Mid-Morning Look: October 29, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, October 29, 2026

U.S. stocks are notably lower, especially in tech/Ai/semis (giving back prior day gains) following last night’s earnings as investors appear to be shooting first and asking questions later with some incredibly violent moves to the downside in a handful of large cap plays including FTNT, GOOGL and NOW (among others). The volatility in tech/AI is unsettling with massive swings daily as it feels nothing is “safe” right now. If security, software and mega-cap Internet were supposed to be the hiding spots into earnings, that trade is getting challenged pretty quickly with FTNT and GOOGL stock reactions (as well as derivative sectors off it like neoclouds, ai infrastructure, etc.) Samsung also declined on earnings and is dragging down optical and memory related stocks…not much good news early for tech. U.S. Treasury yields ease further after US PCE data; yield on 10-year Treasury note last down 2.74 basis points at 5.02%. Smallcap Russell 2000 rises over 1%, helped by the better PCE inflation data this morning.

Euro falls to 17-month low around $1.11 after the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady, as expected, and refrained from sending signals about the prospect of future tightening. The ECB said financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth. Despite higher energy prices, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable, and wages don’t show a material response yet, it said. Oil prices fell, paring gains a day earlier, as hopes for peace talks took the edge off renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from escalating regional conflict. Another busy round of earnings tonight with Amazon and Intel headlining a very busy night.

Helping offset the tech wreckage, 8:30 AM data came in constructive: Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, above the 3.2% consensus and up from 2.2% prior, while weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 (vs. 199,000 consensus) from 195,000 the prior week; the September Core PCE Price Index rose in line at +0.3% M/M, up from +0.2% in August, keeping the Fed’s inflation fight in view even as growth surprises to the upside. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.98%, the 30-year is down 5 basis points to 5.311%, the dollar index is little changed at 102.27, gold is off $11.00 to $4,040.60 an ounce.

• US advance Q3 consumer spending rose +3.8% while inflation data was better as Q3 PCE price index +2.1% (consensus +2.6%), Q3 core PCE +2.5% (consensus +2.4%); Q3 PCE price index ex-food/energy/housing +2.4% and Q3 PCE services price index ex-energy/housing +2.9%.
• US advance Q3 GDP final sales +1.7% (consensus +2.0%), advance Q3 GDP deflator +2.2% (consensus +3.5%).
• Sept personal Income rose +0.2% (vs. consensus +0.3%) and compared to Aug +0.3% (prev +0.2%), while Sept Personal Spending +0.5% (vs. consensus +0.6%); Sept real consumer spending unchanged vs Aug +0.5% (prev +0.6%).
• Sept overall PCE price index +0.5% (consensus +0.5%) vs Aug +0.3% (prev +0.3%) and Sept core PCE price index +0.3% (consensus +0.3%) vs Aug +0.3% (prev +0.2%)

• Auto sector: Ford Motor (F) delivered a Q3 revenue and EBIT beat and raised FY26 EBIT guidance, but higher commodity, logistics and memory costs create an estimated $2B headwind in 2027, limiting EBIT growth to roughly flat. Auto retailer ORLY Q3 EPS of $0.97 grew 14% with comp sales climbing 7.2% (+5.6% last year), $0.04 better than consensus while raising ’26 EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.35 (vs. $3.20-$3.30 and for 11% growth at midpoint); LKQ shares active on earnings and said it has suspended a review of strategic alternatives, including a potential sale of its Specialty segment. CVNA shares jumped after reported a sound beat across all major metrics, but expenses were a bit heavier than expected across vehicle operations. TWI shares tumble as Q3 sales $335M miss the $449M consensus on consumer segment softness.
• Transport sector: package delivery giant FDX raised its profit/sales guidance for the year saying adj earnings will be $18-$18.60 a share, up from a prior forecast range topping out at $18.10, and now sees revenue growth of about 12% from 11%. For the quarter, FDX adjusted earnings rose to $3.74 (topping est. $3.38) though express margin fell to 6.6% from 6.8% a year earlier; railroad CP 3Q a bit softer than expected, but 4Q outlook for MSD volumes and sub-60 OR is generally in line with consensus; 2027 should benefit from incremental volume growth and operating leverage.
• Ag machinery: CAT shares tumbled as Q3 adj EPS $7.20 tops consensus $7.03 while Q3 revenue $20.7B vs. est. $20.69B; outlook Q4 sales & revenues moderate sales growth as compared to Q4 2025; investors turn cautious on AI boom; scrutiny grows over data center spending and returns; AGCO comments after Q3 results shy of consensus, ““the weakest global industry demand environment in more than a decade”…”elevated input costs and uncertainty around commodity markets and the trade environment pushed industry demand below the last cyclical trough”

• CMG +7%; delivered better-than-expected Q3 results, including SSS of +2.1% that were modestly above the Street/buyside expectations of 1.5%, though October trends have softened, and +2% guidance for overall Q4 comps appears lighter.
• CROX +22%; upside to both top and bottom-line and big upside to the out-quarter top and bottom-line guide as well; 3Q EPS of $3.69 vs Consensus $3.31 and operating income nicely above (7% beat) while revs beat by 4%; Q4 EPS guide above at $3.35 vs. consensus $3.11 and revs.
• CVNA +16%; shares jumped after reported a sound beat across all major metrics, but expenses were a bit heavier than expected across vehicle operations.
• GKOS +25%; shares jumped as delivered a ~26% rev beat (+58%y/y), substantial profit upside, a big ’26 guidance raise & an above-CNS $1B initial ’27 outlook; Epioxa rev ($53M vs. $17M CNS) topped elevated ($40M+) buyside expectations per Truist.
• KLAC +6%; reported beat-and-raise results reflecting accelerating 2H26 growth as incremental supply comes online to support strong Ai-driven demand; mgmt expects 2026 WFE to be mid-$150B range and 2027 WFE of $200B+.
• LITE +2%; after Bloomberg reported MRVL is in advanced discussions to acquire Lumentum, a potential megadeal amid the race to scale up AI buildout. An agreement could be announced as soon as next week, noting that Lumentum has a market value of roughly $83B while Marvell has a market value around $221B. https://tinyurl.com/37apm2at
• MA +4%; shares rally after Q3 results top consensus while Mastercard’s gross dollar volume – the value of all transactions processed on its platform – jumped 7% in the third quarter to $3 trillion; Cross-border volumes jumped 11% in the quarter on a local currency basis.
• NCLH +11%; raises full-year profit forecast and beats Q3 expectations, helped by stronger-than-expected last-minute bookings and higher onboard spending; now sees FY26 EPS of roughly $1.70, versus $1.50 forecast previously and follows a Q3 EPS and rev beat for quarter.
• TDOC +22%; reported a top- and bottom-line beat (upper end of the revenue guide range and above the adj. EBITDA guide range). In the BetterHelp segment, insurance revenue exceeded expectations as TDOC makes progress expanding provider capacity/scaling access.

• FTNT -23%; shares tumbled on results, weighing on the security software/cyber sector after posting Q3 product revenue growth of 37%, compared to a 52% growth in previous quarter while also cut its FY26 service revenue forecast to $5.15B-$5.17B from prior view of $5.18B-$5.22B.
• GOOGL -12%; shares fell after earnings miss, following weaker search advertising revs ($82B fell short of $83.4B est.) as greater AI Mode usage slowed search advertising growth, and mounting AI costs drove a Q3 revenue miss ($127.6B vs. ests. $128.2B) and deeper cash burn (Negative free cash flow reached -$9.1B vs expectations for near break-even, and widening from $5.9B q/q).
• IOVA -26%; updated iov-lun-202 results and adds Precision til strategy for second-line metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer; iov-lun-202 cohorts 1 and 2 complete enrollment; planned SBLA for lifileucel in 2027; reports 24.6% ORR in 69 non-squamous MNSCLS patients in updated results.
• MSFT -1%; as forecast strong cloud growth (sees Q2 Azure revenue growth of 49%-50% vs 47.6% expected) and its free cash flow beat expectations (reported at $18.6B vs. est. $8.54B), easing concerns over AI spending; overall total sales forecast for Q3 $96B-$97.1B tops $95.6B estimate.
• NOW -23%; shares tumbled after Q3 adj EPS $1.00 misses estimates of $1.02 on slightly better revs $4.11B vs. est. $4.09B, though they posted net income of $277M, or 27c a share, down from $502M, or 48c y/y; Q2 RPOs rose 20.5% to $13.65B topping the $13.56B estimate.
• SFM -18%; as missed a depressed Q3 bar and deemed recent comp weakness to be more company-specific vs cyclical as the co outlined a reinvestment plan focused on price, opening the door to a ~150+ bps Y/ Y margin decline in 2027 (prompts downgrade to Sector Perform at RBC).
• TWI -25%; shares tumble as Q3 sales $335M miss the $449M consensus on consumer segment softness.
• XRX -39%; after suspended its dividend and cut full-year profit and cash flow guidance amid higher costs; now sees 2026 adj operating income at $450-475M, down from $555-605M and forecasts 2026 free cash flow of $50-100M, down from $250M.