Mid-Morning Look: August 04, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, August 04, 2026

U.S. stock markets are back in record territory for the S&P 500 (new intraday record highs) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as oil prices slide on hopes that a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be on the Horizon, while stronger quarterly earnings/guidance from companies like Palantir and Caterpillar also supported the run. The tech sector (XLK) doing all the heavy lifting up 3% with both industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) modest gains, but all other sectors seeing pullbacks amid another sharp rotation back into the semi/AI trade play with Staples (XLP), REITs (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) down around -1% early. Nasdaq 100 rises over 2% to highest levels since mid-July, the Russell 2000 Smallcap index back above 3,000 as U.S. equity markets on cruise control higher to start August not concerned about yields!

The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on Monday, marking its best first day of a month since October 2022, leaving it within touching distance of a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high as heavyweight constituent Amazon closed above a $3 trillion market capitalization for the first time. Brent Crude tumbles -4.75% to under $80 per barrel (off earlier highs $86.33) and WTI crude falls -5% to $76.30 per Barrel (off highs $82.33) after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicates in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come “today or tomorrow.” Falling oil prices, strong growth data, and lower bond yields were driving gains across most sectors on Monday and appear to be similar drivers again today. There’s plenty to be optimistic about in this stellar earnings season, with S&P 500 companies headed for their strongest average earnings growth since 2021. Treasury yields decline as Treasury Secretary Bessent indicates in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come “today or tomorrow.” The 10-year yield is at 4.665%, down from 4.684% yesterday. The two-year slips to 4.219% from 4.255% and gold prices rise early.

• U.S. June trade deficit -$73.3B was in-line with consensus and compared to the May deficit -$77.6B; June goods deficit $102.11B, services surplus $28.85B; June exports -0.9% vs May -3.2%, imports -1.8% vs May +3.3% as exports $314.73B vs May $317.63B, imports $387.99B vs May $395.28B. The U.S.-China June trade deficit $73.86B vs may surplus $9.57B.
• U.S. June factory orders -0.3% below consensus +0.2% and vs. May -1.1%; June factory orders ex-transportation -0.4% vs May +2.0% (prev +1.9%); June Durables orders revised to +0.5% from +0.3%; June factory orders ex-defense -0.4% vs May -1.1%; U.S. June nondurables orders -1.2% vs May +2.2%. U.S. June nondefense cap orders ex-aircraft revised to +1.2% from +0.9%; June shipments revised to +2.0% from +1.9%

• Large cap drug earnings dominate: MRK Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss )-$0.27); Q2 sales rose 5% Y/y to $16.61B vs. est. $16.36B; Sales of immunotherapy Keytruda rose 5% to $8.37B in Q2; now expects sales of $66.3B-$67.3B for the year, up from its prior outlook of $65.8B-$67B and cuts EPS due to a charge. PFE Q2 adj EPS $0.77 vs. est. $0.68; Q2 revs $15B vs. est. $14.39B; says now expect an additional $1 billion in savings from our ongoing cost realignment program; aim delivering risk-adjusted high single-digit revenue CAGR from year-end 2028 through year-end 2033.
• Consumer Products: CLX Q4 adj EPS $1.66 vs. est. $1.65; Q4 revenue fell -2% y/y to $1.95B vs. est. $1.91B; Q4 gross margin narrowed 5.2% to 41.3%; expects its 2027 net sales to rise 13%-14% vs. est. 12.8% and EPS $5.70-$6.00 vs. est. $5.97; KMB cut its annual sales and profit forecasts citing a significant hit to Q2 sales in China that stemmed from false claims about the quality of some of its diaper brands; Q2 adj EPS $2.12 vs. est. $2.01 and sales $4.189B vs. est. $4.22B; Volumes in North American business slipped 0.3%.
• Retailers: NKE was downgraded to underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $40 from $47 saying Nike’s “Win Now” decisions made in 2026 will hurt profits into the fiscal 2028; also, PVH was downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan as models Q226 EPS of $3.08 (vs. Street $3.07 & management’s $3.00 to $3.10 guidance range) based on reported revenues -3.0% YoY. WMT downgraded from Outperform to Perform at Oppenheimer ahead of earnings saying now sees a less compelling outperformance case shorter term driven by three primary factors: 1) top-line pharmacy headwinds in the Walmart US business; 2) a peakish valuation and 3) Street forecasts already model longer-term guidance.

• AEIS +13%; following a strong beat and Q3 raise, driven by content/share gains across its key growth markets of Semi & Data Center Computing, and in-line with the strong reads from key customers LRCX, AMAT, hyperscalers. For Semi, mgmt. forecasts 2H to be up >50% YoY, suggesting FY26 growth of +32% YoY
• AMRC +27%; Q2 revs of $515.5M and adjusted EBITDA of $62.8M both topped consensus, with EBITDA finishing above the high end of the company’s $58-62M guide along with a record $1.8B of new awards, including $1.2B tied to data Centers, lifted awarded backlog 65% y/y to $4.4B
• CAT +6%; raised its annual revenue growth forecast after beating Q2 profit, benefiting from a buildout of AI data centers that has spurred demand for its power-generation and construction equipment/ Q2 backlog rises to $72.1B; outlook FY sales & revenues mid-to-high teens growth as compared to 2025.
• INSP +21%; shares rose as Q2 revenue was modestly ahead of subdued expectations, as the impact from previously communicated headwinds was somewhat less impactful than estimated and raised its 2026 outlook for revenue and earnings, primarily to account for Q2 outperformance
• PAY +26%; reflecting another beat-and-raise quarter with an acceleration in underlying trends. While FY guide was slightly raised above the beat, 3Q26 guidance came in a bit tighter across the three line items.
• PLTR +21%; on better beat and raise; Q2 revs $1.935B vs. est. $1.8B; Q2 net income $1.065B and sees FY adjusted income from operations $4.88B-$4,89B; guides FY revenue $8.15B-$8.158B vs. est. $7.69B and above the prior forecast of $7.65B-$7.66B; guides Q3 revs $2.16B-$2.164B vs. est. $2B; Sales to U.S. commercial customers were up 149% in the second quarter.
• VOYG +24%; as Q2 revs rose to $52.75M vs. est. $48,23M; posted “record” quarterly revenue of $52.7M, increasing 51% sequentially from the first quarter, and “record” quarterly bookings of $113.0M, resulting in a 2.1x Book-to-Bill ratio; raises FY26 revenue view to $275M-$305M,vs. consensus $240.81M
• ZBRA +18%; after Q2 EPS and revs topped consensus and raises FY26 sales growth forecast to between 14%-16%, up from prior forecast of 10%-14% and sees full year adj. EPS in the range of $20.75 to $21.25, up from previous outlook of $18.30 to $18.70 (est. $18.56)

• CLPT -13%; shares fell after Q2 revenue of $10.9M (+18.1% Y/Y), missing consensus of $12.7M, with EPS of ($0.38) vs. consensus ($0.29); IRRAflow drove growth while organic revenue declined ~9% Y/Y on a tough biologics comparison.
• FIS -6%; after weaker guide as sees Q3 revenue between $3.41B-$3.44B, below consensus of $3.51B and EPS expected $1.58-$1.62, below market expectations of $1.65 saying they temporarily curtailed share repurchases and paused tuck-in M&A activity following Total Issuing Solutions acquisition.
• ICHR -7%; Q2 revs rose 24% Y/y to $294.78M vs. est. $300.2M; Q2 adj EPS $0.03 vs. est. $0.31; guides Q3 adjusted EPS $0.40-$0.50 vs. est. $0.41 and revs $315M-$345M vs. est. $314.52M; said expects continued sequential growth in revenue, gross margin and EPS for 2026.
• NKE -2%; was downgraded to underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and cut tgt to $40 from $47 saying Nike’s “Win Now” decisions made in 2026 will hurt profits into the fiscal 2028
• STRL -4%; Q2 beat by 21% on revenue (+90% y/y) benefiting from Stone Ridge and EBITDA beat by 13%, less than revenue beat as E-Infra margins came in lower. BTB was 1.5x on booked backlog, 1.4x ex Stone Ridge. Key point is margin miss on E-Infra and lower guided margins