Mid-Morning Look: August 20, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, August 20, 2026

U.S. stocks are pulling back after rebounding on Wednesday as a resumption of higher oil prices and Treasury yields, coupled with weakness in Wal-Mart post earnings is pressuring sentiment. The Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.65%) sector is under pressure, led by weakness in Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) as shares fall over -8% on monthly comp sales disappoint/miss and posted its weakest sales growth in 6 years (though raised its guidance for the year). Technology remains in downdraft as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down a 5th straight day early and battling the 50d support at $713.10. Also weighing on market sentiment a further climb in oil prices on more tough talk by the U.S., which is raising inflation fears again as Treasury yields rebound after tumbling Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury announced they would double the size of buybacks for long dated maturities. President Trump announced plans overnight to subject Iran to an “economic D-Day” due to its refusal to capitulate despite military strikes and an American blockade targeting its oil exports. The commentary pushed the price of oil to the highest levels in a little over 3 weeks nearing $90 per barrel for WTI. Both Brent and WTI benchmarks hit their highest since July 24 and gained for a fifth straight session. The September WTI contract expires later on Thursday. Bitcoin priced surged above 72K and unleashed the biggest wave of short liquidations in records going back to 2021 (Zerohedge tweets: “Yesterday’s move in crypto triggered $2.73B in short liquidations across the perps market, the largest crypto short-liquidation event on record”).

Fed minutes showed yesterday that many Federal Reserve policymakers believe that raising the benchmark rate may be necessary if inflation doesn’t decline. The minutes show how divided policymakers stand about the path forward for rates.  Only “some” of the policymakers felt that the current rate policy might not be “sufficiently restrictive” to achieve the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. In July, three Fed presidents dissented against the decision to hold interest rates steady, arguing rates should rise. The U.S. dollar was pinned near a three-month low after the Treasury Department moved to calm a bond market selloff that ‌had pushed long-end yields to their highest since 2007. The ‌dollar index (DXY) bounces off 98.723, its lowest level since May 14. The euro was at $1.1692 around highest level since mid-May. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to a 19-year high of 5.337% earlier this week, fell below 5.2% yesterday but at 5.22%

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions for August surges to 47.4, topping consensus 25.0 and vs July 41.4, while prices paid index (inflation) for August falls to 40.9 vs July 53.9; new orders index August 30.1 vs July 37.0; employment index August 27.9 (highest since April 2022) vs July 10.0; six-month business conditions August 73.6 vs July 34.4; Philadelphia Fed six-month capital expenditures outlook August 48.2 vs July 30.1.
• July leading economic indicators (LEI) rose +0.2% vs. consensus +0.1% while June leading economic indicators revised to (-0.1%).

• Telecom/Tower sector: AMT and CCI were both upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight in Towers at Barclays saying they turn positive on Towers given decade-low valuations combined with multiple catalysts that could cause an immediate Re-rating of shares. Barclays believes the pace of AT&T’s deployment in 2027 will be the biggest swing factor in American Tower’s domestic revenue in 2027. The company’s Europe and Africa exposure are also contributing to its above-peer growth in 2026, and this will continue in 2027.
• In Insurance sector: PGR was upgraded to Outperform, and ALL downgraded to Underperform at KBW Inc saying both are significantly outperforming their longer-term combined ratio targets, so it thinks investors will increasingly base their valuations on normalized earnings. In that context, KBW expects both ALL’s recently accelerating and PGR’s recently decelerating Y/ Y personal Auto PIF growth rates to stabilize soon, which should boost PGR’s multiple and pressure ALL’s. Separately, ALL announces July estimated catastrophe losses of $682M, $539M after-tax.
• Sporting Goods retail: shares of DKS, NKE both under pressure after British sportswear and fashion retailer JD Sports (JDSPY) cut its profit outlook after a slump in Q2 sales in its key North American market; said Q2 comp sales fell (-3.1%) in the 13 weeks to August 1, having fallen (-2.5%) in its first quarter. They were down (-6.8%) in North America and (-2.7%) lower in Europe; also highlighted a “highly promotional” market.

• COIN +6%; as names levered to Bitcoin surge behind prices with MSTR, HOOD, BMNR, IBIT and others rising as Bitcoin tops $72,000 to highest levels since early June and tops its 200dma resistance
• DE +4%; delivered a 3Q beat ($5.10/$12.6B vs. $4.70/$10.73B), raised its FY26 net income guidance in line with consensus estimates and signaled confidence in a 2026 trough. P+PA beat lowered expectations both top- and bottom-line, with tariff recovery an estimated 60bps benefit to margins.
• NDSN +5%; reported Q3 EPS $3.25 above est. $3.09 while revs rose 10% y/y to $818M vs. est. $779.4M; Q3 EBITDA increased 10% to $262M; raises FY26 EPS view to $11.80-$12.00 from prior $11.30-$11.80 (est. $11.59) and boosts FY26 rev view to $3.035B-$3.075B, from $2.93B-$3.01B prior (est. $2.98B).
• SCSC +15%; shares jumped after earnings results (Q4 sales +17% y/y to $953M topping ests $802M) and said to acquire MicroAge, a leading IT solutions integrator, managed services provider (MSP), and digital transformation partner in an all cash deal valued at $220M.
• SMCI +2%; announces completion of Independent investigation and continued Enhancement of export compliance program and says no evidence current Senior management had knowledge of alleged diversion scheme/no direct sales of export-controlled products to restricted parties.

• AMRC -9%; after announces the departure of its CFO.
• COTY -10%; after Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.02)misses est. loss (-$0.01) as Q4 revs rose only 1% y/y to $1.27B but did tops est. $1.19B; guides Q1 EPS $0.11-$0.13 below est. $0.14 and guided Q1 revenue to decline by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage on a like-for-like basis and announced CFO change.
• MRNA -17%; pulling back/profit taking after shares surged around 177% on Wednesday on positive cancer therapy vaccine data with MRK that lifted the whole mRNA complex.
• SPCX -4%; next IPO-related lock-up release today, Thursday, August 20, 2026, involving up to ~319M shares.
• WMT -8%; Walmart-only U.S. stores Q2 comp sales ex-gas +2.6%, missing consensus est +3.8% though raised its annual targets, as sees FY27 net sales outlook to 4.0%-5.0% growth in constant currency (vs prior 3.5%-4.5%) and ups FY27 adjusted operating income outlook to 7.0%-8.5% growth in constant currency
• WOLF -11%; shares slipped after results as Q4 revs fell -24% y/y to $149.6M v. est. $150M; as GAAP gross margin was negative -25%, worsening 12% y/y and non-GAAP gross margin was negative -20%; sees Q1 revenue $140M-$160M, vs. est. $150.4M.