Mid-Morning Look: September 15, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

As energy prices continue to climb (oil, diesel) and Treasury yields extend gains (10-yr above 5% and 30-yr highest in about 20 years), U.S. stock markets remain pressured with Wall Street eagerly awaiting clarity from the Fed tomorrow where their interest rate policy meeting is expected to show a rate hike of 25 bps. Brent crude topped $108 per barrel after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping threaten supply, with analysts warning of a sharp rally if a key Saudi pipeline remains offline beyond its five-to-seven-day inventory buffer. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 5% to its highest level since 2007, as markets price in a greater-than-92% probability of a Fed rate hike this week under Chair Warsh. Tack on Ai slowing growth concerns hitting the tech space yesterday (rebounding a bit today) after calls by some of the industry’s biggest names to slow frontier AI development, from “extremely fast” to “only somewhat fast,” not halt it. Today’s lone economic data point showed manufacturing in New York slow, with new orders falling but inflationary pressures rising. Early strength in energy (XLE) as oil rises and technology (XLK) as semis rebound following its tumble Monday, but the other nine S&P 500 sectors are lower, led by biggest drops in staples (XLP) and consumer discretionary (XLY). Expect choppy action again today ahead of the FOMC policy meeting tomorrow (then BOE on Thursday and BOJ on Friday).

• Restaurant sector: sector was broadly lower with notable declines for CMG, DRI, EAT, WING and others; PLAY shares fell after reported a substantial Q2 earnings miss, with revenue of $544.1M falling 2.3% below consensus and AEBITDA of $98.9M missing by 17.6% and EPS was loss of (-$0.27) versus consensus of $0.19; comparable sales improved sequentially to -2.9% from -5.4% in Q1, including improvement from -5.0% in June to -1.6% in July, but failed to quantify the Q3-to-date trend. Separately, Wells Fargo said they are getting serious about casual as they favor EAT into its Investor Day and said they are buying the TXRH dip; lean cautious into DRI FQ1 EPS.
• Beauty sector: ULTA was upgraded to Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raised the tgt to $525 from $450 saying ULTA is navigating industry headwinds better than expected. Post CFO meeting, they believe if the model were going to break…it would be happening by now (and it doesn’t seem to be). ELF price tgt raised to $118 from $100 at Bank America and Reiterate Buy on higher estimates for Rhode noting Rhode is launching on Sept 30th in Sephora Europe; BAML estimate an opportunity of $150-$200M in sales from the region.

• DELL +4%; as Ai related plays seeing a rebound today (COHR, AMD, CIEN) in hardware and optical sectors along with semis as investors take profits in software names.
• ETSY +3%; was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with a $90 price target citing the company’s AI search benefits, product improvements, and app engagement for the upgrade.
• VRA +13%; shares rallied behind earnings as Q2 revs rose to $71.65M topping consensus of $66M while reiterated FY 2027 sales and operating margin guidance as sees FY27 sales between $255M-4270M and non-GAAP operating loss improvement of at least 50% vs prior year loss of $21.7M.
• WAY +9%; after Reuters reports the company is exploring options, including a potential sale; the sale could return the healthcare software firm to private hands two years after going public in 2024.

• AXON -8%; shares tumbled after the maker of Tasers, body cameras and drones announces public offering of $1B,  0% convertible bonds to mature Sept 15, 2031, saying it intends to use net offering proceeds for general purposes, including to support growth and for potential investments and acquisitions.
• COIN -6%; weakness in crypto related stocks as Bitcoin, Ethereum prices fall ahead of voting on Clarity Act later in the day, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. The Clarity Act aims to create a regulatory framework for Cryptocurrencies, and had stalled thus far.
• ENVA -25%; after announced that it has withdrawn its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System related to the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp; reaffirms year guidance
• PLAY -11%; after reported a substantial Q2 earnings miss, with revenue of $544.1M falling 2.3% below consensus and AEBITDA of $98.9M missing by 17.6% and EPS was loss of (-$0.27) versus consensus of $0.19; comparable sales improved sequentially to -2.9% from -5.4% in Q1.