta’s personal AI agent.
• Homebuilding sector: KBH reported Q3 adj. EPS of $1.09 (ex-impairments), above consensus of $0.89 as outperformance was primarily driven by the HB EBIT margin 63bps along with interest and JV Income. Negatively, homebuilding revs fell -20% y/y (units -19%, Asp -1%) were in line and unit orders fell -12% y/y vs. consensus -2% while management noted a deterioration in conditions as the quarter progressed with the geopolitical and rate backdrops weighing on consumer sentiment

• Energy sector: BP was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at JPMorgan saying macro tailwinds and Micro renewal present a major opportunity to lower macro procyclicality and high-grade fundamentals into 2028. DVN shares active after CNBC David Faber reported activist Toms Capital is urging Devon Energy to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. Refining stocks have benefitted from surging crack spreads in diesel while they ran plants near full utilization, are among the best gainers in 20206, but prices of VLO, PBF, PSX, MPC, DK, DINO have pulled back the last few days as diesel has made headlines. Diesel cracks hit $100–$118+/bbl at peaks and have since pulled back (versus a more typical $20–30 historically).
• Utility sector: PCG was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS due to the growing risk of inaction on wildfire liability reform this year and the company’s rescinding the long-term EPS growth rate guidance coincident with the strategic review announcement on 9/2.

• Private credit: APO said investors in Apollo Debt Solutions sought to withdraw roughly 14.7% of shares in the latest tender offer, compared with 16.8% in the prior quarter, according to a regulatory filing. The Apollo fund said repurchase requests declined sequentially across both US onshore and offshore investors, and most of them were investors resubmitting unfulfilled requests from prior quarters.
• Consumer Lending/Financial Services: Several Wall Street firms defended the sector, which declined Tuesday on renewed AI-disintermediation fears tied to Meta’s Muse agent. Davidson said the sentiment driven sell off in names like EVER, QNST, TREE, MAX was overdone. The firm said when asked to find an auto policy, Muse routed to a third-party marketplace (Insurify) rather than returning quotes, evidence it lacks direct carrier rating access. The impact was felt across the entire financial services sector yesterday including banks, brokers and insurance (ALL, PGR, SCHW, etc.)
• Payments sector: PAYX missed Q1 revenue estimates at its largest segment, management solutions, reported at $1.21B vs. est. $1.23B, sending shares lower; overall Q1 revs $1.63B was in-line with consensus and EPS of $1.34 just above ests $1.23; expects fiscal 2027 total revenue growth of 5% to 6% and raises fiscal 2027 PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue growth outlook to 7% to 8%.

• BMEA shares fell after the drug developer terminated its previously announced common stock offering and delayed a Phase 1 trial readout for its obesity candidate BMF-650.
• CRDL announced enrollment progress and plans to expand MAVERIC, the Company’s pivotal Phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center trial evaluating CardiolRx for the reduction in risk of recurrence in patients with recurrent pericarditis
• EDIT was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim as updating its model to reflect EDIT-401, which represents a novel approach to Gene editing for severe hypercholesterolemia.
• GRAL shares were halted ahead of an FDA advisory committee meeting to discuss the diagnostic company’s proposed multi-cancer blood test. Grail is seeking FDA approval of Galleri, a blood test that aims to catch cancers before symptoms appear (shares never traded today).
• IMVT announces topline results from proof-of-concept study of IMVT-1402 in cutaneous lupus erythematosus. Immunovant’s proof-of-concept study of IMVT-1402 did not achieve statistical significance on the primary endpoint.
• INNV prices 10M share secondary offering at $9.25 per share (from $10.66 closing price).

• Space & Telecom sector: SPIR awarded $33.2M NOAA contract for Satellite weather data to enhance weather forecasting; says contract potential total value of $66M if all options exercised; VOYG shares fell after announcing intention to offer $350M convertible Senior notes due 2032 and expects to grant option to purchase up to $52.50M additional notes.

• Metals & Mining: broad weakness in gold and silver prices as the US dollar extends gains vs the euro and British pound amid the hawkish FOMC outlook for added rate hikes; shares of gold and silver miners were broadly lower down 3% or more for AEM, AG, B, CDE, FSM, HL, NEM, PAAS.

• SpaceXAI’s Grok Bot AI agent has reached over 400,000 weekly users within a month of launching, Edward Ludlow of Bloomberg reports. By September 14, the Grok Bot hit 418,000 users, which was up 24% from the week prior, according to a presentation viewed by Bloomberg
• Media sector: DIS is raising prices on several of its streaming subscriptions, with users being notified as early as Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. The price of the flagship Disney+ streaming service, without ads, will rise 13% to $21.49 per month.
• AI Infrastructure: UBS initiated coverage with Buy ratings on five data center stocks (HUT, WULF, APLD, CORZ, CIFR) positioned for rapid growth as Ai adoption ramps and model developers’ ability to meet demand remains constrained. Time to power remains the gating factor in scaling compute and their crypto-miner legacies with favorable Grid access has already translated into ~5GW of leased capacity (~$125B in contracted revs), with expansion opportunities for an additional ~12GW. Power pipelines provide an enviable position with Ai infrastructure requirements set to triple to UBSe ~260GW of new data center capacity globally from ’28-30E. UBS’s price targets imply 36% upside potential on average.

• Software sector MSFT was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $575 from $530 saying “open-weight model advancement has boosted management’s LLM-agnostic strategy” as Azure & Copilot keep scaling. In gaming software, APP shares slipped after Edgewater said Q3 Gaming feedback split relatively evenly between studios seeing improving, stable and softer spend scale in Q3

• QCOM unveiled its newest Android phone chipsets, which will be tuned for on-device artificial intelligence and will compete with Apple’s A20 Pro in iPhones. The new chips, under the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 brand name, will be built on TSM 2-nanometer manufacturing process, and will be included in premium smartphones from companies including Motorola, Xiaomi and ZTE.
• SMCI said it is now shipping NVDA NVL72 racks, which include 72 Rubin graphics processors and 36 Vera central processors in a liquid-cooled rack; racks include SMCI’s in-row cooling distribution units and optional rear-door heat exchangers to capture residual heat load