Mid-Morning Look: June 25, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Technology strength led US futures higher overnight as blowout quarterly earnings and guidance from memory chip maker Micron (MU) revived the AI trade, with shares surging as much as 18% this morning, boosting memory/semi names (SNDK, WDC) after two days of selling pressure on capex spending fears and debt. Higher margins for memory demand boosting MU shares…but having a negative impact on those that need memory for products. This morning, Apple (AAPL) announced product price hikes for iPads and MacBooks noting the Ai data center boom has caused unprecedented demand for memory and storage, forcing price increases for them, no longer to eat the costs/passing them to consumers. So, from Micron seen as AI trade/tech market savior last night…the narrative this morning has changed to them being a company stealing margin/cash flow from others (like AAPL, DELL, GOOGL, META, MSFT) as those shares are all broadly lower. Fears are that other companies, like Apple, will be forced to raise prices, forcing costs on consumers – which is why the market reversed lower as Nasdaq futures went up more than 2.3% overnight, to down as much as -1.4% this morning. Strength overseas, as The Japanese Nikkei Index surged 3,191 points or 4.61% behind the jump in technology shares to 72,366, while the South Korea Kospi, jumped 84 points or 6.17% to 1,454 helped by memory chip maker SK Hynix and Samsung. The US dollar climbs to near 2-year high of 161.93 Yen before paring gains while Treasury yields fell as U.S. indicators send mixed signals while oil prices slip below pre-war levels. May PCE inflation meet consensus, while accelerating to 4.1% from 3.8%. The core PCE price index, which rose 0.3% m/m in May, was in line with economist expectations. Falling energy costs are expected to cool future inflation going forward as oil prices fell below pre-US/Iran war levels this morning with WTI crude below $70 per barrel. May durable goods orders fall -4.5%, versus consensus of a -4% contraction. A third estimate raises 1Q GDP growth to 2.1% from 1.6%, compared to estimates of 1.7%. Weekly jobless claims slip to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 227,000, versus consensus of 223,000. The 10-year yield declines to 4.371% from 4.414% earlier while the two-year slips to 4.107% from 4.162%. The Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 extending record high runs while Nasdaq is lower.

• Q1 final U.S. GDP (third estimate) reported at +2.1%, annual rate, vs. +1.6% in the second estimate and +0.5% in the prior quarter. Q1 Personal consumption expenditures reported at +0.5%, annual rate, vs. +1.4% in prior estimate and +1.9% in previous quarter. Corporate profits rose at a rate of 0.5% during the quarter, compared to -0.4% in the previous estimate and +5.7% seen in Q4 2025. US Q1 consumer spending +0.5%, final Q1 GDP deflator +3.6% (consensus +3.5%).
• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 from 227,000 prior week and vs consensus 225,000; the 4-week moving average climbed to 224,250 from 223,500 prior week; continued claims climbed to 1.821M from 1.8M prior and vs. consensus of 1.800M; the US insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%.
• Personal Income for May rose +0.7%, above consensus +0.4% and vs April unchanged while Personal Spending also rose +0.7%, topping consensus +0.6% and vs April +0.4%; May Personal saving rate 3.0% vs April 3.0%.

• Bank sector: Last night, The Federal Reserve announced that 32 of the nation’s largest banks are well positioned to weather a severe economic downturn and continue lending, as firms could absorb over $700 billion in hypothetical losses and remain above minimum capital requirements. The results of the central bank’s annual “stress test” found large banks saw their capital levels fall 1.6%, but their levels remained in excess of the minimum requirements. Following the results a number of large banks announced dividend increases. The average increase in quarterly dividends for the large banks was 10%, with MS increasing its dividend by 15%, WFC by 11%, JPM by 10%, and USB by 4%.
• In Beverage sector: BF was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclay’s citing valuation, saying Brown-Forman’s risk/reward proposition is appropriately captured at current share levels. The firm upgraded KDP to Overweight from Equal Weight (tgt to $36 from $30) saying the company’s improved leverage and waning transaction uncertainty brings opportunity for a share re-rating as the planned coffee business separation draws closer.

• BB +22%; after Q2 revs +26% y/y to $152.9M and raised its annual revenue forecast to $594M-$621M range from prior $584M-$611M view as forecasts annual QNX revs $295M-$2312M from prior $290M-$307M following the completion of its turnaround efforts. QNX has a backlog of almost $1 billion in future royalties.
• CAT +4%; extending gains as AI industrial play and adding to the Dow Jones strength; while also seeing broad strength in ag machinery names AGCO, CNH, DE.
• IBM +3%; introduced the world’s first sub-1 nanometer (nm) chip technology, featuring a revolutionary transistor architecture at the 0.7 nm, or 7 angstrom nodes. IBM’s new sub-1 nm chip packs nearly 100B transistors onto a chip the size of a fingernail, nearly twice the density of IBM’s 2 nm chip, unveiled in 2021.
• KYMR +19%; said it has completed enrollment for the mid-stage trial of its experimental treatment, KT-621, to treat moderate to severe atopic dermatitis. Enrollment finished earlier than expected, allowing Kymera to bring forward its topline data to year-end 2026 – six months ahead of the previous mid-2027 guidance.
• MKC +4%; Q2 sales and profit topped estimates ($0.80/$1.94B vs. est. $0.69/$1.91B) on strong demand for its spices and seasonings and reaffirms annual profit and sales forecast.
• MU +9%; earnings and guidance crushed estimates and revived the AI trade this morning. Micron reported strong FQ3 (May) results and FQ4 (Aug) guidance, which exceeded as DRAM/NAND pricing increase low 60%/mid 80% q/q; Guidance for May-Qtr revenue of $41.5B (+74% Q/Q, +346% Y/Y) crushed Street consensus ($35.6B).
• QCOM +5%; raised its FY29 non-handset revenue target to ~$40B, roughly double its prior goal, including >$15B from AI data center infrastructure, and now sees FY29 EPS of >$18 vs. Street estimates of ~$14.75.
• TECH +22%; agreed to be acquired by Merck KGaA for $73 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of about $11.3 billion. The offer price represents a 24% premium on TECH’s last close. The acquisition will be funded through a combination of existing cash and proceeds from new debt.

• BABA -3%; 16-month lows and adds to yesterday weakness after Anthropic reportedly accused the Chinese technology giant of “illicitly” accessing its artificial intelligence model. Anthropic sent a letter to the White House officials alleging that Alibaba was waging an industrial-sized effort to illicitly access its Claude models, according to Bloomberg.
• DRI ; posted mixed Q4 results as EPS $3.66 beat est. $3.63b and sales just miss at $3.72B vs. est. $3.73B and guided annual EPS from continuing operations between $11.10-$11.35 below est. $11.40.
• PSNY -3%; shares fell after the U.S. denied authorization to sell its vehicles in the country from model year 2027 onwards
• SPRY -28%; after the company said its neffy nasal spray failed to secure commercial Insurance coverage. The company said no new commercial formulary additions or coverage decisions were issued for neffy— its epinephrine nasal spray for the emergency treatment of severe allergic reactions—in the July 1, 2026, cycle.
• TCOM -14%; shares fell after results as Q1 EPS/sales topped consensus but guided Q2 sales $2.137B-$2.241B, below $2.5B consensus and for Q2 said expects y/y total net revenue growth to decelerate to approximately 3%–8%, with a corresponding impact on margins and bottom-line results.
• TSHA -7%; as priced 32.5M shares of common stock priced to the public at $6.00 per share.