Mid-Morning Look: September 30, 2026

Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

U.S. stocks open higher on this final trading day of the month and quarter (Q3) which has been dominated by massive moves higher in Treasury yields and energy prices. The inflationary fears have weighed on sentiment/but not necessarily major averages during September and Q3, but helping market sentiment today was a softer than expected inflation reading as the Core PCE Price Index, a metric closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers, increased 0.2% M/M in August, less than the +0.3% consensus level and also came in below views on a Y/Y basis. Jobs reading was better too as  U.S. private sector employment climbed by +90K in September, beating the +70K forecast and accelerating from +36K in August, per ADP (ahead of nonfarm payroll data on Friday). Interest rate hike expectations slid on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Vice Chair John Williams pushed back against market pricing for back-to-back hikes, taking the implied probability of an October rate rise from around 70% to sub-50%. He emphasized that after September’s rate hike, there was no urgency to tighten again immediately, noting that the FOMC can afford to wait for more data and assess underlying trends before committing to another increase, which likely occurs at the December meeting. Today’s cooler core PCE inflation data also helped back that sentiment, which is lifting interest rate sensitive names. Semis will be back in focus tonight, especially memory with Micron (MU) earnings on desk. In other tech news, the FTC is opening a sweeping probe into Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI labs to uncover the potential dangers their technology poses to consumers, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

• Inflation data improved as the Fed’s favored inflation reading, the September Core PCE Price Index rose +0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus and +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%). The core PCE on Y/Y rose +3.0% vs. +3.3% consensus and +3.0% prior (revised from +3.3%).
• Headline September PCE Price Index rose +0.3% M/M vs. +0.4% consensus and +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%) and rose +3.4% Y/Y vs. +3.7% consensus and +3.4% prior (revised from +3.7%).
• U.S. Q2 GDP growth estimate was revised to +2.2% Q/Q, annual rate, vs. +1.5% in the second estimate and +2.5% in the prior quarter (revised from +2.1%). Personal consumption expenditures: +3.8%, annual rate, vs. +3.4% in the third estimate and +0.5% prior. Corporate profit growth was revised lower to a rate of 7.7% from 8.2%, compared to the 0.5% growth seen in Q1 2026.
• International trade in goods balance stood at -$132.6B in August, vs. -$114.8B consensus and -$118.9B prior (revised from -$118.8B). Exports of goods for August were $203.4 billion, $3.7 billion more than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $336.1 billion, $17.4 billion more than July imports.
• Sept. Chicago PMI report business index at 58.8; above consensus est 51.0.

• Online travel & Lodging sector: Truist said global travel trends remain generally resilient; OTA investor sentiment not so much especially post-Muse news. The firm lowers BKNG price target goes to $216 from $242 and EXPE to $288 from $309 while reducing multiples on Muse sentiment.it finds the general resiliency of global travel has again taken a back-seat to investor focus on Ai threats, now Meta’s Muse. If consumers continue to book via traditional channels with no meaningful changes to take rates, the OTA bull case may strengthen considerably.
• Bank sector: PEBO agreed to buy CBNK in all-stock deal in a deal valued at $43.75 per share based on $39.41 price as shareholders to receive 1.11 shares of Peoples for each capital share in a total deal valued at about $728.10M. In research, Wells Fargo downgraded BOKF to Underweight as sees near-term EPS risk and a stretched valuation, leaving them cautious near term; cut BKU to Equal Weight citing downside risk to Q326 EPS (5% below consensus) and softening 2027 EPS visibility and upgraded PNFP to Overweight saying three quarters post-close, the MOE integration appears to be tracking ahead of investor concerns.

• FDS +2%; posted Q4 revs $635.5M vs. est. $630M on EPS bet ($4.52 vs. $4.33) as Q4 organic revenue grew 7.1%, slightly beating analyst expectations citing commercial execution and AI momentum as drivers of organic growth; now sees FY27 adjusted EPS $19.25-$19.65, which is below consensus $19.72.
• GME +4%; CEO Ryan Cohen reveals the purchase of 447,000 of co’s Class A stock for prices between $23.4753 and $23.4499 per share, roughly worth about $10.56M. Cohen’s direct holdings now stand at 40.95 mln shares, representing a 8.12% stake in GME
• HOOD +5%; announced new products and capabilities at annual Summit: a fully embedded Ai-native experience called Robinhood Agents, the launch of perpetual futures and company financial KPI event contracts for US customers, and the expansion of equity trading to a 24/7 weekend schedule.
• HPE +5%; said it won a $1.2B order of AMD’s Helios AI rack from cloud infrastructure company Vultr. The company also increased its outlook for 2027, citing gains in networking.
• SNPS +3%; signs $1B+ multi-year custom silicon deal with AMZN which will use Synopsys silicon IP and engineering software across its custom chip portfolio, including Nitro, Graviton and Trainium. Amazon will also become the lead customer for Synopsys’ application-optimized silicon IP business.

• CBRS -6%; shares declined after reports that OpenAI’s latest GPT6.1 SOL Ultrafast is NOT running on Cerebras but is instead running at a low batch size on Nvidia GPUs.
• FICO 2%; extends prior day declines following the FHFA’s decision to place VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO on the same loan level pricing adjustment pricing Grid.
• JBL -7%; slipped despite Q4 results/guidance beating; reported Q4 revs rose 28.6% y/y to $10.62B vs. est. $9.71B and EPS $4.40 vs. est. $4.07 and guided annual adjusted earnings per share of $17.55, above analysts’ estimates of $16.87 and revs of $44.5B, topping expectations
• MAT -3%; shares fell after announcing longtime CEO Ynon Krei is leaving, as board member and CEO of Condé Nast, Roger Lynch takes over.
• MRNA -6%; was downgraded to Sell at Citigroup after rising (+222%) since INTerpath-001’s interim topline, while raise PT to $80; says while intismeran could become a market leading therapy in melanoma, believes the Re-rating now reflects successful expansion in many tumor types and unrealistic implied sales
• NOC -4%; after BA was selected to build the US Navy’s next-generation stealth fighter, and beating out rival NOC for the development contract, worth $20 billion, to produce test aircraft.
• VST -2%; along with weakness in CEG and NRG after FERC issued an order on PJM’s July 31 filing. That filing was the one-time RBP meant to cover the ~6.8 GW shortfall from the 2028/29 Base Residual Auction, with a bid window that was supposed to open Sept. 30. FERC suspended the tariff revisions until February 28, 2027, and opened a paper hearing on unresolved issues