Mid-Morning Look: September 23, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

U.S. stocks were mostly flat overnight after the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record and the S&P 500 remains not far off its record highs, but a bounce in oil prices and Treasury yields (10-yr back to 5.04% and the U.S. 2-year yield soars 7bps above 4.85%, a 2-year high) after stronger S&P Global PMI figures renewed concerns about higher interest rate concerns/inflation sending stocks lower. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) posted a record close on Tuesday, but failed to eclipse the June 3rd all-time highs. The PHLX semiconductor index (SOX) has surged over 14% the last 5 trading days since the Fed rate cut and the QQQ’s have spiked from lows of $700 to above $747 on Tuesday during this same stretch in what has been a remarkable rise in technology stocks. But the rally has been very concentrated as half of Tuesday’s rise in the Nasdaq was attributable to four chipmaking companies: MU, SNDK, AMD and NVDA. Over the last week, the NDX is up 6.4% with half the gain is from FIVE STOCKS (MU, AMD, NVDA, INTC and META). Agentic proliferation remains the big theme around AI amid the Muse momentum (and META Connect keynote this evening) with the Street and financial press highlighting (and debating) early winners and losers. Energy prices remain a big deal as the proposal to ban US exports of diesel has gained traction in some corners of Congress and from the President…but the concept is also seeing broad pushback from analysts, economists, and industry officials. The American Petroleum Institute (API) argued export restrictions would wreak havoc on fuel markets, destabilize refinery operations, and create a global crisis that could ultimately pressure US prices higher. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives for a state visit today, with President Trump hosting a roster of US corporate leaders though no Chinese business delegation is expected. Gold and silver prices are dumping on spike in US dollar and Treasury yields while energy prices rebound after oil fell for last 5 days.

• Leisure sector: RCL said it had agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Caribbean resorts operator Sandals Resorts International for $3 billion, expanding the cruise company’s presence in land-based vacation experiences. FUN shares edged higher after the WSJ reported that activist investor Jana Partners was pushing the theme-park company towards a sale. EXPE announced it would allow Muse to access its platform, permitting users to plan trips through Meta’s personal AI agent.
• Restaurant sector: MCD held Investor Day today saying they plan to raise operating margins, launch a new multi-year employee training program and spend billions of dollars supporting franchisees’ equipment and tech upgrades. The plans are part of the fast-food giant’s new growth strategy, called McDonald’s > NEXT. CBRL reported Q4 revs fell -2% y/y to $849.3M but topped consensus of $832.7M while EPS of $0.99 came in above y/y thanks in part to tariff refunds; guided 2027 revs $3.32B-$3.4B, in line with expectations and sees EBITDA of $180M-$200M above ests of $180M.
• Consumer Lending/Financial Services: Several Wall Street firms defended the sector, which declined sharply on Tuesday on renewed AI-disintermediation fears tied to Meta’s Muse agent. Davidson said the sentiment driven sell off in names like EVER, QNST, TREE, MAX was overdone. The firm said When asked to find an auto policy, Muse routed to a third-party marketplace (Insurify) rather than returning quotes, evidence it lacks direct carrier rating access. The impact was felt across the entire financial services sector yesterday including banks, brokers and insurance (ALL, PGR, SCHW, etc.)

• IONQ +4%; after the quantum platform and foundry said it had achieved a major breakthrough by developing and testing the first real-time quantum error correction decoder.
• META +2%; holdings its annual conference today, as CEO Zuckerberg delivers his Connect keynote tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
• MSFT +1%; upgraded to Buy at Stifel and raised tgt to $575 from $530 saying “open-weight model advancement has boosted management’s LLM-agnostic strategy” as Azure & Copilot keep scaling.
• SMCI +2%; after saying it is now shipping NVDA NVL72 racks, which include 72 Rubin graphics processors and 36 Vera central processors in a liquid-cooled rack; racks include SMCI’s in-row cooling distribution units and optional rear-door heat exchangers to capture residual heat load
• WLDN +5%; agreed to acquire Mantis Intermediate Holdings, a Texas-based building controls company, for $285 million in cash; said the addition of Mantis will expand its presence in industries including data centers, healthcare, and food and beverage.

• IMVT -4%; after saying it plans to discontinue development of IMVT-1402 in cutaneous lupus erythematosus after drug fails to achieve statistical significance on the study’s main goal.
• INNV -11%; after prices 10,000,000 share secondary offering at $9.25 per share.
• KBH -2%; reported Q3 adj. EPS of $1.09, above consensus of $0.89 as outperformance was primarily driven by the HB EBIT margin 63bps along with interest and JV Income. Negatively, homebuilding revs fell -20% y/y (units -19%, Asp -1%) were in line and unit orders fell -12% y/y vs. consensus -2%.
• MCD -4%; Investor Day today saying they plan to raise operating margins, launch a new multi-year employee training program and spend billions of dollars supporting franchisees’ equipment and tech upgrades. The plans are part of the fast-food giant’s new growth strategy, called McDonald’s > NEXT
• PAYX -6%; missed Q1 revenue estimates at its largest segment, management solutions, reported at $1.21B vs. est. $1.23B, sending shares lower; overall Q1 revs $1.63B was in-line with consensus and EPS of $1.34 just above ests $1.23; expects fiscal 2027 total revenue growth of 5% to 6%.
• RCL -4%; said it had agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Caribbean resorts operator Sandals Resorts International for $3 billion, expanding the cruise company’s presence in land-based vacation experiences
• VOYG -12%; after announced a $350M convertible debt deal