Mid-Morning Look: June 16, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

U.S. stocks stay near elevated levels, a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 and PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) all closed at record highs while the Nasdaq surged 3% and the S&P 500 remains close to its all time bests. Global markets continue to trust that the situation in the Middle East is calming down but will want verification that any agreement is permanent. The current interim deal would extend the ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February. Negotiators would address difficult issues like the future of Iran’s nuclear program during the next phase of talks, which is expected to take place in Switzerland on Friday after the formal signing of the framework deal. Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf are expected to attend Friday’s formal signing in Geneva. Oil prices have tumbled in recent days on the news while precious metals/crypto/stocks have jumped. The other story is the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, which priced 555M shares last Thursday at $135 valued at 41.7 trillion and has surged the last 3 days to highs around $225 today with its mkt cap topping that of AMZN and MSFT in recent days above $2.7 trillion to become the 4^th largest company (option began trading today).

In central bank news, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, the highest since 1995, in a 7 to 1 vote, at the first meeting in its modern history held without the governor in the room (due to illness). Thirty years of effectively free money in the world’s third largest economy, repriced. Policymakers highlighted upside inflation risks from higher oil prices, firm wage growth and rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile the RBA held its policy rate at 4.35%. Meanwhile, US markets await the FOMC meeting tomorrow where no changes are expected but is the first meeting with new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm.

Oil prices fell about 4% to fresh three-month lows as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz alongside weaker physical demand and scant details on a preliminary deal to end the Iran war. WTI‘s intra-day nadir of $76.88 was the lowest since March 10. Before the war started on February 28, Brent and WTI futures were trading around $65-70 per barrel. Oil prices sank nearly 5% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an interim deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been released.

• May import prices rose +1.9% above consensus +1.0% and vs April +2.0%; May export prices +1.3% (consensus +1.2%) vs April +3.5% (prev +3.3%). May non-petroleum import prices +0.8%, y/y +3.8%.

• In REITs: Bank America with several changes as SKT was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral after having risen 15.1% over the past month and says it now sees more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in retail REITs; upgraded EXR to Neutral, more positive on operating trends for this peak leasing season; WPC upgraded to Neutral as believes warrants a higher multiple given its improved internal and external growth; HPP downgraded to Underperform citing valuation for the downgrade following the stock’s recent rally and KRC upgraded to Buy saying leasing momentum is improving across Kilroy’s markets, particularly in the San Francisco Bay area, with AI as the driving force.
• In Exchanges: CBOE shares pulled back again as the company along with CME faces perceived competitive risk of perpetual futures. Recall on May 29^th the CFTC approved Kalshi’s BTCPERP (Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, no expiration) as the first true regulated perpetual on a U.S. exchange, plus relief for Coinbase to offer access to crypto perps via affiliates. Trading on Kalshi went live shortly after (early June). This shifted popular offshore-style perpetual futures (high-leverage, continuous trading) into a regulated U.S. framework for the first time, starting with Bitcoin

• LION +9%; after a report by Semafor said that NFLX lost a bidding war for ROKU to FOXA citing people involved in the sale process. Netflix is also one of a number of media companies interested in buying LION, but the company has not put in a formal indication of interest.
• MBLY +3%; after saying it would launch its own robotaxi service in the U.S. in 2027 – the company is planning to prepare an initial fleet of about 100 vehicles targeted for deployment in a major metropolitan U.S. market beginning in 2027.
• RXT +7%; and AMD sign definitive agreement for phased deployment of 30 MW of AMD AI Compute; RXT also to terminate about 15% of global workforce as estimates one-time expenses of $14M-$19M in 2026 for realignment.
• SPCX +13%; just three days removed from pricing 555M shares at $135 in its initial public offering, said it would acquire coding agent software operating firm Cursor for $60 billion.
• YUM +2%; enters into agreements to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7B to private equity firm LongRange Capital and approves incremental $4B share repurchase. Pizza hut in mainland China to be acquired by YUMC for a cash consideration of $1.2B.

• ERIC -3%; as  announces that Per Narvinger has been appointed President and CEO by the Board of Directors as Borje Ekholm has decided to step down as CEO of Ericsson.
• EWTX -2%; shares tumbled after announced top-line results from the 12-week Phase 2 Part D CIRRUS-HCM trial of EDG-7500 in obstructive (oHCM) and nonobstructive (nHCM) HCM.
• HUN -13%; and OLN have entered into a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals. Under the terms, Huntsman shareholders will receive 0.5476 shares in Olin for every one share of Huntsman. Implied offer price of $13.85 per share is about 12.8% below HUN prior close.
• NFLX -3%; on reports it missed out on ROKU acquisition to FOX.
• PLAY -3%; shares fell after results as Q1 adj EPS $0.22 misses the est. $0.60 on weaker revs $559.2Mm vs. est. $580.6Mm and comp store sales declined -5.4% y/y, below management’s prior commentary, while Q2 trends remain negative at approximately -4% quarter-to-date.