Mid-Morning Look: July 29, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, as oil prices spiked ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision which is due at 2:00 pm et and FOMC chief Warsh speaking at 2:30. Oil is up 7% on Iran’s surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in the Mideast while President Trump responded, saying the U.S. will hit Iran hard. The new war developments come ahead of this afternoon’s Fed interest rate decision where market odds are for 64% rates staying on hold versus 36% hike (increased over last week amid oil spike). No economic data today as all eyes on the Fred meeting, but data picks up tomorrow with GDP, jobless claims and the monthly PCE inflation data. Earnigns plentiful again overnight and this morning with big names out tonight including META and MSFT as Wall Street watches for capex guide (lower Capex hurts AI suppliers while higher Capex guides pressures free cash flow (FCF) for the hyperscalers as was evident from GOOGL last week). So far, of the 190 S&P 500 companies reported thus far for S&P 500, at 88% beat vs 81% LY and avg beat 11% vs 15% LY, avg miss -15% vs -35% LY while avg yr/yr earnings growth 23% vs 14% LY. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -930 points to 61,434while the Kospi tumbled another 6% or 58 points to 887.20. The South Korean finance minister said today to maintain 24-hour stock market monitoring system and to immediately introduce additional measures on single-stock leveraged ETFs/impose cap on investment in single-stock leverage ETFs.

• Auto Sector: Ford Motor (F) Q2 adj EPS beat at $0.42 vs. est. $0.35 while revs fall -4% Y/y to $48.3B but top estimates $45.86B and raises 2026 operating profit to $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5B; BMW (BMWYY) said it plans to cut 8,000 white-collar jobs in Germany through a voluntary severance program following a plunge in sales in China while reported a roughly 5% decline in second-quarter sales, driven by a 30% drop in vehicle sales in China. POAHY recently agreed to cut 5,000 jobs, while VWAGY is looking to shed as many as 50,000 white-collar staff the WSJ reported. KMX was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as above seasonal sales trajectory and stronger than expected price elasticity likely to drive upside revisions and support multiple near-term, with further support until post-Q2 investor day. In auto dealers and operators PAG (beats) and MNRO (mixed) also active on earnings.
• Paper & Packaging sector: after a good run on price increases, SW shares fell on results as Q2 EPS $0.35 missed the est. $0.42 on better revs $8.03B vs. est. $7.93B; posted Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,140B and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 14.2%; said quarter was impacted by significantly higher input costs, particularly Freight (IP, PKG, GPK other paper names). Separately, Citigroup said after IP & SW announced price increases for Na Containerboard over the last 24 hours, according to RISI (7/28), IP is out with +$80/ton for Containerboard in September, along with +$80/ton for medium and +$130/ton for whitetop linerboard; SW is seeking +$100/ton for Containerboard and Kraft Paper.

• CAKE +9%; as delivered an strong quarter and raised its ’26 sales/margin guidance; comp store sales in 2Q26 (+5.8%) outpunched elevated expectations, with management anticipating accelerating momentum for 3QE (to +7% range vs. Street’s +1.8%)
• F +4%; as Q2 adj EPS beat at $0.42 vs. est. $0.35 while revs fall -4% Y/y to $48.3B but top estimates $45.86B and raises 2026 operating profit to $10B-$11B, up from a prior range of $8.5B-$10.5B; Q2 core profit rose nearly 20% to $2.5B
• MANH +23%; shares jumped on the company’s 3rd straight quarter of record bookings, Q/Q top-line acceleration, a bigger cloud subscription beat than recent quarters and raised its full-year outlook.
• MDLZ +4%; reported stronger than expected Q2 EPS of $0.73 and marked a return to volume/mix growth and the company raised its FY26 sales guidance, now at least +2% growth, up from flat to +2% previously, while the EPS outlook was reiterated.
• TER +4%; shares jumped on results reported adj. 2Q EPS of $2.47 vs. consensus $2.09 and our estimate of $2.07. TER guided above consensus, with sales and EPS expected 18% and 29% above consensus at the midpoint, respectively.

• CSGP -14%; downgraded by three firms after results as missed on bookings for the fourth straight quarter and cut its FY26 revenue guidance while Q2 revenue came in weaker than expected; also notes existing overhangs tied to multifamily competition, Homes.com scalability, and AI disruption fears.
• HUM -8%; shares fell after Q2 adjusted profit of $7.61 per share, above analysts’ average estimate of $7.22 per share, and revs beat handily as well, but the company only reaffirms 2026 adj. EPS forecast of at least $9 saying they anticipates a y/y decline in 2026 adj. profit due to lower government bonus payments tied to Medicare plan ratings.
• LII -8%; as cuts its annual profit forecast to $23-$24 per share from $23.50-$25 prior after challenging residential market conditions weighed on its Home Comfort Solutions business in the second quarter; said Q2 sales in its Home Comfort Solutions segment fall 7.3% to $935.6M y/y.
• LMND -20%; CFO leaves; Q2 EPS loss (-$0.56) vs. est. loss (-$0.56); Q2 revenue rose 79% Y/y to $294.4M vs. est. $291.52M primarily driven by a 32% increase in in force premium and higher premium retention following reduced quota share cession rates; sees Q3 revenue $323M-$326M, vs. consensus $320.69M
• MAS -10%; shares declined following mixed Q2 results as EPS of $1.64 topped estimates but revs of $1.99B missed the consensus $2.09B; said the anticipated full year net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds of approximately $85 million has led them to raise year EPS guidance.
• PG -3%; forecast slower revenue and profit growth in fiscal 2027; sees FY27 core EPS $6.89-$7.11 vs. consensus $7.05 following mixed results as EPS beat for Q4 but revs of $21.2B just missed estimates; sees FY27 sales growing in range of 1% to 3%, compared with 3.3% growth in 2026.
• PSN -41%; shares tumbled after Q2 revs fall -1% y/y to $1/6B vs est. $1.62B; Adjusted EPS for Q2 was negative (-$0.06) vs. est. +$0.76, missed expectations, impacted by portfolio and JV charges; Q2 adj Ebitda fell -72% y/y to $42M missing the $155M estimate; lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance.
• VFC -17%; reports bigger-than-expected quarterly loss of (-$0.27) vs. est. (-$0.22), hurt by elevated costs and weak demand for Vans brand though revs of $1.67B topped ests $1.64B; said incurred $193.8M in total restructuring charges in connection with restructuring plan.
• VRT -11%; beat the 2Q26 consensus EPS estimate, as margin outperformance more than offset lower sales, and raised FY26 sales/adj. EPS midpoints 1%/3% above the Street respectively. Revenue performance in 2Q reflected minor timing shifts related to multi-phased project execution and temporary supply chain congestion weighing on shares.