Mid-Morning Look: September 04, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Friday, September 04, 2026

U.S. stocks are slipping after a stronger-than-expected August jobs reading raises expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this month. August payrolls grew by 162,000 versus the consensus of 53,000, while July’s previously reported job decline of -23,000 was revised to show a gain +21,000. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped in reaction to the job creation while the unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. The data adds to expectations that the Fed could raise rates this month, although inflation gauges next week (CPI, PPI) will also be influential. Yields had been dropping before the data and sharply reversed course. The 30-year yield is at 5.24%, the 10-year at 4.77% (after topped 4.8% post data) and the two-year at 4.37% (after highs above 4.412 after data).

Big jump in Treasury yields following a much stronger-than-expected August jobs report (nonfarm jobs added +162K vs. est. +55K and private payrolls +127K vs. est. +45K) as the two-year U.S. Treasury yields last up 7.18 basis points at 4.406% and longer dated yields also edged higher. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with expectations of 4.1%. July’s job number was also revised up by +43,000 jobs and is now positive for the month. The spike in Treasury yields also boosted the dollar on the data and erased gains for the week in the precious metals sector with gold and silver sliding.

Artificial-intelligence stocks getting a boost as in a strong to start for semis (SOX, AMD, SNDK, NVDA), optical stocks (COHR, LITE, AAOI), and other AI related plays (ALAB, CBRS), while profit taking place in software (MNDY, NOW, SNOW, WDAY) after a mixed round of results overnight as ASAN, EGAN, GWRE, PATH and ZS all slide after earnings). Retailers pressured again as LULU and OXM tumble on weaker earnings/guidance. Oil prices dip, but are on course to gain over 6% for the week as the U.S. and Iran resumed military exchanges in their conflict, now in its seventh month, while U.S. diesel prices hit a record high. A rally in oil prices combined with a much steeper increase in fuel prices has pushed inflation and government borrowing costs higher around the world and intensified warnings that the global economy might be heading for a hard landing. Bitcoin tumbles after payrolls data suggests more-hawkish Fed policy.

• Rare Earth sector: shares of MP, UUUU, CCJ, USAR were higher early after Reuters reported some Chinese suppliers refuse to ship rare earths despite having export licenses. Rare earths on agenda of planning sessions ahead of Xi visit to Washington. Prices high, shortages remain for material used in defense, Semiconductors, Aerospace and energy.
• Crypto sector: it has been a good two week run for the industry, with Bitcoin surging back past $81K late yesterday and boosting the likes of COIN, MSTR, HOOD and Bitcoin miners RIOT, MARA, others. HOOD had its price tgt raised to $135 from $115 at Deutsche Bank today to reflect the recent acceleration in Robinhood Chain fee revenue. HOOD CFO Verma recently noted that monetization on Robinhood Chain from developers varies by transaction size but can be thought of as a few basis points on average, with approximately half of the economics shared with Arbitrum.
• Food sector: Your grocery Bill might just get a little more expensive. Global food prices, tracked by UN’s FAO Food Price Index, rose 1.9% in August to their highest level since December 2022. CALM was downgraded to Hold from Buy at StoneX as while it continues to expect egg market conditions to improve, it believes the slow pace of this improvement now coupled with elevated input costs will temper Cal-Maine’s earnings power, and dividend payments, into FY28.

• BBCP +16%; on earnings as Q3 EPS $0.09 vs. $0.08 est.; revenue $116.8Mm vs. $110.2Mm est.; adj. EBITDA $30.4Mm vs est $28.51Mm; gross margin 38.7%; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $425Mm-$435Mm vs. $421.1Mm est.
• IOT +8%; shares rose on results as Q2 EPS/revs topped consensus ($0.20/$508.4M vs. est. $0.16/$483.3M) as crossed $2.1B in ARR with 30% y/y growth for the third consecutive quarter and raised FY27 EPS view to $0.76-$0.78 from prior $0.70-$0.72and upped its rev outlook as well.
• SNDK +6%; broad strength in the AI/semiconductor sectors this morning (MU, SKHY, WDCetc.) amid a rotation into the space broadly while software stocks see profit taking.
• SWBI +4%; Q1 sales rose 32% y/y to $112M topping consensus $98.7M on better EPS and gross margin 28.7%, up 280bps YoY, including a 260bps benefit from $2.9Mm of tariff refunds and guided FY27 revenue growth guidance approximately 5%-7% vs est +5.2%.

• ASAN -15%; non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 (est. $0.09), a 10.1% operating margin (est. 9.0%), down from 11.5% q/q, on revs $216.4M (est. $214.2M), but disappointing gross margins of 87.2% (est. of 88.6%), RPO of $522M (est. $558M), while guidance below consensus for Q3 and roughly in line for year.
• FICO -16%; after U.S. Director of Federal Housing Bill Pulte said on Thursday he directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by the U.S. Congress to support the housing market, to approve all lenders to use credit scoring system VantageScore.
• GWRE -21%; posted a Q4 EPS and rev beat (rose 15% y/y to $411.1M vs. est. $402.5M), and ARR rose 19% to $1.24B (but down from the 22% rise last quarter) but guided Q1 revs $372M-$378M below consensus $387.1M.
• LULU -17%; cut its full-year sales guidance again and realized a much larger than expected decline in sales as China continues to disappoint (sales -4% y/y); now sees FY sales to fall by 5%-7% to a range of $10.35B-$10.50B from $11.0B-$11.50B initially, missing the $11.03B estimate.
• OXM -14%; lowered full-year guidance due to softness at Lilly Pulitzer and macroeconomic pressures as sees 2026 net sales outlook to $1.43B-$1.47B from $1.48B-$1.51B and cuts FY26 adjusted EPS view to $1.60-$2.00 from $2.30-$2.70.
• TRU -8%; shares fell along with rival credit rating agency EFX along with Experian overseas after FHFA Director Bill Pulte accused the three major credit reporting agencies of overcharging American consumers, stating the practice ‘will end soon’.
• TSLA -5%; shares slipped as the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it has opened an audit into about 1,000 Tesla Cybercab vehicles, examining the process and technical data the EV maker relied on to claim compliance with federal vehicle safety standards.